Medivation (AMEX:MDV)
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Dutton Associates continues its coverage of Medivation Inc. (AMEX:MDV)
reiterating a Strong Speculative Buy rating and a $27.00 price target.
The 12-page report by Dutton senior analyst Wayne T. Lottinville, CFA is
available at www.jmdutton.com as
well as from First Call, Bloomberg, Zacks, Reuters, Knobias, and other
leading financial portals.
Medivation Inc. recently said that preclinical data suggest that the
Company’s lead development candidate for
hormone-refractory prostate cancer treatment is effective in a mouse
model of the disease. Results of the research showed treatment was
associated with a significant dose-dependent reduction in tumor volume
in human hormone-refractory prostate tumors grown in mice. In October,
Medivation announced compelling Phase 2 clinical results for the
treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. Not only did
treated patients show an improvement over placebo, but also they
demonstrated a significant improvement over baseline for all five
endpoints of the study. In Huntington’s
disease, the Company initiated a two-part Phase 1-2a clinical trial in
October 2006. The second phase of the study is expected to begin in the
first half of 2007 with efficacy data reported in the second half of
this year. Based on the dramatic and promising results from Medivation’s
Phase 2 Alzheimer’s study, on the recently
announced preclinical results in the Company’s
prostate cancer investigation, and on our perceptions of management’s
capabilities, we believe that the Company has a better than average
opportunity to clear regulatory hurdles and ultimately win FDA approval
for one or more of its development programs. We assume that Medivation
wins approval of its drug candidate for treatment of Alzheimer’s
by 2011 and that by 2013 sales reach $1.3 billion. Discounting a
price-to-sales multiple of 5x, we calculate a 2008 price target of
nearly $27.00 per share. Based on this price target and timeline, we
rate Medivation’s shares a Strong Speculative
Buy.
About Dutton Associates
Dutton Associates is one of the largest independent investment research
firms in the U.S. Its 31 senior analysts are primarily CFAs and have
expertise in many industries. Dutton & Associates provides continuing
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The cost of enrollment in our one-year continuing research program is US
$35,000 prepaid for 4 Research Reports, typically published quarterly,
and requisite Research Notes. Dutton Associates received $35,000 from
the Company for 4 Research Reports with coverage commencing on
5/04/2005. We do not accept payment of our fees in company stock. Our
principals and analysts are prohibited from owning or trading in
securities of covered companies. The views expressed in this research
report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about the subject
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compensation received by us is in any way related to the specific
ratings or views contained in this research report or note. Please read
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