EARNINGS PREVIEW: US Chemical Cos Weighed Down By Demand Woes

TAKING THE PULSE: Despite signs that business is picking up, or at least stabilizing, major U.S. chemical makers' results for the latest quarter are likely to reflect a continuing scramble to cope with demand woes. Standard & Poor's said in late September that quarter-to-quarter volume was improving, and that results are being helped by companies' cost and spending cuts, as well as lower raw-material prices. Nevertheless, most of the bellwether industry's biggest players are expected to report double-digit percentage profit and revenue declines.

 
   COMPANIES TO WATCH: 
 
   DuPont Co. (DD) - reports Oct. 20 
 

Wall Street's Expectations: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters project third-quarter earnings of 33 cents a share on revenue of $6.16 billion, down from 40 cents and $7.3 billion, respectively, a year earlier.

Key Issues: DuPont in July credited government stimulus spending and customers' restocking for a slight uptick in business. Cost-cutting and agribusiness revenue growth also helped it beat second-quarter expectations, but Chief Executive Ellen Kullman said she expected third-quarter volume to remain below year-ago levels. The company has continued to branch out from its traditional chemicals business, recently investing more than $120 million to boost solar-panel capacity.

 
   Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) - reports Oct. 22 
 

Wall Street's Expectations: The company is expected to post earnings of 9 cents a share on revenue of $11.87 billion, down from 46 cents and $15.41 billion, respectively, a year ago.

Key Issues: Dow Chemical in July forecast an upswing in third-quarter business conditions, but Chairman and CEO Andrew Liveris ruled out a significant turnaround for the rest of the year. The company is in the midst of reorganizing its business to absorb its $16.3 billion acquisition of Rohm & Haas and manage the heavy debt load it incurred in the purchase. Dow has been selling assets, most recently the $1.68 billion sale of its Morton Salt business.

 
   Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) - reports Oct. 22 
 

Wall Street Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings of $1.13 on revenue of $1.33 billion. The prior-year figures were $1.33 a share and $1.82 billion.

Key Issues: The maker of specialty chemicals, synthetic fibers and plastics issued a surprisingly upbeat third-quarter forecast in July as demand improved slightly after customers' inventory cuts. But CEO Jim Rogers cautioned that he expected second-half demand to remain near then-current levels, with raw material and energy costs rising slightly. Sales in the company's largest unit, performance chemicals, fell 51% in the second quarter.

 
   Ashland Inc. (ASH) - reporting date to be announced 
 

Wall Street's Expectations: Analysts estimate fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 90 cents a share on revenue of $2.07 billion. A year ago, the company reported a 15-cent loss on revenue of $2.22 billion.

Key Issues: Chairman and CEO James O'Brien said in July demand could remain flat for the "foreseeable future." Ashland saw volume declines in all businesses except its Valvoline motor-oil unit during the prior quarter. Like Dow Chemical, Ashland is trying to pay down debt from an acquisition - in this case, its $2.6 billion purchase last year of Hercules.

(The Thomson Reuters estimate and year-earlier earnings may not be comparable due to one-time items and other adjustments.)

-By Mike Barris, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2330; [e-mail]