ADVFN Logo

We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.

Trending Now

Toplists

It looks like you aren't logged in.
Click the button below to log in and view your recent history.

Registration Strip Icon for discussion Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.

ARU Arla Foods

70.75
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Arla Foods LSE:ARU London Ordinary Share GB0002577657 ORD 2P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 70.75 0.00 00:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 70.75 GBX

Arla Foods Uk (ARU) Latest News

Real-Time news about Arla Foods (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles

Arla Foods Uk (ARU) Discussions and Chat

Arla Foods Uk Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
19/9/200822:43Aurelian Resources: Gold Exploration in Ecuador10
17/4/200719:41Arla Foods: UK's top dairy484
03/6/200508:45Arla Foods: UK's top dairy-
11/3/200509:33Arla Charts-
27/11/200411:37ARLA UK tipped in Daily Telegraph28

Add a New Thread

Arla Foods Uk (ARU) Most Recent Trades

No Trades
Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type

Arla Foods Uk (ARU) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 15/1/2007 19:58 by tiredoldbroker
QuePassa, I think you are ignoring my point here. You again refer to DCG being on a p/e of 24, but you fail to make valid comparisons. That p/e relates to DCG's eps in the year to 31/3/06 and is the unadjusted eps - i.e. you have chosen the lowest possible basis for earnings for DCG without doing a comparable exercise for ARU.

Even in that period, DCG reported adjusted eps (i.e. adding back exceptionals, just like ARU does) of 40.3p. You ignore the corporate activity by DCG since 31.3.06, including the deal to buy Express' doorstep business (described as "highly earnings accretive" for DCG), the sale of its commodity cheese business, and the very substantial St Hubert purchase.

Partly due to these deals, DCG can put forwards a good case for steadily rising eps - from 40 in 2006 to 45 in 2007 and 52 in 2008, and better quality of earnings as well.

If you were to have a fairly similar look at ARU you could say that in the year to Sept 05 ARU had earnings of 1.9p unadjusted - in which case the exit p/e at 71p would be over 37 ! For the year to Sept 06 ARU still only reported basic eps of 2p, ignoring the loss on discontinued operations, so the p/e for ARU comparable to the p/e of 24 you keep quoting for DCG is either 35 or 37, depending which year you take for comparison. If you want to base ARU's exit price on adjusted eps, you have to adjust DCG's eps the same way. In which case, ARU is still going out on a premium to DCG.

So however you look at it, if you make a level playing field comparison, ARU is exiting on a higher p/e to that of DCG. But the basic fact remains that neither you nor anyone else have put forwards factually-based forecasts of higher future eps for ARU, and a business will, at the end of the day, have a value which is a multiple of earnings. For ARU, with limited and erratic prospects, and a patchy record, an exit p/e of over 14 is really quite a good price, and you have yet to show otherwise.
Posted at 15/1/2007 12:42 by damofarl
quepassa; as i said before 72 was based on year high, and i fear that aru's response will be to you, that which amba put to them in 'agreeing' price.....the price is a 50% premium to pre announcement and a 12 month high (i think there will be a special divi), which in black and white represents a fair premium. We on here have argued before that the share price was engineered down by the heavy investment in plant (now finished, surprise, surprise). If they had merely churned assest, profits would have been higher for the last 2 years, and the share price would not have drifted down so much against both the market and their competitors. On that basis if the share price was say 60, and they approached with the current premium, 90 would have seemed 'generous', wouldn't you say? ARU also 'invested' a lot in winning major supermarket contracts, at low margin/cost to prove to the major retailers that they could deliver the national service required by them (previously, it was a bit regionalised). ARU have delivered on these contracts and their service is highly rated by these customers. In such a commodotized product, i think the service will give them leverage on contract renewals, at better margins, allowing their status as the 'biggest' to flow through in profit as well as volume. Also, ARU's drive to cut costs, prompted by the oil hike last year is starting to pay benefits...they use to pay people to take the rubbish away...now they get paid, just an indicator of the attention to detail which is sweeping through ARU, driven by amba's ETT Arla programme ('One Arla').

I'm sure others have spotted the value, but with amba's holding and milk market share it won't be a uk dairy concern. Cashflow might attract someone, but i don' see any hidden property value (Stourton is a sale and leaseback), so I don't see private equity. That leaves say a European dairy/food combine? I don't know why amba/Camprini talks fell through, but if Camprini were to bid for Aru, it would put them in a strong position vis-a-vis amba would it not?

One thing that came out ofthe weekend press was the price, so at least we were right that that wasn't the sticking point (Farmers Weekly says its the pensions)! Frankly, 71 plus share price divi is a done deal, and theres no option but to take the money...quepassa...we'll have to see if theres another share out there we have a common interest in soon! I hope you've done well on this (although I would have liked another 18 months). D.
Posted at 17/12/2006 13:30 by damofarl
I'd agree the pensions are probably the main reason holding up announcement, bearing in mind there are a number of different schemes to deal with (Claymore, Express, Arla etc.). Another consideration (delay) maybe dealing with the ARU jv's such as Claymore/Staplemead etc,- their partners may have first refusal clauses in the event of takover.ARU's board may also being pushing for a higher price, but realistically this is a non starter with amba's 51%. I still stick with 72 as with their control amba can argue that this is at a 12 month high, and a 40% premium to preannouncement share price It would be hard for ARU to argue with the black and white of that, even though personally i think amba have cleverly engineered the price down. I don't doubt an announcement is forthcoming; amba's year end was the same as ARu's but they've yet to post 05/06 accounts, i think they're holding it back to put 'ARU full control' news in the Board's statement, some good news to smooth over the coop's members dissapointment last year at the Campini merger failing.

At a guess of 72, i agree it seems strange that people are not taking the 10% upside, but then nothing is guarenteed; as for Wiseman/Dairy Crest laughing at the takeover, with ARU preoccupied and taking its eye of the ball, i'm not sure i would agree with this; whilst probably true of the last 2-3 years, i think amba's influence of ARU has been crucial in bringing a hotchpotch of disjointed assests to fruition, takinga strategic longterm view (rather than fire fighting the old Express/ARU way), and its very much buisness as usual for ARU.

Personally, my regret is that the offer is (will be) cash, and not shares in a incorporated amba, as frankly i think (at whatever takeout price) amba are getting the cream of ARU cheaply, and amba (for a coop) seem rather astute in their worldwide dealings, and would itself get taken out. Just my own ramblings of course! D.
Posted at 30/11/2006 22:18 by damofarl
Gerry, thanks for your kind words; here's a few more thoughts;

i'm no accountant, but when i read the a/c's there appeared to be no ghosts or extraorinaries. If you look at pension provision, i feel they've been a little conservative (i.e its better than it looks), and their are tax benefits for amba

Theres only three main players, and whilst there was intense contract negotiations a while ago, they are all sitting on visible supply contracts to plan/budget going forward, so there is stability going forward (for all three). Arla Uk has stability of supply from AFMP so they don't have to worry about going to the farmers market price wise; they can (set) know what their costs are going ahead, and have anadvantage over RW and Dairy Crest in this regard. That said theres not much volume gain to be had by anyone, so putting the various companies efficiencies aside how can RW's share price double in 18 mths and ARU's drop by 40% (pre talks), with ARU being the biggest volume producer? O.k RW are probably more efficient than ARU, but i believe ARU has won contracts at minimal/loss margins deliberately to a) lower RW vol, volume being crucial and b) to validate the investment in new/updated state of the art dairies. c) earn credibility with customers going forward (the tesco's of the world are focused on price of course, but they also want deliverance of service and i think Arla is strong here). Long term this is a winner, as increases/decreases in volume have a disproportianate effect on profits in milk, with RW the loser and Arla the gainer. ARU have spent 29% ofthe market cap in the last 2 years on updating dairies.....the Locerbie investment was a masterstroke, and a sign of intent that RW WOULD have the fight taken to them; one has to understand the nature of national supermarket contracts aligned with nations (i.e. Welsh, Scottish
)desire to see 'local' produce). ARU could not previously promote 'Scottish' milk as such as it might have been proccessed in Leeds or Manchester, but know they can. The takeover of safeways by Morrison only helped volume wise as Safeway was strong in Scotland, whereas Morrisons were non-existent

The nature of the food industry is that audits are regular, if only for food health point of view, but quality customers such as M & S, Sainsbury, Waitrose will do their own; from this amba will now how they are performing, without appearing to be making a (takeover) inspection, or 'sniffing around' to much; everything they want to know is visible.

Why did Arla Uk not do a share buyback when in the mid 40's? o.k. amba would get 51% of the benifit, but it would have lifted the sp, and hence the takeover premium-because amba didn't want it!

Personally i think ARU shares are worth nearly a pound, yes seriously, they've took a hit on winning contracts, and a hit on updating dairies, but that cost has all come short term, for long term gain; i have to say that this strategic forward long term thiniking would not have come about without amba, but that in itself tells why i think 72 share price is the mark. I think for pi's ArlUk even with a continuing amba 51%, would be a better return than a takeover lonterm, as then ARU would reverse the benefit and effectively have gained 51% support for a leaner more efficient Co. Pi's have taken the hit and amba is going to get the cream....

Milk being the commodity market it is, commodity prices are paid; Arla's Cravendale is the only premium (pure) milk product, notwithstanding RW's 'Fresh'n'Lo' (which is really only of Scottish significance), and I think ARU is the only one innovating in this market.

Sorry for rambling, but i wrote as i though; personally, i'd rather ARU continued as is, as i believe the profits (ex heavy previous investment) will flow through sharply, but that amba will get the benefits and not us; i stick with 72 and at current prices i would continue to buy for a quick 10% (6 weeks), or if a heavy investment you could turn a buck on the margin as noo downside on 72; amba will buy Arla, that is not in question, its when, but they won't overpay, as i agree that the deal has already beeen done; the delay is just tieing up the loose ends (AFMP, semployes share allocations (immediate on takeover i understand). tax benefit/implications).

Sit tight, but i don't think 80 (even though i do think its worth way more than that)D.
Posted at 30/5/2006 16:13 by deniscaff
ARU share price up over 7% as the rest of the market takes a hammering ? maybe an announcement is on the way !! AMBA aquisition or the disposal of the doorstep sector, Dairy Crest down 7% could they be buying it ?
Posted at 06/2/2006 14:55 by ptgint
deniscaff - its' by association AND by name that I think there will be an effect on ARU share price, particularly short term. Its' a shame as I've only bought in quite recently and had high hopes for this compamy.
Posted at 06/2/2006 14:46 by deniscaff
Adeyberry

I don't think the situation in the middle east is good news for any of parties involved, I was pointing out that ARLA AMBA which is a Danish farmers co-op is a different company to Arla foods uk Plc, ARLA AMBA export added value branded dairy products world wide and are share holders in ARU , while ARU operate in the uk and depend on processing and suppling liquid milk to the major uk supermarket's, IF The ARU share price is affected it will be by association not a loss of profit to the plc
Posted at 03/2/2006 16:52 by deniscaff
That would be Arla Amba and not Arla foods u.k and should not impact on Aru share price.
Where did the info come from ? and surely they mean a million in sales revenue and not a full cost !!
Posted at 12/1/2006 17:34 by gerry321
Free Market aru shares end Sept 2005 .....................around 120m or 20% of ARU
of which say 20m is in the hands of people who will hold indefinitely as long as the share price is rising or at least not falling much and there is no bid announcement from Amba.....
THEN for a free market of the remaing 100m shares.....
Traded vol from 3 Oct to 11 Jan 06...........................around 50m
Lets say 5m bought and sold once within this period and counted twice....leaves trade vol of around 45m bought and held by speculators ie you and me or MMs or submerged institutions directly ie below 3%
This 45m vol would be effectively gone from the free market
Leaving around 55m in the hands of possible sellers
If share price can climb from 55p to 70p in 3 months concurrent with a market shrinkage of around 40% how much further does the share price have to rise to to entice the remaining 55m to go on the table ?
If I were amba and were biding my time for a bid I would wait until the market dried up at the highest price I was prepared to bid without going public
This has to be less than the bid price.....and can`t be too close to it for the bid to retain its credibility
However for amba to be sure that the market really has dried up the share price has to plateau at a level where thin trading becomes the norm and the spread widens to a rediculous level
And Hence
if the share price continues to hover around 70p for a further month or so..... this may suggest that amba are at the max share price at which they will buy privately through nominees
and hence
An amba bid announcement in the region of 80p to 85p may be approaching if the share price continues to hover around 70p for a further month or so
Posted at 12/12/2005 23:37 by gerry321
Den
Youre absolutely right a stock shortage will be positive for the sp
However
Cos with shortages of stock seem to generate their own particular share price profile and share price graphs...........For some reason they don't seem to attract a lot of small shareholders
..willing to drive the share price up on their own.....
The main drivers seem to be MMs mopping up small deals then reselling them to Clients at a prearranged share price which is fitted into the share price movements without any impact whatsoever on the next trade
So
What we have with aru is similar to other Cos where there is a lot of stock held semi permanently by a major owner and some big institutions (ie over 65%)
eg
BWNG
AVE

These big players are effectively locked into the Co since any move to dump shares or make a big buy would as you say have a major impact on the sp
When these guys do decide to move the share price is affected sharply
I got into ave at 63p in dec 04 just before some big institutions decided to dump stock after a bad trading update
The share price fell to 48p and left me sitting on a biggie....I held on
In spring 05 the institutions started building a position again and the share price recovered to 70p.......I still held onto my holding and saw it fall back down to 63p at which point a rights issue was announced plunging the stock to 54p
I took up the rights issue and eventually sold at a 20% profit at 64p.....the share price is now around 73p as institutions buy in a tight market below the 3% level ahead of the dec 16 tradng update
I had a similar experience with bwng getting in at 106p and out at 162p
The moral of the story is that a shortage of stock cannot be hidden and thus when the big boys start buying the share price moves up albeit gradually by around 20% and sometimes more
Arla Foods Uk share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

Your Recent History

Delayed Upgrade Clock

By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions

Support: +44 (0) 203 8794 460 | support@advfn.com