By Collin Eaton and Russell Gold
A fleet of tankers full of Saudi oil is slowly making its way to
the U.S. Gulf Coast, threatening to worsen an already historic
oversupply of crude.
The Saudi crude, about seven times as much as the Gulf Coast
took from the country in a typical month last year, will fill
rapidly dwindling places to store oil, depress already low prices
in key shale regions and increase pressure on drillers from Texas
to North Dakota to shut off their wells.
"We're going to have some very severe short-term pain," said
Mark Papa, the ex-chairman of Centennial Resource Development Inc.
and former chief executive of EOG Resources Inc.
These tankers were loaded in March and early April when Saudi
Arabia was pursuing a strategy of increasing its output to drive
down prices and increase its share of key markets. Since then, the
U.S. brokered a deal with nearly two dozen countries, including
Saudi Arabia, for a historic cut to world-wide oil production. The
aim is to raise prices and stabilize oil markets.
Nonetheless, the 20 tankers holding a combined 40 million
barrels of crude are still headed to ports in Louisiana and Texas,
according to shipping sources and market intelligence firms Vortexa
Ltd. and Kpler Inc. They are due to arrive in Texas and Louisiana
through late May.
"This is the American energy producers' Pearl Harbor. We know
the ships are coming in, and yet nobody is doing anything about
it," said Kirk Edwards, president of West Texas oil company Latigo
Petroleum LLC. "Every barrel they're bringing in on those ships
backs out a barrel of oil produced here in the Permian Basin."
The slowly unfolding situation has begun to capture the
attention of U.S. politicians, some of whom are calling for the
U.S. to consider embargoes or other measures to stop the influx of
oil. Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota has expressed frustration
that Saudi Arabia would flood the U.S. market with discounted crude
at this moment.
"Don't let them unload on American soil," the Republican
lawmaker tweeted last week. He later exhorted President Trump to do
all he could to convince Saudi Arabia to route its oil
elsewhere.
President Trump is monitoring the situation and has said all
options are available in stabilizing energy markets, a senior
administration official said.
One possibility for the president would be to impose tariffs,
but observers said that is unlikely following the recent oil deal.
Francis Fannon, the U.S. State Department's most senior energy
official, said tariffs remain an option for the president, but "he
consistently said it was a lever he didn't think he would need to
pull."
The state-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco,
declined to comment.
The American Petroleum Institute, a powerful industry trade
group, opposed any interference in free trade for oil. "That's
actually the last thing we need," said Frank Macchiarola, the
group's senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory
affairs. "Reliance on foreign or imported crude is important for
refineries."
A substantial majority, if not all, of the crude coming from
Saudi Arabia had buyers, market sources said.
The industry is already facing a massive oversupply of crude,
driven by a historic drop in demand as billions of people stay home
to counter the spread of the coronavirus.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 19.2 million barrels last week,
according to the Energy Department, and the benchmark U.S. oil
price Thursday was at $19.87 a barrel, the lowest in 18 years. At
trading hubs in the Gulf Coast, Permian Basin in West Texas and the
Bakken Shale of North Dakota, crude traded for significantly lower.
In the Bakken, prices fell below $10 a barrel as sellers
outnumbered buyers.
Some companies have begun shutting in wells whose oil has
nowhere to go. Cimarex Energy Co. Chief Executive Thomas Jorden
said pipeline companies already have asked the Denver-based driller
to make voluntary output curtailments amid storage constraints,
even offering breaks on transportation fees.
"We would rather shut in some of that production than continue
to produce at these prices," Mr. Jorden said.
The Saudi oil surge is set to exacerbate that glut, starting
with the supertankers Awtad, Jana, Aslaf and Lulu, carrying 2
million barrels apiece, which are on track to arrive this month,
according to vessel-tracking data.
Most of the tankers are set to arrive in May, bringing almost 32
million barrels to Texas and Louisiana ports, though some may still
change their destination. It would be the largest month for Gulf
Coast imports of Saudi crude in more than six years, according to
Vortexa's forecast and Energy Department import data.
However, this might be the last surge of Saudi crude to head to
the U.S. Gulf Coast for a while. Following a 23-nation agreement to
cut crude production, Saudi Arabia on Monday raised the price of
oil it sells to U.S. refiners, making it less attractive to buy,
while it cut prices to Asia.
Timothy Puko contributed to this article.
Write to Collin Eaton at collin.eaton@wsj.com and Russell Gold
at russell.gold@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 17, 2020 06:44 ET (10:44 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.