By Nick Timiraos and Kate Davidson
Former Trump campaign adviser Stephen Moore, the president's
latest pick for a Federal Reserve Board seat, said the central
bank's recent policy pivot shows that he was right to criticize its
December interest-rate increase.
Shortly after that rate increase, Mr. Moore delivered a scathing
assessment of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in a December interview
with The Wall Street Journal, calling him "totally incompetent" and
saying he should resign.
Mr. Moore said in a Journal interview Monday that the Fed's rate
increase was a mistake but that he could have chosen his words
about Mr. Powell more carefully. "They made a mistake. Nobody's
perfect. They've admitted they made a mistake," he said. "Was I
harsh? Yes, and I wish I hadn't been."
Fed officials have significantly altered their policy path since
the December meeting, though they haven't explicitly called the
December rate increase a mistake. In early January, Mr. Powell
signaled the Fed was moving to the sidelines after raising rates
four times last year.
In new projections last week, most officials projected no rate
increases this year if the economy performs as expected. Officials
also announced they will end the runoff of their asset portfolio in
October.
Mr. Powell attributed the change to greater worries that global
growth could weaken amid recent market volatility and rising
political uncertainty, partly the result of an increase in trade
tensions.
The Fed's policy pivot is "an example of where I was right, and
where my critics were wrong," said Mr. Moore Monday.
A Fed spokeswoman declined to comment.
Mr. Trump's decision to nominate a sharp critic of the Fed's
current leadership represents his most concrete step to influence
its policy following his monthslong criticism of its interest-rate
increases.
Mr. Moore's impending nomination shows "the attacks on the Fed
and Powell won't stop no matter what the Fed does," Ian Katz, a
financial policy analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, said in a note
to clients on Sunday. "It was never plausible that the pause in
interest rate hikes would silence [Trump's] criticism of the
Fed."
Because Republicans increased their Senate majority after last
fall's elections, Mr. Moore faces better odds at being confirmed
than two earlier White House picks whose nominations languished.
The extra cushion -- Republicans how have 53 seats, up from 51 last
year -- means Mr. Moore could win confirmation without any
Democratic support and even a couple of GOP defections.
Until now, Mr. Trump's Fed nominees largely have been
nonideological pragmatic policy experts who are well regarded
within the central banking establishment.
Mr. Moore, who has a master's degree in economics from George
Mason University and finished his undergraduate studies at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, breaks with that
pattern because he has spent his career as a more partisan champion
of lower taxes.
Mr. Moore founded the Club for Growth, the conservative advocacy
group, is a former member of The Wall Street Journal's editorial
board, and served as chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, a
conservative think tank. Those bona fides enabled him to advocate
for Mr. Trump's insurgent primary campaign in 2016 when many
Republicans were skeptical.
Republican senators defended Mr. Moore's credentials on Monday.
"Steve is a sunny optimist and a thoughtful economist," said Sen.
Ben Sasse (R., Neb.). "Steve's nomination has thrown the
card-carrying members of the Beltway establishment into a tizzy,
and that says little about Steve and his belief in American
ingenuity, but a lot about central planners' devotion to
groupthink."
In a statement, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) said he
expected to support Mr. Moore's nomination.
Sen. David Perdue (R., Ga.) believes Mr. Moore is "highly
qualified for the position on the Fed," a spokeswoman said
Monday.
Still, Mr. Moore's confirmation fight could be bruising because
it might animate concerns that Mr. Trump will be able to politicize
the central bank, which has carefully defended its nonpartisan
approach to policy-making.
"Steve is a perfectly amiable guy, but he does not have the
intellectual gravitas for this important job," wrote Harvard
University economist Greg Mankiw, a former adviser to President
George W. Bush, on his blog Friday.
Mr. Moore could be pressed to explain to lawmakers why he went
from criticizing the Fed's moves to support economic growth earlier
this decade to calling for the Fed to halt its withdrawal of
stimulus last year.
Anyone "who goes to the grocery store...knows our monetary
policy is completely out of control, that inflation is here," Mr.
Moore said in 2011 in an interview with Newsmax.com. "All of this
easy money has become like a narcotic for the U.S. economy," he
said.
In 2013, Mr. Moore said the Fed needed a chair with the "guts"
to take away the proverbial punchbowl and in 2014, he advocated
that the Fed ramp up sales of the long-term bonds it bought after
the financial crisis to support growth.
On Monday, Mr. Moore said his worries about an inflation surge
were mistaken. "The prediction that I and many made, that we would
have an inflationary effect from these policies, was wrong," he
said. "The proof is in the pudding. We didn't get inflation."
Mr. Moore said Monday the Fed should consider cutting interest
rates to reverse two quarter-percentage point increases it made in
September and December.
Still, Mr. Moore said he wasn't advocating for monetary
stimulus. He said the Fed should instead seek to keep prices and
the dollar stable, and he said recent declines in commodity prices
raised concerns about deflationary forces in the broader global
economy.
"I want to make this very clear: I'm not a dove at all. I'm an
inflation hawk. I'm also a deflation hawk," he said. "The
fundamental point of disagreement here is whether or not we are in
a deflationary environment."
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption
expenditures price index, rose 1.75% for the year ended December,
below the Fed's 2% target. A separate measure that excludes
volatile food and energy prices rose 1.9%.
Meanwhile, an index that measures the value of the dollar
against a basket of foreign currency has been relatively stable
over the past 10 months. It is up 7% over the last year but is
still 7% below the recent highs seen after Mr. Trump's election in
late 2016.
Mr. Moore couldn't easily shape policy as one of six Fed board
members and one of 11 voters on the central bank's rate-setting
committee. But he could still garner attention to his policy views
by delivering speeches and dissenting on policy votes.
If Mr. Moore is ultimately confirmed and Mr. Trump wins
reelection next year, Mr. Moore could become a candidate to succeed
Mr. Powell when his term ends in February 2022, subject to Senate
confirmation. Mr. Powell and his two predecessors, Ben Bernanke and
Janet Yellen, had served as Fed governors before being named
chair.
Mr. Moore on Monday disputed criticism that he would serve as a
puppet for the president.
"I'm a big fan of the president, and I'm a big fan of what he's
done for the economy," he said. But he pointed to his opposition to
Mr. Trump's steel tariffs as counterproductive as an example of his
independent thinking. "I'm not a sycophant for Trump," he said.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com and Kate
Davidson at kate.davidson@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2019 17:55 ET (21:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.