NEW
YORK, July 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index®
(LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2 percent in
June 2024 to 101.1 (2016=100),
following a decline of 0.4 percent (upwardly revised) in May. Over
the first half of 2024, the LEI fell by 1.9 percent, a smaller
decrease than its 2.9 percent contraction over the second half of
last year.
"The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction
was smaller than in the past three months," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager,
Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "The
decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations,
weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased
number of initial claims for unemployment. However, due to the
smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI's long-term growth
has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken
together, June's data suggest that economic activity is likely to
continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently
forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth
down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic
Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.3 percent in
June 2024 to 112.6 (2016=100), after
increasing by 0.4 percent in May. The CEI grew 0.6 percent over the
first half of 2024, about half its growth rate of 1.3 percent over
the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll
employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing
and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the
data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of
the index improved in June, with industrial production making the
largest positive contribution to the CEI for the second consecutive
month.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index®
(LAG) for the U.S. inched up by 0.1 percent in June 2024 to 119.5 (2016=100), partially
reversing a decline of 0.2 percent in May. The LAG's six-month
growth rate rebounded to 1.2 percent over the first half of this
year, substantially higher than its 0.3 percent increase over the
second half of 2023.
The next release is scheduled for Monday, August 19, 2024, at 10 A.M.
ET.
Summary Table of
Composite Economic Indexes
|
|
|
|
|
2024
|
|
|
|
6-Month
|
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
Dec to Jun
|
Leading
Index
|
101.7
|
|
101.3
|
r
|
101.1
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
-0.6
|
|
-0.4
|
r
|
-0.2
|
|
-1.9
|
|
Diffusion
|
30.0
|
|
40.0
|
|
60.0
|
|
40.0
|
|
Coincident
Index
|
111.8
|
r
|
112.3
|
r
|
112.6
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
-0.1
|
r
|
0.4
|
|
0.3
|
|
0.6
|
|
Diffusion
|
50.0
|
|
100.0
|
|
100.0
|
|
75.0
|
|
Lagging
Index
|
119.6
|
r
|
119.4
|
|
119.5
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.4
|
r
|
-0.2
|
r
|
0.1
|
|
1.2
|
|
Diffusion
|
57.1
|
|
28.6
|
|
57.1
|
|
64.3
|
|
p
Preliminary r Revised c
Corrected
|
Source: The
Conference Board
|
Indexes equal 100 in
2016
|
|
|
|
About The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic
Index® (CEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic
system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are
constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the
economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual
component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly
correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that
anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by
around seven months.
The ten components of the Leading Economic
Index® for the U.S. are:
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods
excluding aircraft orders
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
- Leading Credit Index™
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
The four components of the Coincident Economic
Index® for the U.S. are:
- Payroll employment
- Personal income less transfer payments
- Manufacturing and trade sales
- Industrial production
To access data, please visit:
https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is
the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for
What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan,
not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the
United States. ConferenceBoard.org
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