Zanaga Iron Ore Share Discussion Threads

[xcap1] 28/12/2023 09:03

We should now see 'investors' buying for the long term , and yes traders for the short that is inevitable But there is now or should be a sustainable trend change Management must also be focused on accelerating the progress having waited 14 years for this phase of development

[extrader] 28/12/2023 08:57

That's what she said.

[bbanker] 28/12/2023 08:53

A good rise but you ain’t seen nothing yet.

[extrader] 28/12/2023 08:26

Hat tip to Minor Miner on lse

"ZIOC have really got a shuffle on here, suggesting considerable urgency and progress behind the scenes. A Hydropower Power Partnership has been trailed as a key milestone and one due in 1Q24, so we are ahead of the game on this. As per September 23:

Hydro power partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)

CMEC ARE HUGE. Furthermore this July they signed a moU with Ad Ports to establish a Strategic Cooperative Relationship:

Abu Dhabi, UAE – 20 July 2023: AD Ports Group (ADX: ADPORTS), the leading global facilitator of trade, logistics, and industry, and China Machinery Engineering Group Corporation (CMEC GROUP), a state-owned key enterprise directly managed by the central government of China, have recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to establish a strategic cooperative relationship.

The MoU details the ways in which the two companies will explore potential opportunities globally, but particularly in the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, East Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe.

Under the agreement, the two parties will cooperate within various fields and sectors, including global industry and infrastructure development, financing, building, operation, and maintenance, global economic cities and free zones development, and global logistics.

hxxps://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2023/07/20/ad-ports-group-and-china-machinery-engineering-group-corporation-sign-memorandum-of-understanding

> As I say this all implies considerable progress, and significant synergies, behind the scenes..."

GLA

[bbanker] 28/12/2023 07:28

At last things are beginning to happen. The company is sitting on a very valuable site and it is highly lightly that we will start to see that value recognised in the share price which has, in the past, been considerably above current value despite little activity over recent years. China’s involvement must be good news in this instance.

[greenelf] 28/12/2023 07:17

The first MOU signed, with a number more in the pipeline (wink). The fact that all these are progressing in parallel speaks volumes as to the high level coordination and commitment of all parties concerned. None of the proposed MOUs would 'be much' in isolation. The strategic investor must thus be very serious and credible for all the parties to spend time on this. This has a long long way to rise to its inherent value!! This could look very different by the end of Q1 (or maybe even 9 January 2024!).

[extrader] 27/12/2023 00:32

I'm an investor in the litigation financier Burford Capital (BUR), who only tend to invest in cases that they intend/expect to win . Most recently in a protracted action against Argentina.

They're financing Sundance's litigation (handled by Clifford Chance) against Congo and Cameroon for the (alleged) illegal expropriation of the concessions at Mbalam and Nabeba awarded to an obscure Singapore-based entity, Coconut Logic.

Here's a very timely update.

hxxps://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/pdf/6ad8e174-4b32-490e-b8de-419c11afb789/Chairman39s-Address-2023-AGM.pdf

And this is analyst comment re BUR :

hxxps://moiglobal.com/artem-fokin-201901/
.."If Burford is involved in a case, it generally does not disclose it, but sometimes it does, which sends a powerful signal to the other party. This is how Burford puts it: “We believe that the disclosed presence of Burford in a case should make a defendant think twice about its position as it would then know that a dispassionate, highly skilled, profit-motivated entity had evaluated the plaintiff’s case and concluded that it had real merit.”

BUR's biggest investor @ 10.5% shareholding is the AlRajhi family.
hxxps://www.arabnews.com/node/2130566/business-economy

Conclusion : should discourage chancers...and an 'advisory'to any credible investors in Congo mining concessions.

HTH and ATB

[runnerpete22] 21/12/2023 08:58

Almost a certainty now that huge news is just around the corner. It has certainly been a long time coming.

Its oft said "no way would I want to be out of this from now on" and only 10 ish trading days between now and the MFM.

NAI DYOR etc etc GLAH

[extrader] 20/12/2023 16:41

ExTwitter

Zanaga Iron Ore
@Zanaga_Iron_Ore

Pleased to confirm that #ZIOC’s CEO, Mr Marty Knauth, and other members of the ZIOC team will be at the #FutureMineralsForum in Riyadh from 9-11 Jan 2024 to progress engagement with strategic partners

#steel #ironore #China #SaudiArabia #FMF #Zanaga #RepublicofCongo

2:04 PM · Dec 20, 2023 from Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia·

GLA

[extrader] 18/12/2023 13:15

Good precis of where we're at :

Under 5/n, I believe it likely that the EPC partner is this company, Perth International Technology & Trade (Beijing) Co., Ltd,

website hxxp://www.psei.com.cn/, based on

(a) a reverse image search of upper left photo on p7 of the Nov presentation;

(b) this description (under Company News) :

.."Perth overseas part of the project dynamics

Release time:2023-10-16 11:22:56 Views:195

Perth overseas part of the project dynamics

1.Iron Ore Project （Congo）;

The project is located in the Democratic Republic of Congo [often confused with Congo-Brazzaville] and develops 30 million tonnes of high-grade iron ore concentrate per annum in two phases. The project includes mining, concentrators, slurry pipelines, ports and infrastructure. At present, Perth is in the process of updating the feasibility study, which is a feasibility study for bank-grade loans of international standards..." and

(c) under 'Scope of services', this description :

.."General contracting of the project

Release time:2023-10-31 15:33:45 Popularity:817

Kunming Perth has the qualification of construction engineering design, procurement, and construction general contracting (EPC), and can provide customers with the whole process of design, procurement, construction, commissioning and commissioning services. In terms of long-distance slurry transportation pipelines, we have an excellent design, construction and commissioning team, and rich team experience will create higher economic benefits for customers; According to customer needs and the actual situation of slurry pipeline engineering, Kunming Perth will provide the following targeted services:

1. Design, procurement, construction general contracting services (EPC);

2. Design, procurement, construction management, commissioning and commissioning services (EPCM);

3. Design, construction management consulting, commissioning and test services;

4. Design and procurement services (EP);

5. Design and technical services..."

(d) See also under 'scope of services' : Pipeline transportation ; and - first item under News- this :

(e) Perth has been awarded a current contract for a 12 million mt/year iron ore roll drying option in Brazil

Release time:2023-12-13 16:59:33 Popularity:30

.... Recently, it has been favored by Brazilian iron ore miners and won a pre-contract for the design of 12 million tons/year iron ore roller grinding and dry separation process in Brazil.

In 2023, Perth Beneficiation New Technology has signed research and design contracts for 3 large-scale iron ore concentrators in South America and Africa. With its high efficiency and process optimization, the new process of Perth beneficiation saves a lot of investment for the owner and reduces the production cost..."

Ignore the ref to DRC in (b).... note the dates under (b) to (e) - and the (perhaps) coincidence of a Phase 1 sized 12mtpa beneficiation plant pre-contract just announced in 'Brazil'.

'Geographical inexactitude ' or deliberate misinformation?

Could be for Vale itself of course...but Vale is also a candidate for involvement in the Zanaga mine, as equity, overall project management and/or source of 'green ore' for the 3 x plants its putting up in the Gulf with AbuDhabi, Oman and Saudi Arabia...so may be 'asking for a friend'.

IMO,NAI,DYOR, etc etc

ATB

[greenelf] 15/12/2023 12:11

Pressure is building..

[extrader] 15/12/2023 11:00

Top quality post from Jiving elsewhere

..."CEO. Marty’s LinkedIn states he was appointed as CEO in November, so he might have been in situ up to 6 weeks already. Noteworthy that the news was released on 14 December & not when it seems to have actually occurred in November. Is Elphick preparing for a week of news, that has been held back as it was before last year's AGM?

Board. A new CEO at such a critical time should be immediately be on the BOD. I expect he will be soon, but we might be waiting for a different BOD with at least one representative from the new strategic investor & possibly one less Glencore director. At present the agreement with Glencore as set out in RNS of 23.11.22 is that provided Glen hold 25% or more they get 2 BOD seats; between 10-25% they get 1 seat; under 10% none. If Glen sell part or all of their ZIOC holding to one or more strategic investors their representation may change to reflect their lower %.

JV vs Buyout. The appointment of a CEO could indicate that the project is proceeding as a JV & we should not therefore expect a buyout bid - unless perhaps a competing, losing strategic investor should decide to make one.

Structure. The Glencore transaction last year concentrated ownership of the Zanaga holding company Jumelles, 100% in ZIOC. It was always possible that strategic investor (s) would take a direct stake in Jumelles - ie an unlisted stake for a fixed price paid to ZIOC based around NPV. Leaving ZIOC with the remainder of Jumelles (a bit like the pre 2022 ZIOC arrangement with Glen). But now it seems possible, even likely, that strategic investors will join the project via ZIOC share transactions - secondary, primary or both.

Secondary/Primary. Potentially strategic investors could enter the project via a secondary purchase of all or part of Glencore’s stake. This would be mean all the monies passing to Glencore and not ZIOC & we would suffer no dilution. The BOD at the AGM is seeking authority to issue 20% or 126.6m new primary shares (with no pre-emptive rights) to a shareholder (s). This primary transaction would involve both funds flowing into the company & of course dilution. It is quite possible a strategic investor (s) would undertake both transactions - getting say, a 40% stake via a secondary purchase of 20+% from Glencore and a 20% primary issue from ZIOC.

Price. The last 13 months of negotiations & particularly the decision to seek new estimates from the Chinese EPC partner suggests to me there could have been prolonged haggling over terms & particularly pricing with strategic investor (s). An ‘NPV based share price’ for a secondary/primary transaction would be substantially higher than the current share price.

The 2019 Presentation (P20 graph) gave the crucial NPV estimates for Stage 1 @ 12m & Stage 1+ 2 @ 30m outputs based on the 2014 FS & a 65% Fe concentrate price at $110. The Stage 1, 12m NPV was just over $2b & the Stage 1+2, 30m NPV was just under $4b. The lower Chinese EPC costings & favourable changes in the iron ore market will have changed those estimates significantly upwards. Of course even if all parties agree on an NPV a strategic investor can still demand a discount to NPV.

An NPV based share price. To use very simple approximations (key variables apart from NPV being FX & ZIOC share count). But currently a $1b NPV equates approx to a share price of 125p. So the old range of NPV as above from $2-4b would mean a 250-500p NPV based share price. Optimistically taking a 500p NPV based share price, a primary sale of 126.6m shares would net ZIOC £633m or $808m at todays FX.

Gearing. The 2014 estimate of $2.2b was to have been funded by a mixture of equity and debt/project finance. Edison in their research report in 2014 suggested the proportions: “We believe that the overall equity cheque will be US$0.8-1.0bn, with the remaining funds coming in the form of infrastructure and EPCM related debt such as export credit financing. The company expects to source credit finance from multiple jurisdictions on attractive terms that normally pertain to infrastructure backed funding.“

99 in a post 13.12.23 suggested the equity:debt/project finance might be even more favourable ie needing less equity finance! Quote from 99: "With a Chinese builder you probably will get 70% of the build financed by Chinese banks, then you need someone to put up the remaining 30% in return for shares in the project (The Strategic Partner)"

With significantly lower costings expected from the 2023 Chinese EPC it is likely the equity component for Stage 1 @12mtpa would be at or lower than the $800m suggested by Edison. In conclusion, if ZIOC/Glen are able to find a strategic investor (s) willing to pay an NPV based share price of £5 (Zanaga NPV of $4b), the sale of the 20% primary stake would generate sufficient equity capital to finance Stage 1 of the project, the balance coming from debt/project finance....."

NAI, DYOR

GLA

[xcap1] 15/12/2023 10:02

Only a matter of time Runner, and I think the time is fast approaching Thanks for posting this as I completely missed it!I reckon by feb/march 24 the valuation/sp will look very different , could be sooner if the works programme is completed this side of 23I like the big about funding

[runnerpete22] 15/12/2023 09:07

Just cannot believe the lack of share price action here, especially after yesterdays RNS. and so much more news due within weeks, if not days.

It seems that most people missed this snippet yesterday, so, courtesy of MM over on LSE.....

Is funding already secured?14 Dec 2023 15:02
Going by ZIOC's own words and today's CEO appointment, project funding could already have been secured. This from Nov 22 at the time of the Glencopre agreement:

Employees and consultants

The Company does not expect any material changes to its current employees and / or consultants following Completion and to the delivery of the work programme in 2023. During this time, the Company will also seek to initiate discussions regarding the funding required for the development of the Project. Once funding has been secured and work on the development of the Project has commenced, the Company expects to recruit an executive team to meet the demands of the Company and the Project.

> Once funding has been secured and work on the development of the Project has commenced, the Company expects to recruit an executive team..

>> An 'executive team' starts with the CEO. So, has funding already been .secured?.......and then look at the CV of the new CEO

NAI DYOR etc etc. GLAH

[xcap1] 14/12/2023 09:31

All moving in the right direction

[extrader] 14/12/2023 08:57

Traders, folk who overcame their FOMO and had other needs/prospects...?
Remember that this was in the 2's a year ago...and 4 as recently as September.

[aja5] 14/12/2023 08:24

I’m more interested where all the other shares have come from??
We have certainly had more than the first tranche sold on the open market,so who is the seller??

[extrader] 14/12/2023 07:31

I imagine this tranche of Shard’s shares will command a better subscription price.

GLA

[runnerpete22] 30/11/2023 10:02

So much news due now anytime before the AGM, Dec 19th.

Like here, for a start.....hxxps://www.arabnews.com/economy

Life changing for those already in and those who get in before it is too late.

NAI DYOR GLAH

[extrader] 26/11/2023 12:46

The positive 'mood music' continues, this a recent Stifel comment.

Touches on various themes already discussed here.

hxxps://en.cdfund.com/media/blogs/the-structural-bull-market-in-commodities-is-just-beginning.html

ATB

[extrader] 09/11/2023 13:31

From the 2019 presentation it was $ 350m, (so, if anything, more since then...)

Value Engineering Opportunities

• Extensive engineering of the 30Mtpa staged development project

• >U$350m spent on extensive evaluation work including detailed technical studies and resource drilling

I also note that the new presentation is silent on the 'dirty bit ' of actually mining the stuff...

Again, from the 2019 presentation (p 11 'Mining') :

Capex Nil – contractor solution

Opex Mining contract in process of final estimation

Planning for the definition of pre-production resources in progress

• Mine plans prepared – to be refined following completion of product test work

• More than 250Mt of free-dig orebody material available to support the project

• Reputable Mining Contractor selected

• Preliminary scope and equipment list agreed

• Contract negotiation in progress.......

The [missing] updated NPV will have to factor in the revised EPC partner costings and maybe ( for the prospective buyers, a bit of 'sizzle' re possible value of a 60mtpa scenario).

They won't want to share any of this with PI's (what's the point, we're irrelevant at this stage) or distribute more generally, in case Big Den starts getting ideas....or his countrymen find out and start asking questions.

IMO

[runnerpete22] 09/11/2023 13:22

Update from todays meeting, courtesy of alwayshoping and minorminer over on LSE.

With the PIF-Ma'aden specifically tasked with securing (high grade) iron ore for their green steel industry:

“PIF is looking at Africa with great interest and I believe they will be in due course making some game-changing announcements about their intent to invest in Africa,” said Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih.

He added that Ma’aden and PIF’s joint venture – announced in January – is going to “invest in the critical minerals in Africa.”

Al-Falih said: “There is already $75 billion of Saudi investment deployed in Africa. It’s a good number, but I think we’re only scratching the surface given the great potential that we've talked about today.”

hxxps://www.arabnews.com/node/2405881/business-economy

[xcap1] 08/11/2023 13:44

I don't think it'll be long b4 the value of $300m spend on this project starts to come thru

[xcap1] 08/11/2023 13:40

Not worth doing the numbers too many 000s