Zanaga Iron Ore Share Discussion Threads

[extrader] 30/12/2020 11:58

Hi GTA5,

Well, there DO seem to be similarities ...

.."Mining Weekly had reported in November that the DX project was chosen as a 400 000 t/y starter project for the larger Kola underground mining project. The Kola project, at a $2-billion-plus capital cost, had proved difficult to fund, prompting Kore to switch focus to first developing the DX project...."

Puts the EPP, the beneficiation project (whatever became of that ?)and the Floating Port study in context.

Busy, busy, busy...

We're due a COIDIC/general progress update (promised 'towards year end') and the Second Tranche 7m share issueance OUGHT to be 'imminent'....and there's no news re this year's Retention Fee arrangement .."The total number of new ZIOC shares which could be issued in 2020 is yet to be determined and further announcements will be made at the relevant time..."

I'd like to think that ZIOC is keeping schtum because things are going on behind the scenes and they don't want to rock the boat in any way (maybe that's why the on again/off again twitter postings re iron ore prices);
I can also see why they might not want to say anything about the Kore and Sundance situations.

Which rather leaves us shareholders in the dark.

Perhaps appropriately enough, I should share that my partner bought me one of those 'grow in a bag' mushroom packs for Xmas.

She may obliquely have been hinting at something....

ATB to all and a very Happy New Year

[gta5] 29/12/2020 17:30

Seems the Ministry of Mining in ROC is on a mission. "Use or Loose it" would seem to be on the cards. Another one tapped on the shoulder (this time not a revocation just yet...)



I wonder what assurances Jumelles are prepared to give?...
(and yes, I think its safe to say that we're under the magnifying glass if Kore, Sundance have already been approached. Zanaga will be very high on Nguesso's list of projects that are not paying him dividends...)

[gta5] 29/12/2020 15:50

Extrader thanks for the links! I only noticed it was very old just after sharing it!
Thanks for sharing the updated version! :)

And top tip -as Sooty reminds us of-; if you put a capital character in the link when positing it it does not filter/replace https with "hxxps"...

Happy new Year!

To a better and more prosperous 2021!

GTA.

[extrader] 29/12/2020 14:45

Hi GTA5,

The link's to an old article....?

Change of management of the mine...hxxps://www.globaltimes-sl.com/the-resumption-of-tonkolili-iron-ore-will-boost-the-economy-says-mines-minister/

Part of which seems to be mainly about coal...

And here : hxxps://thecalabashnewspaper.com/kingho-investment-to-employ-over-2000-to-revamp-iron-ore-mining/

First production / exports within 3 months, they say....

"Eat your heart out, Zanaga ! "

Happy New Year, one and all.

[gta5] 29/12/2020 14:33

You're welcome Greenelf and Extrader, sorry to sound a bit like the Grinch, but it highlights the high stakes poker that's going on. Not for the faint of heart.

GTA.

[extrader] 29/12/2020 13:56

Hi GTA5,

Thanks for these links !

(1)COIDIC gets name-checked as one way forward.....as does a J/V between Bollore and China Harbour Engineering (CHEC) , which has done repeat work together in Cameroon, Ivory Coast and (recently) East Timor.

CHEC isn't one of COIDIC's 7 x 'SOE' shareholders, maybe that's why they could chat with Yantai Port Group re the Floating Harbour project...

(2) The minutes talk of wayleave from Djena to P-N SEZ (ie redrawing 'zone area' AIUI) and of updating electoral lists and census - which would take 'at least 10 months' (;-<), but appears to conclude that April 2021 is 'incompressible' and is when Nguesso's 'mandate' ends, so anything to be done has to be done by then...

Unless I'm missing something....(wouldn't be the first time..).

ATB

[greenelf] 29/12/2020 11:47

Oh dear, that does not install confidence. Is Zioc safe?!?Will there be the traditional pre New Year update rns saying absolutely nothing at all again? Thx for link gta.

[gta5] 29/12/2020 00:59

Happy Christmas.

Some recent comments around China and SEZ strategies:



And below some minutes from the Esteemed and Illustrious gents Nguesso, Mokoki & Co:



GTA

[catchingmice] 24/12/2020 08:59

Well atlast it seems to be holding a rise for once above the 8p level instead of falling backSo just maybe this can be sustained so that we can hit double figuresTook a hit 3 months ago selling half of my stock but I've more than made up for that buying WSBN at 5.70Still hold the rest in here but I'll be taking it out hopefully around the 12-14p LevelAnyway Best wishes all holders and have a good Christmas

[extrader] 22/12/2020 09:52

Hi GTA 5,

Agree the overall, cautious tenor of your comment.

We/Sundance appear to have spent similar sums on ' development and research', the key difference IMO being 'location, location, location' : Nabeba is 70 Km from an unbuilt 510 Km rail link to an unbuilt deepwater port at best (in Cameroon).

That's the SHORT route, going cross-border. The long route , inside C-B, is about 800Km straightline, 1600 Km by maybe non-existent road. Probably more challenging than Simandou....[if that were possible].

Makes Zanaga's downhill slurry pipe look like a doddle , by comparison !

ATB

[davidlloyd] 21/12/2020 11:10

The BID / OFFER fluctuations of late seem very strange to me- large swings between sometimes negligibley sized trades....
Not reading anything in to this - but it does seem out of character, which always triggers my antenna :-)
GLAH...
DL

[extrader] 18/12/2020 09:38

Hi GTA5,

.."and Glencore would perhaps be persuaded to go quietly against Zanaga marketing rights....or perhaps the rights for Sundances old holdings in the north?.."

Maybe....but those 'rights' would be promises from self-acknowledged crooks, not worth the paper written on. Not sure the GLEN shareholders would be overly impressed !

To misquote Reggy Perrin , " Ivan didn't get where he is today by....."

Interesting times !

ATB

[gta5] 17/12/2020 22:10

Extrader,
I think that yes, the reason for pulling the license from Sundance is clear (or at least highly likely to be lack of progress/credibility). The same has been done countless times in the past by other governments exasperated by companies sitting on the resources rather than making them money/royalties/taxes/employment.

However, the parallels are also there with ZIOP; Zioc has no additional value to add, and Glencore has not got the appetite to add more investment or added risk as they're already substantially exposed to C-B debt. They even confirmed very publicly that to them Zanaga only had option value, and Glasenberg was not in favour of greenfield developments. This cannot have been popular with RoC.
Adding to this I still think the Chinese are unlikely to want to pay "full retail" for the asset and is one of the reasons they have not made an offer yet despite the current record ore prices.

I partially agree with you on the Chinese wanting to keep up appearances of legality or legitimacy, but at the same time I think "the Nguesso shortcut" is almost guaranteed. I don't think Nguesso&Co will honour their IPO participation anymore, and will want a fresh slice of the pie. As for ZIOC protesting I can imagine that ZIOC's $500K won't get them very far, and Glencore would perhaps be persuaded to go quietly against Zanaga marketing rights....or perhaps the rights for Sundances old holdings in the north?

Perhaps I'm being overly cynical but, as we both seem to agree, its not a pretty sight looking at Sundance's situation. I consider this one of the few times that Glencore owning the majority could actually be shielding us from worse dangers, at least a little...in theory...maybe?

GTA.

[extrader] 17/12/2020 20:41

Hi GTA5

Thanks for this snippet !

Some more re Sundance, speculation elsewhere that C-B pulled the license because it was clear they couldn’t progress a deal ( no money)

hxxps://themarketherald.com.au/sundance-resources-asxsdl-set-to-delist-amid-african-disputes-2020-12-16/

ATB

[gta5] 17/12/2020 18:21

Update: got a swift response from Andrew.
In summary (paraphrased); they are aware of steps taken last week by RoC against others but that ZIOC have not had any such indications and that they are fully compliant with their licensing conditions and are staying proactive in Congo to advance the Zanaga project.

Either way, sounds like Glen needs to make a move sooner rather than later and real progress to be made, especially as this is lost oportunity for all involved at current Iron Ore prices.

Onwards and upwards...

[extrader] 17/12/2020 18:09

Hi GTA 5,

I/m not sure that the Chinese would go down the 'Nguesso shortcut' route :

- first, appearances count (doubly, 'face' matters to the Chinese and form over substance , a SHOW of legality, matters to Communists everywhere), and you can bet that ZIOP would raise merry hell, very publicly...and GLEN could privately remind certain folk that it has the paperwork for those murky loans-for-oil facilities...

- second, Nguesso is already pretty discredited anyway on the international stage and likely near the end of his (mis)rule : I can't see the Chinese unnecessarily risking a major investment that wouldn't survive 'regime change', however it came about.

IMO

ATB

[gta5] 17/12/2020 17:02

Thanks Extrader (and Sooty for fixing the link)

Sobering and saddening reading for sure.
One way of looking at it: Will china pay x Billions to Glen+Zioc or a few hundred Million to Nguesso for Zanaga? The chinese risk remains more or less the same despite the bad precedence of enabling corruption. Slight advantage to paying Nguesso's pockets as he's got the ultimate power to assign ownership, Glen+Zioc add inconvenience and little value and can't play as dirty/corrupt as China can. They also can't protect their interests with trade embargoes and power the way China can. If in doubt follow Sundance from here on....My bet is that they're up the proverbial creek..

I've asked Andrew T for a comment on the standing of Zanagas license, hopefully we'll get a reassuring RNS soon but I would not be entirely surprised if we get silence and a lot of speculation and tree shakes... For what it's worth I see it as confirmation of the risky position ZIOP is in rather than new or added risk necessarily. If Nguesso had any sense he'd be quick to get the SEZ going and some high profile "wins" to regain credibility. He aint got much right now.....

[emptyend] 17/12/2020 16:48

Weird close. Two price monitoring extensions preceded by a fall.....and then a big rise on nearly nil volume. Feels like someone is interested in generating some volume?

[emptyend] 17/12/2020 16:42

Arguably it is better to see things happening - even if on the face of it they make things look difficult - than have nothing happening at all. Rather as with the interminable UK/EU arguments over fish (which allegedly are economically irrelevant to both sides), the fact that things are worth arguing over suggests some real value being perceived and some intention to develop or do deals with the assets concerned.It is all politics - and there are plenty of minerals businesses that have put host government noses out of joint for one thing or another. What happens next may give some useful clues.....

[extrader] 17/12/2020 16:00

Hi all,

The Sundance RNS also recveals that it has a separate issue with Cameroon :

hxxps://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/PDF/60583c1f-0175-49d5-92b6-f06f601e67f2/MarketUpdateCongoandCameroon


..."A separate notice of dispute has also been served on the Republic of Cameroon in respect of its failure to implement the exploitation permit that was deemed to have been granted to Cam Iron in 2009....."

acknowledging that its finances aren't in great shape...

"Litigation Funding
Sundance is currently seeking proposalsfrom international litigation funders familiar with funding actions of the kind Sundance and its subsidiaries will need to initiate against Congo and Cameroon if the disputes cannot be amicably resolved by negotiation."

ATB

[gta5] 17/12/2020 15:58

Extrader, agreed on all points. The real issue I have with this news is that it confirms a cleptocracy and Nguesso's preparedness to lose even more international credibility. (beyon his jets getting confiscated, their dodgy real estate purchases Oil corruption and and cronyism...)

In short, IMF will not be impressed, Glencore rattled and the Chinese encouraged that they don't need to pay Glen/Zioc Billions for a piece of paper, but rather give Nguesso&Co a slice of the pie in return for full operational control. (if they get played the same way as a small AIM/ASX company they'll just switch off the lights until Nguesso stops playing games.)
This goes back to why it's important to be a large Superpower (or at least a large/mid size company!) in cases like these as my guess is that no one cares if Sundance is screwed over or not....

Anyway, lets see.

8p is hardly an ambitious SP, and we all knew the snakes we deal with in RoC....

GL, GTA.

[extrader] 17/12/2020 15:31

Hi GTA5,

Agree the optics aren't pretty ! but :

- Sundance's Congo asset is waaay up-country and was always dependent on Cameroon's good graces for a route to market. African leaders love to stitch each other up, so I never rated this (ditto re our 'cunning plans' re Gabon/Franceville); and

- our partnership with GLEN may offer some protection in view of their clout and other interests in C-B, including the outstanding oil-related loan...

And the Chinese don't seem to be exactly covering themselves with glory as regards actually getting projects underway, either...

We're seeing the 'high risk/high reward ' dynamic in real time !

ATB

[gta5] 17/12/2020 14:20

Not pretty, and perhaps the reason that the Chinese walked away from Sundance/Mbalam (and/or SEZ, or perhaps they even engineered the situation betting on keeping it all with RoC's blessing?) either way, not inspiring for Zanaga and the real risk that we've been fearing with Nguesso&Co. It highlights the insane risk in Africa and one of the main reasons no multi-BN $$$ investment has happened to date in what should have been a "No brainer" Zioc's current market cap seems very fair with the below in mind...

_______________________________________________________________________________

METALS 16 Dec 2020 | 20:33 UTC London
Sundance set to start proceedings against Congo iron ore license withdrawal

HIGHLIGHTS
Sundance says provisions of Mining Convention breached

Mine targeted 40 million mt/year of high-grade output


London — ASX-listed mine developer Sundance Resources Limited, which is developing a major iron ore mine project in the Central African Republic of Congo, said Dec. 16 it may commence international arbitration proceedings following the apparent revocation of its license by the country's government to proceed with development of the project.

Sundance said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange that it became aware Dec. 7 that the Republic of Congo, also called Congo-Brazzaville, had issued a decree Nov. 30 purporting to withdraw the mining permit from Sundance's subsidiary Congo Iron.
As a result of the withdrawal of the mining permit, Sundance considers that Congo has breached numerous provisions of the Mining Convention dated July 24, 2014 between Congo and Congo Iron, and indicated that the withdrawal is tantamount to an expropriation of the assets of Congo Iron.

Sundance said it has already invested close to AUS$400 million ($302.6 million) in the project which targets an eventual production of 40 million mt/year of high-grade iron ore.

S&P Global Platts was unable Dec.16 to solicit a response on the subject from the country's Mines Ministry via an official website.

Other regional confiscations
The incident follows the apparent recent confiscation by the Sierra Leone government of iron ore mining licenses for mine properties held in the west African nation by global trader Gerald Group and China's Shandong Iron & Steel.

"Congo Iron is now commencing the formal dispute resolution process provided for in the Convention. In the event the dispute resolution process does not achieve a settlement within 60 days, Congo Iron intends to commence international arbitration proceedings pursuant to Article 33 of the Convention," Sundance said in the ASX statement.

These proceedings will be conducted under the rules of arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) before a tribunal of three arbitrators seated in London, the company said. Congo Iron will seek the payment by Congo of fair compensation for the expropriation of the mining permit and damages for other breaches of the Convention and the applicable law, it said.

_______________________________________________________________________________

(Source:

GTA