Zanaga Iron Ore Share Discussion Threads

[greenelf] 11/8/2020 14:23

This could still fail to break out upwards out of the overall downtrend. If it does, back to 4p. This is becoming less and less tempting, even as a quick trade bounce, imo. Is there a enough hope left to break out?? Like the Elf film, not enough xmas spirit lol.

[gta5] 10/8/2020 17:52

After all I think this is at the core of our issues:



(the levels of corruption and bankrupcy of ROC is at the level that no one dares put up a couple of BN investment no matter how good the possible returns might look. Remember that they are bleeding SNPC dry. How would they do that with Zanaga? (I'd suggest that Nguesso&Co should stick to the 10% that corresponds to ROC of the project + taxes, but reality is likely much higher and the reason that Glencore and the Chinese prefer to stay out. Not like they can get their money back after building the railways or pipelines and Nguesso might be changing the rules on a whim...)

Still a decent 100-1 bet IMHO, but need to have a lot of patience, and as others have pointed out there are plenty of much less risky bargains out there today. I'm trying to justify to myself why I'm not selling a portion now to buy in at 2-3p later....(or changing to a less risky position with an airline or cruise company....!)

Then again, all that's needed is for Glasenberg to concede that its plain stupid not to have Iron Ore in the portfolio and that its time to revisit Zanaga. By Glencore dusting off the old core samples it would send our share price to orbit in a heartbeat, so what do I know?

Ho hum...


Another interesting read from Simandou:


GTA.

[extrader] 08/8/2020 17:37

Hi PUGUGLY,

Fair enough ! In the interest of balance, your ref to London Mining reminds me that Colin Harris (former NED at ZIOC, Project Director in the early days), was also at London Mining at around that time.
So he appears to be good at finding 'whales' , but others haven't yet reeled them in...

ATB

[pugugly] 08/8/2020 15:20

Hi Extrader - Misinterpretation - not deliberate - I used to follow IO and the potential to invest in London Mining back in 2011-2013 when IO was in the region of $130 per ton with a spike to $168 in 2011 and many analists were tipping - Thus I am a historic sceptic -


As current IO prices are about $105 per ton I wonder how good a buy was RTZ's extension purchase?

Your figures are useful as a different view and with the benefit of hindsight in the next year or so we might know the answer -

Still watching as at a market cap of £17m there might be some value here subject to cost of capital and sustaining capital BUT so far as I am aware no real indication of 3rd party interest.

RE corruption - This can follow the concession and rebound on both the buyer and seller if it had taken place in the past.

.

[extrader] 08/8/2020 13:47

Hi PUGUGLY,

I think there may be a (deliberate ?) 'misunderstanding' : I was referring to your first option - 'cheap sale', WITHOUT all the development costs....

Steinmetz received $ 1.5 BN from Vale for 51% of a concession ie NO follow-on costs...

Why ? Because at the time, despite "comments by José Carlos Martins, the former head of Vale’s iron business, that there was “something wrong” with the Simandou deal, Vale decided to go ahead because Simandou was the “only open door in Africa” to maintain Vale’s market share.

See

So we've got 2 x major mining co's (FMGL and VALE) with documented strategic interest in expanding in Africa, both left frustrated by the Simandou outcomes.

Oh, and your comment re possible corruption in acquiring licenses ? I think that , in your haste to focus on the negative, you're overlooking that we'd be the seller, not the buyer.

And on the licensing front generally, it appears (hat tip to Jiving on lse) that RTZ paid $ 700M in 2011 for an EXTENSION to its Simandou license..

See :
"The world’s no. 1 iron ore miner was able to keep the two southern blocks, but only after paying $700 million to the government in 2011. That guaranteed Rio tenure for the lifetime of the Simandou mine.

We often search for some kind of valuation parameters for Zanaga, interesting RTZ paid an additional $700m to keep their rights to 2 out of 4 parts of the Simandou project."

ATB

[pugugly] 08/8/2020 11:59

Extrader:= Thanks - Useful reminder to all of the levels of possible development costs - PLUS of course in Africa the need to check (very difficult) whether the history of any concession contains "brown paper envelopes" facilitation incentives!!

[extrader] 08/8/2020 10:59

Hi PUGUGLY,

Not directly comparable, but see

Steinmetz got AIUI $ 1.5BN from VALE for 51% of a concession for a remote, up-country project , we've seen since that this is a fraction of the subsequent likely development costs.

HTH and ATB

[extrader] 06/8/2020 15:27

Hi all,

From GLEN's H1 report, Ivan's sum-up :

.."Over the longer term, our diversified commodity portfolio, positions us well to play a key role in the next upward economic cycle, benefiting in particular from the commodities required for the transition to a low-carbon economy..."

Let's hope they include low-pollution, high quality iron ore.

ATB

[extrader] 04/8/2020 08:10

Hi ee,

S'pedia has

Wednesday 5th August, 2020
Half Year 2020 Glencore PLC Earnings Release
Thursday 6th August, 2020
Half Year 2020 Glencore PLC Earnings Call

Perhaps some kind person would ask for comment on the Weekend FT article, extract

.." Glencore, the miner and commodity trader, has emerged as a big winner from the oil market turmoil sparked by the price war and corona virus pandemic.....a very strong first half performance, the company said it now expected the unit to deliver earnings before interest at the top of a $2.2bn to $3.2bn guidance range in 2020. .... Glencore's marketing and trading arm generated about 40% of group EBIT last year. .....This year, it will ... compensate for the fact that Glencore does not produce iron ore and has missed out on the soaring prices that benefited some rivals such as Rio Tinto...

The Saudi/Russia price war, coronavirus price plunge and May's negatively priced oil contracts are not likely to be repeated. If Glencore want solid, reliable earnings they are going to have to look at the performance of all their units and assets...

So, Mr Glasenberg, when are you going to exercise GLEN's Zanaga 'option' ?

One can but hope !

ATB

[emptyend] 03/8/2020 21:58

Glencore results Friday I think. Some clues then perhaps?

[sooty snipes] 03/8/2020 10:30

That's okay. You won't be getting one. "I know more about iron ore prices than you can possibly imagine" Ha ha ha ha ha ha. What a clown!

[qazwsxedc69] 03/8/2020 09:36

No need for an apology.

[qazwsxedc69] 03/8/2020 09:33

D'oh. You've embarrassed yourself there. I know that. I'm agreeing. I know more about Iron Ore prices than you can possibly imagine.

I am referring to Greek Hovel - (that should be pretty obvious to any one with half a brain)

Before shooting the messenger it pays to do your homework.

[sooty snipes] 03/8/2020 09:19

I'm afraid to say on this occasion you're the buffoon. He is quite correct to say iron ore is nowhere near record levels. In 2008 ore reached 195 a tonne and again in 2011 it went to 187 per tonne. Today it stands at 109 per tonne. Before shooting the messenger it pays to do your homework.

[qazwsxedc69] 03/8/2020 08:26

He's a buffoon who set up multiple aliases to troll the ECR board. Just filter.

[the deacon] 03/8/2020 08:08

Iron ore prices aren't anywhere near record levels

[greekhovel] 03/8/2020 06:27

Iron Ore prices near record with anticipated supply shortages, brings the Zanaga project back into play.

The shares are exceptionally illiquid and volatile, ideal for traders, looks a decent entry point.

Buy before the herd arrives.

[extrader] 03/8/2020 00:14

Hi george23666

“So a possible 'potential' development?”

Yes,if all the stars align.....the stars include : what GLEN wants, what ZIOC wants, what China wants, what C-B wants, what the IMF wants, what Australia wants, what the US/FrenchRussians and any others with ‘vested interests’ want....etc, etc....

All the FT article has done is highlight the (to me) compelling logic of Ivan doing something/ anything to derive benefit from a ‘wasting asset ‘.

What he does / can do .... and whether he’ll be allowed by others to do it...is another matter. But shame on him, on the face of it, if he doesn’t TRY.

ATB

And, coming back to your Point, this would , hopefully, be RNS able.....

[george23666] 02/8/2020 19:51

So a possible 'potential' development?

[extrader] 02/8/2020 19:00

Hi all,

From the FT Weekend.

Glencore, the miner and commodity trader, has emerged as a big winner from the oil market turmoil sparked by the price war and corona virus pandemic.....a very strong first half performance, the company said it now expected the unit to deliver earnings before interest at the top of a $2.2bn to $3.2bn guidance range in 2020. .... Glencore's marketing and trading arm generated about 40% of group EBIT last year. .....This year, it will also compensate for the fact that Glencore does not produce iron ore and has missed out on the soaring prices that benefited some rivals such as Rio Tinto.

The Saudi/Russia price war, coronavirus price plunge and May's negatively priced oil contracts are not likely to be repeated. If Glencore want solid, reliable earnings they are going to have to look at the performance of ALL their units and assets...

So even the journo's at the FT - if they 'join the dots' - are telling Ivan that it makes sense to do something with Zanaga....

ATB

[sooty snipes] 29/7/2020 16:58

George if you're a fit and healthy person under the age of 30 you could dip your toes in. Also if you have a life expectancy of 150 years of age.

[extrader] 29/7/2020 15:16

'Any developments' is pretty all-encompassing !
Anything 'material'/discloseable is in the last couple of RNS's.

HTH