|Looks to drift to a 12 month low before the year ends.|
|NAV currently 5.3p per share, so that's the upper limit I'd imagine but if had to make a guess I'd say 4p to 4.5p if it's done relatively quickly, less if it drags on.|
|So a cash return to shareholders draws closer. What's the current consensus on how much that might be per share? If it were less than the current price, wouldn't the share be heading south now?|
|hugepants....most times in my experience the amount returned in these situations is a lot less than expected. Everyone gets their bit and after all the fees there is often nothing much left. But who knows?|
|barnetpeter3 Feb '17 - 11:13 - 577 of 580 0 1
I would guess a return of 2p maximum. A lot of staff to pay off plus directors and noone is going to care about protecting shareholder cash. Paying staff off where a company is not in administration is not as cheap as some on here think. There are minimum redundancy levels but these are not going to be enforced.....they have lots of cash to pay much higher levels.
Are you kidding? On my reading of todays news I don't even think the company is losing money yet but will start to next month once payforit kicks in in Ireland.
The company must have made approx E500K in the 4 months up to 1st November. That would make net cash over E6M (over 5p per share).
Regarding redundancy costs well I've been working in IT-related companies for many years and I've always been on a one month notice period wherever I've worked. And there are only 11 employees remaining. As previously posted there is no CEO and the remaining directors are not taking much so they won't cost much, if anything, to let go. The lease liability is about E200K but the offices are in central Dublin so I'd be hopefull they can reassign for a small loss.
So I'm kind of expecting to get about 4.5p per share back. Maybe more maybe less. They are talking about "monitising" the listing for example. There are also a lot of intangibles (E6.4M) on the balance sheet. Best to assume they are not worth anything but who knows.|
|Haike chemicals looking interesting.|
|Yes, this company is no buy on liquidation grounds and obviously no buy on trading grounds.|
|I would guess a return of 2p maximum. A lot of staff to pay off plus directors and noone is going to care about protecting shareholder cash. Paying staff off where a company is not in administration is not as cheap as some on here think. There are minimum redundancy levels but these are not going to be enforced.....they have lots of cash to pay much higher levels.|
|My last post sadly underestimated the ability of this management to burn through the company cash pile. By the time they are finished the current 3.75p share price will look fairly optimistic as a measure of a return to shareholders.VGLTA|
|EezyMunny - good points.
"The Group leases its premises under a non cancellable lease agreement which expires in September 2018." Looks like there is a €237k commitment left on their leased office space. It could potentially be sold or sub-letted?
There's no mention of what it would cost to cancel employment contracts, but given that there is no CEO in place (rest of the directors collected just over €100k between them in 2015), I don't imagine those costs would be greater than €100k.|
|A shocking update to say the least! However, if I was a gambling man, I would have to say that the shareholder return at this point is likely to be better than the current share price of 3.47p.
Remember, management provided the following guidance for 2016 H2
"We anticipate an improvement in operating performance during H2 2016 thanks to H1 advertising spend and continuing strong UK sales performance. "
It wasn't until November 25th that Payforit kicked in, so you would expect H2 results to have been cash flow positive all but for the last month of trading. You would be thinking that the cash position has been boosted by about £1M at that point. Assuming a complete collapse of the business, the company does have about £2.5M of administrative costs a year.
If we assume the cash balance was £5.8M as of end November 2016, we should at worst case be looking at cash burn of about £200k a month. If the wind up process can be concluded in the next 6 months, then I would be very confident shareholders will get a greater return than the current share price.|
|At 30 Jun net current assets were c. E5.6m (£4.8m) = c. 4.8p/share I think
Need to adjust that for profits/losses since then (why can't they tell you current situation???!) and wind-up costs. 22 staff to lay off, office leases etc.
Outcome largely unpredictable IMO! They could easily guide a range of likely outcomes. Pathetic.|
|classic value trap.|
|So how much cash will actually be left to return after all the winding down costs?|
|Looks lime Zamano is not worth 90p for each £1.00p of cash fairly soon. Some feat of management!|
|Zamano (ZMNO:ID, or ZMNO:LN) (3.3%):
Share Price: EUR 0.055
Market Cap: EUR 5.5 Million
Unfortunately, with special situation/activist stocks, things can sometimes get (much) worse before they finally get better…as with Zamano, it seems. Since the UK/Payforit trading update – where management basically threw its hands up in the air, aghast – investors have tagged the business itself as (less than) worthless. Which is understandable, but a wee bit overboard… While smaller investors may have been puzzled by the apparent laissez-faire approach here of large stake-holders- who were maybe focused more on an eventual exit, rather than the day-to-day vagaries of the share price – I think that’s clearly no longer the case. While it should have accompanied the original trading update, in the end (albeit, two months later) management was forced to deliver an actual restructuring plan.
Annualised cost savings of almost €0.4 million were announced, with more to come, to ‘allow the Company to continue to operate profitably into the future…whilst also protecting the Company’s existing cash position & shareholder value’. Crucially, all M&A discussion/activity has ceased, with the focus ‘on maximising shareholder value whilst continuing to explore options for further value creation’. Presuming both, Zamano now trades on a 0.75 Price/Cash multiple (vs. €7.3 million net cash as of end-Nov), and a substantial portion of this cash should now be available (logically, with acquisitions off the table) for a return of capital.
But let’s not write off the ex-cash value here – after all, ZMNO’s survived plenty of industry changes & setbacks for nigh on 20 years now, plus it also managed to generate €2.5-3.0 million EBITDA pa for the last 4 years. Which suggests it can rebuild a profitable business again…except that would take time, plus a full management bench. A bird in the hand may now be more compelling – in fact, hopes for a sale could explain the radio silence re a new CEO. [Even if the company’s intangible assets were sold off piece-meal, and/or it was touted as a potential listed vehicle for a business wishing to IPO, I suspect significant value could still be realised in terms of the current market cap]. All options to ‘explore’;…but to actually realise value here, investors need some timely decisions & implementation from the board. And while it’s a small stake, Farringdon Capital must be frustrated with a significant mark-down already on its new 9.0% stake (purchased from Pageant Holdings, and with little chance to exit unless they find another deep-value block buyer at an even worse price) – we can hope they provide fresh support/activism here.
For this & other top picks, check/Google my latest 'Top Trumps For 2017...' post on the Wexboy investment blog.|
|How much power do the directors hold given they only hold about 400,000 shares in total?
Here's the updated major shareholders. Looks reasonably well diversified with no controlling shareholder.
Pageant Holdings Limited 19,771,982 19.88%
Aurum Nominees Limited 13,624,664 13.70%
Ulster Bank Diageo Venture Fund 13,888,889 13.97%
Grillon Holdings Limited 9,085,928 9.14%
Farringdon Capital 9,000,000 9.05%
Pershing Nominees Limited 4,709,516 4.74%
Davycrest Nominees 4,271,163 4.29%
Magizano Investments Limited 3,549,999 3.57%
Pageant Holdings are an Irish-based investment company.
Grillon are the company of a guy called Gerard Dowling who is the founder of Red Circle.|
|Needs to be at 4.5p before I think it worth a punt. The costs of getting rid of our illustrious management team need to be factored in to access value.VGLTA|
|The Zamano management team's performance should really be used by any of the top business schools as a reference for how to run a business into the ground. The level of disregard to shareholders interests is astounding. Pageant Holdings must be fuming over this farce.VGLTA|
|As it turns out the management have proved unreliable and no friend of the ZMO shareholders.Let's hope 17 marks the end and the Company is sold or liquidated.|
|Picked up a few more at a smidgeon over 5p last week. With approx 5p net cash that implies no value to the actual business which the company believes will be profitable and cash generative going forwards. Final results are historically released early March so maybe some clarity on the future direction then.|
|A bit of comment from Mr Wexboy on Zamano which is worth a read -
...The company remains rudderless (still nothing regarding a CEO) – the only good news is that acquisitions are finally off the table, plus the remaining management team’s finally been forced to come up with & implement a restructuring plan (which should have been at least outlined alongside the Payforit warning, not two months later) to ensure the company remains profitable/cash-generative & to protect its EUR 7.3 million cash pile.
But presuming that, the last trade price values Zamano at a near-30% discount to cash, plus I believe the business still has significant value (at least in relation to its current market cap) in terms of intangible assets and/or the potential stabilisation in revenue/possible profits going forward (don’t forget the company’s a survivor for almost 20 years now). But investors obviously aren’t prepared to give management any benefit of the doubt here, and to date the company’s cash pile has been inaccessible (& therefore ‘worthless’ in many respects) – realistically, a decent return from here is only going to be delivered via a sale or liquidation of the company, with the cash pile returned to deserving shareholders (now the only logical step, with acquisitions killed off & presuming the restructuring ensures profitability)...|
|Exactly HugePants, they should be paying a dividend or other form of cash return to shareholders which was mooted before by posters. This idea was put on hold when the company proposed acquisition/s, but is now worthy of discussion. Are they not a very attractive takeover target themselves given the large cash pile and low share price? They turned down an offer of circa 14p per share for the company not long ago!|
|Since they are now not going to go ahead with an acquisition what will they do with the cash? I wonder if they will return it to shareholders. What do they need it for now?
The market cap is £5.5M and net cash will be about £5M at end of 2016 giving an enterprise value of only £0.5M. And the final results should show an after-tax profit of about £0.9M! That's assigning 4 months of profits to H2 pro-rata with H1 profits.
I guess the question is what is the level of ongoing profitability? Last update suggests they are cutting about E0.4M in costs and state this will ensure the business remains profitable. They also suggest they can increase UK revenues over time. But is the cash pile now worth more than the actual business?|