Xp Power Share Discussion Threads

[robow] 12/1/2013 09:19

it was also written up positively in The Times yesterday though I don't have the link

[cockneyrebel] 11/1/2013 17:44

Yep, that reaction speaks volumes imo fozzie :-)

CR

[fozzie] 11/1/2013 16:06

A pleasant reaction from Mr Market for once. Luke warm results and no fall away of the sp, mind that divi is a goody. Lucky enough to still hold 3000 of these little gems. Bought 5000 at £2.43 originally, sold 1000 at around £14 and 1000 at £12 so that coupled with the divi and this is a bottom drawer hold for ever sort of stock. Great few days on the market.

[cockneyrebel] 11/1/2013 15:19

Back in today, seen the bottom here imo, nice bowl on the chart, China picking up and a 5% yield - nice :-)

All imo,dyor etc.

CR

[owenski] 10/1/2013 16:25

Yes apologies, I assumed that extrapolation incorrectly, now that I've bothered to look back through the payments. :-)

[rocheberie] 10/1/2013 12:40

All being well, next year's dividend is more likely to be around 53p (11+12+13+17), which would be an increase of about 8%

[rocheberie] 10/1/2013 12:34

The statement only said that the 4th quarter dividend is likely to be no lower than 16p making a minimum for this year of 49p

[cockerhoop] 10/1/2013 10:44

It hasn't worked out like that in the past. The 4th quarter dividend was 15p in 2011 which obviously didn't transpire into at least 60p for 2012.

Although the dividends are paid quarterly the 4th or Final payment appears to be larger so I don't think its safe to assume it can as a base for the following year.

I think the dividend for 2013 is likely to be 53-54p which is still not to be sneezed at.

[owenski] 10/1/2013 09:41

Hi, 16p x 4 = 64p

"The dividend for the fourth quarter of 2012 will be announced with the 2012
final results on 25 February 2013 but is not expected to be less than 16 pence
per share, representing a minimum total dividend of 49 pence per share for
2012, an increase of 9% over the total dividend of 45 pence per share paid for
2011."

Expected to be not less that 16p, so could be even more per quarter.

[cockerhoop] 10/1/2013 09:38

I agree XPP is a very good company managing tough conditions pretty well. When end markets eventually pick up I believe it will outperform its peers.

Owenski - interested you suggest div for 2013 >64p, how did you establish that? Thats a big jump on 49p for 2012.

[owenski] 10/1/2013 08:56

If this hit £8 I will be buying more for the div alone, this is a good company and is having some shrinkage currently in its end markets but this wont be forever.

As the Vietnam plant is approaching breakeven I'm guessing that in part is the reason for the debt reduction, and as said indicates great CF. Which underpins divs.

Divs for this year then look likely to be a minimum of 64p, equates to 6.4% at current share price Gives very good reason to hold whilst end markets improve.

[jamielein] 10/1/2013 08:48

Mixed feelings about this TS -
positives: dividend, lower decline, possible turnaround
negatives: profit dropping, uncertain outlook

Overall I wouldn't be buying, but there's just not enough in there to sell either. This could drift down to £9 or up to £11 as I think they're fairly valued for now.

[philo124] 10/1/2013 08:25

Sold my modest holding.

[fozzie] 10/1/2013 07:41

I have held for many years now and the divi has covered my original purchase twice over. A pretty Luke warm statement today, almost too honest and painted a picture of a very tough marketplace. I hold for the divi which is terrific but I think we may see £8 again in the next few weeks. As has been said, very few reasons to buy, that divi though should underpin the share price and prevent it falling too far.

[thorpematt] 10/1/2013 07:23

Yes some positive in the decrease in decline - which is of course the first thing to occur in trend change.

Also positive is the margin improvement and end of exceptionals for the factory. Debt reduction ondicates positive cashflow (very important share price wise).

Really the negative is the marketplace, which for me I'm looking at for recovery for 2013.

I'd agree to some extent as a hold but then i think the reason to buy is the low valuation of the business given is (likely) cash geneartion numbers. Great potential in recovering market. You have to buy before the event and I think this is great value here.

See what the market thinks...

[philo124] 10/1/2013 07:19

Agreed, but i think it will fall in thin market. TTG statement was better imo.

[owenski] 10/1/2013 07:16

Year ahead could be flat then, but with the caveat of more customer wins the downside is negligible. Net debt down by circa 80% is rather impressive. Looking at another div increase at next quarter of 4p (expected 16p) underpins income attractiveness of this stock.

Cant see any reasons to sell, no great reasons to buy either just yet, but would think this is fair value up to £11. imo

[thorpematt] 05/1/2013 11:31

I think much depends upon the TS next week.

But from a charting perspective yes I would concur to an extent.

The caveat would be that TBH quite a lot of charts look healthy on a macro level these past few days.

For me you can make a case for a turn either way, but the most interesting level for me is £10. We have seen it bounce OFF £10 and resistance AT £10 in the past and therefore a drop to 800 is on the cards if the TS outlook is poor, whilst a swift rise to 1300p is likely if good.

Much depends on outlook IMO. My fundamental analysis is upbeat but I itend to take a closer look before the TS.

[aitchsee] 05/1/2013 07:22

Anyone detect an upturn? Seems to be having a go at a downward trend line that dates back two years.

[johnroger] 03/1/2013 16:21

Trading statement due January 10th

[daz] 09/10/2012 08:22

Unfortunately a subdued trading update this morning. Perhaps the reaction is a little unwarranted but next years forecasts are likely to be trimmed as well, so there are probably better opportunities elsewhere but the yield should provide support.

[bones] 25/9/2012 17:37

Technical point of view:
This area between 950p and 1000p appears to be technically important. A look at the longer term chart in the header shows this range to be a place where the price has bounced a number of times in the last 12 months (albeit it was breached down to 800p once). However the recent line of lower highs on the descent from 1250p suggests a bearish move down could be due with buyers apparently exhausted sooner with every bounce. A bit like a bouncing ball running out of energy it could roll down the next dip in the road it finds. I would not be surprised to see 800p area retested soon, as there is little recent chart evidence that investors want to buy this one in any volume right now.

[flagon] 14/9/2012 17:49

Agree Daz.

Earlier this week an institution topped up. Lot's of buying today with only a few sells. Shares moving in to strong hands IMHO.

Flagon

[daz] 14/9/2012 15:39

A 6000 trade and a number of automated trades this afternoon, suggest interest is building, I think we'll see a spike soon.

[daz] 14/9/2012 11:14

Three 7,000 trades have gone through this morning, which look like buys, so someone's interested. It does suggest that the overhang is clearing and perhaps now gone.