Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[km85] 04/2/2020 07:16

So they got badly affected and cancel dividends.

[tvh123] 03/2/2020 16:28

“As a Denmark-based company we have always had the Danish market close to our heart and the performance of the sites has been satisfying”, he said.

“However, we believe the future for the company lies outside the Danish borders and we are looking forward to increase our attention on other larger and potentially more profitable markets in and outside of the European Union.”

Not convinced it was a "huge" missed opportunity by any stretch - why were Traffic Lab so keen to sell those assets? What multiple were those assets acquired at? "Satisfying" hardly inspires a whole load of confidence. Lots of unknowns!

In other news, XLM's approach to investor relations continues to leave much to be desired - what is the point of keeping a PR firm on retainer? At least update the market on the number of sites that have been impacted across the portfolio and the geographies!

[oneillshaun] 03/2/2020 09:09

Another huge opportunity missed by XL Media, with the Danish assets XL owns and the purchase of the Traffic Lab they would owned a huge percentage of the Danish market at a very low cost......


hxxps://affiliateinsider.com/featured/traffic-lab-hands-over-danish-affiliate-assets-to-game-lounge/

[durthur] 27/1/2020 14:22

Yump - the personal finance business is high quality and worth more than they paid (better traffic now, better monetisation of the traffic).

I wouldn't imagine they can find a buyer for the gambling sites, but if you close them all down they're still worth something in a liquidation (as you have cash coming in from customers you acquired in prior years).

[yump] 27/1/2020 12:41

If any of you have ever tried to sell an affiliate site that has revenue, you’ll know that unless you have a saleable established brand with longstanding repeat visitors, you’ll be offered a pittance for it, because of the risk of Search rankings tanking.

In theory if you have enough diversification, you’re protected to some extent, which is why imo xlm moved into finance, although they presented that as a positive, not a risk reduction move.

But the overall problem I think is purely the lack of space that has resulted from increasing mobile use. There is no way around that.

It must be years ago now that talk in affiliate circles generally was of increasing ppc costs, more competition for rankings, decreasing viability.

Imo the writing was on the wall ages ago, even without any crackdowns on gambling.

[km85] 27/1/2020 12:40

I think you both talking on the price level. He means if your initial price is now then you make 2-3 times based on fact. And if you initial strike price is above 100p then you you have to start visit/revisit your church and pray.

[oneillshaun] 27/1/2020 12:31

Durthur - Please give me a little more of your thought process on the deranking not effecting valuation of the company so far it has smashed 20m GBP plus of our market CAP, i am curious to understand your thinking.

[km85] 27/1/2020 09:40

For me I always prefer them to pay no dividends and uses those amounts to acquires assets. If/when the stock hits 20 I will tap dancing to work and buy aggressively.

[km85] 27/1/2020 09:06

Good and quality personal finance websites have always high valuations, 15-30 times earning. Due to no regulation risk, high certainty and big traffic volume. Most U.K. and USA companies within this field, public or private have always have high valuation for those above reasons. Shaun is also right about the casino quality websites and the recurring sales of those assets. But the regulation risk and taxes, have caused those assets to be less valued in the long run. Xlm should do focus on both verticals and add extra verticals to its portfolio. The less % of sales come from gambling the higher value for the the overall business.

[scubadiverr] 27/1/2020 08:55

The gambling sites looked of very poor quality and you yourself questioned why xlm never used new sign-ups as a KPI - due to this I don't think there can be as much downside as you anticipate. I think if they build new better sites, or acquire higher quality assets for the gambling verticals to cover Asia and the US they will be in a far stronger position than they ever have been.

[middlesboroughfc] 27/1/2020 08:32

They trumped ur appointment and then SACKED you when they worked out you were useless.

isnt it signing on day today ?

[oneillshaun] 27/1/2020 08:21

Scubadiverr- after working for XL media I am of the other opinion i had way more faith in the gambling sites the winning thing with gambling if the life time revenue of the player this is huge.

In all honestly i dont feel the most recent drop was overdone i think when the update comes it will not be pretty and i really think we will see 20p, i also see the dividend being cancelled and being used to buy sites in Europe to regain our hold in the key markets.

[scubadiverr] 26/1/2020 17:24

Yes, far more than I wish when I saw the latest drop! I think the drop was overdone as never thought much to the gambling sites anyway. I think if they invest in quality sites like the financial side they should have good growth prospects.

[oneillshaun] 25/1/2020 14:51

Yes I do, do you?

[scubadiverr] 24/1/2020 17:42

Do you hold xlm oneneil?

[oneillshaun] 24/1/2020 14:03

yump - I agree with and the market hates XLM because the company consistently delivers bad news, this is what the 5th profit warning not a single bit of positive news in years, a buy back and tender offer that was a huge waste of money selling Webpals Mobile at a crazy loss.

The market will not give this any love until our new CEO show he can actually deliver.....

[yump] 24/1/2020 12:58

I think averaging down only works on larger businesses, where they are intact but you judge they are just going through a bad time. Usually the chart history shows some sort of cyclical pattern.

Here, its just a long share price decline. You could probably trade it successfully from a bargain level, but imo the business is in decline. There is not going to be some miraculous recovery and if its just a moderate recovery, there will be a big crowd of people selling at various losses as it rises that will just put the brakes on every rise.

Sometimes there are just too many question marks.

[km85] 24/1/2020 10:08

Mallcolmmm, then Invest in Turkish bonds, lol, they offer you 15% return. Or fold your money In half, you could double them. Not being rude but you are confusing yourself. A week ago you said Xlm is good investment for long term, few days ago you said Xlm is too risky investment for you. Two days ago you said well Xlm is good investment with stop order or lose, yesterday you want yearly high return.

[malcolmmm] 23/1/2020 23:41

We are all dead in the long term, some of us want a good yearly return, adveraging down is a mugs game imo.

[km85] 23/1/2020 13:47

Only if you ARE long time investor. People panic, markets panic in short term. Over the long term stocks will follow companies performance. Go back to 2014 to H1 2019 reports.
The company stocks moved from 40p to 212p in two years and half when it was able to grow sales and profit. From
2014-2015 till 2018, sales doubled, income went up 3 times, and retained earnings went 3 times as wel. Domains value went from 40m to 100m dollar . Then from 2017 till today stock dropped by 82% due to decline in sales, profits and stupid capital allocations. If you read all reports and RNSs, You would see they spent 35m dollar on USA finance sites, 50 to 60m spent on sport betting sites in U.K, which bingo assets, Finish websites, and others. Do not forget those acquisitions were financed mostly by cash, which owned from previous or older shareholders and old issues capital. Of course change in regulations and more competition have affected the industry but those sites can still bring new sales and recurring sales BUT not at the same level as they used to. At the same token they have new markets to get in the long run. The new ceo is tying to take the company to wider affiliates space. The odds in my favour even if the ceo and XLM failed to deliver their recent strategies. I am waiting the new RNS to even add much more than my recent purchases.

[durthur] 23/1/2020 12:53

At current share price they have an EV of around £40m. The financial services sites alone are worth 1.5-2.0x that, and XLM have been rumoured to have been approached with bids. The gambling business becomes a free option at this level, even thought you should be able to recover £60-80m if you simply liquidated them.

Tell me how I would lose money over 3-5 years if I invest today.