Wynnstay Share Discussion Threads

[elsa7878] 23/6/2020 20:40

Pugugly. I doubt it. It is a shop for farmers and pet owners not campers and hikers. Clothing and footwear were generic not targeted to individual sports / past times from what I could see. (Some horsey stuff and a bit of shooting gear aside).

[studentinvestor13] 23/6/2020 20:37

Thats not really a shop vs non shop split. if you use companies house the grain trading is most of profits. Im not sure the shops are really that profitable.

[elsa7878] 23/6/2020 20:32

5.24 m v 2.95 m or around 64%

Agricultural
Year ended 31 October Agriculture Merchanting Other Total
2019 GBP000 GBP000 GBP000 GBP000
------------ -------------- -------- --------

Revenue from external
customers 358,687 131,843 72 490,602
------------ -------------- -------- --------
Segment result
Group operating profit
before non-recurring
items 2,417 5,240 21 7,678
Share of results of
joint ventures and associates
before tax 534 4 (75) 463
2,951 5,244 (54) 8,141
------------ -------------- -------- --------

[studentinvestor13] 23/6/2020 20:23

Nice details elsa. The only thing I disagree with is that the stores are most of profits, I was under the belief that Grainlink and other trading activities contributed most of the profitability on very large revenue numbers. I had checked companies house on this

[pugugly] 23/6/2020 20:15

elsa7878 - Now that is what I call Market Research - far more useful than the cr*p often put out by city slickers -

Wonder if they might pick up any business from the problems at Go Outdoors

JD Sports' boss sold £13m of shares as its GoOutdoors subsidiary teetered on the brink of collapse

[elsa7878] 23/6/2020 19:57

Went to 2 shops today. They both said the website was taken down as the orders were coming in so fast they couldn't cope. Still out delivering all day everyday. Both said sales were well up on last year and they were turning orders away.
So expecting a pretty downbeat H1 review as farmers have had a terrible year: wet winter, diary farmers pouring milk for hotels etc down the drain and now no rain.
The upside should be the outperformance from the shops which after all are the majority of profits (not sales). This will benefit H2.
Inventory deliberately reduced as carrying too much stock previously and they were shifting stock between stores to fulfil orders. Apparently this was not the case before so even if another local store had 25 gates and another 0, it would require a new purchase from a supplier to fulfil the order. One store was ex-Countrywide and staff had been there before WYN took over and said the range was much better now. Also new verticals eg garden sheds, gazebos etc. All made and fulfilled by third parties.
Didn't post before end of day close as didn't want to induce buying as still a big seller out there.
Also I already have enough shares though which I had bought at around this level.
Hope this might help...

[buywell3] 23/6/2020 07:58

Only one winner and one loser here

[pireric] 22/6/2020 13:36

110k trade from Friday so if I'm tracking this broadly right, reckon BS are down to 115k as a remaining holding today or 21% of their last RNSed stake. Sets up for the stock to potentially be able to move based on the actual merits of the interims this week

Eric

[elsa7878] 22/6/2020 11:35

Full year forecast still for an eps of 32.5. So on that basis the forward PE is 7.

[elsa7878] 22/6/2020 10:37

Judging by comments from themselves and competitors I don't imagine it will be pretty, though I think their stores have probably done well. Oil price drop should have helped farmer budgets to mitigate some of the reduction in farmgate prices. 2 years of high £5 million capex - should be reducing from now on. This will aid cashflow. Probably some weak cashflow due to the reduction of inventories in the last full year that will require restocking, unless this was deliberate policy to run a leaner retail business. Still have net current assets - liabilities of nearly the market cap, plus freehold properties of £10 million. Agree at £2 it would be a raging buy. We have to eat and after this pandemic I assume security of food supplies and a greater drive towards self sufficiency etc will become an even more important issue and therefore will require greater farmer support. Government has committed to maintaining welfare standards so can't see us being force fed chlorinated chicken...

NWF:
28/1: Feeds. Gained market share with volume growth against a backdrop of lower market volumes. Profit has been maintained despite lower commodity prices.
29/4: In Feeds demand has been in line with expectations and we continue to deliver greater volumes of ruminant feed than the prior year. A recent significant increase in feed commodity prices, particularly proteins, is impacting the business in the short term.

CARR:
7/1:
Agriculture markets have remained challenging. In the UK, lower cattle prices, downward pressure on milk prices and rising input costs have contributed to pressure on farm incomes which, combined with continuing Brexit uncertainty, has resulted in reduced levels of farmer confidence. In addition, following the unseasonably mild and dry weather seen over the prior year supporting large forage stocks on farms, the division has seen reduced spending on feed and animal supplements. This has resulted in reduced sales volumes in both UK Agriculture and UK Supplements to the end of the period despite an initial good start to the financial year.
12/3:
Conditions have remained challenging which, combined with the continued mild weather, has meant that volumes and margins for feed and supplements are significantly behind management's expectations.
Results to end of Feb 2020: The sustained mild winter and ongoing market pressures have resulted in total compound feed volumes declining by 10% against the previous year. This reduction is in line with the decline seen nationally, which has placed margins under pressure.

WYN:
22/1: Outlook:
The trading environment for the agricultural supplies sector remains challenging. Farmgate prices are generally lower than a year ago, and the detail of what Brexit means for the agricultural industry remains uncertain - although the Government has made clear its support for UK farmers and outlined proposals that emphasise environmental management and efficiency. We therefore anticipate that farmers will remain circumspect in their spending and investment plans over 2020. Against this background, the high level of forage stocks on farms has reduced feed demand, and the wet weather conditions over recent months have decreased the acreage of winter cereals that farmers have been able to plant.

24/3: AGM statement:
As expected, trading in the first four months of the new financial year was subdued, but has been broadly in line with management expectations. This market softness reflected generally lower farmgate prices, severe wet weather that limited sowing activities, and continued farmer cautiousness.

[cockerhoop] 22/6/2020 08:32

Eezy,

Presumably as the story hasn't changed since your initial purchases in the 260-200 range you're a buyer again at these levels?

[studentinvestor13] 22/6/2020 07:45

The new corporate website last week looked the same as the old one. I wonder if they've seen higher store demand being one of the few places allowed open during the lockdown and given people's propensity to do gardening during the nice weather. And they have pet food etcetera. Pets at home were saying that and supermarkets obviously saw an initial bump

[zangdook] 22/6/2020 07:21

New website doesn't work for me. Nor does the old one. Only the online shop opens, the one which says they're too busy to do any work.

[pugugly] 21/6/2020 17:54

pieric - Fair and considered comment but only if held in tax wrapper - Given problems facing UK agriculture I still would consider the risk to the downside - In other words I dsagree with with the Stockopedia post on Mon, Jun 15, 2020 by Jack Brumby -
However it takes 2 to make a market and at this level I will be keeping powder dry

Also very much depends when you invested - Anytime after 2014 investors would be heavily down - unless like EezyMunny bought during the March-April crash.

EezyMunny - Congratulations on your trading success - I suspect you took the right decision to bail out - (bid at time of posting 245p) so will just have to revisit in the future to see what has happened in the meantime -

[pireric] 21/6/2020 17:36

Not to pick sides but for what it's worth, if I use the Bank of England calculator, 190p from the public offering in 2019 real terms is 294p so if I take 247p on the bid price and add 135p of dividends, you'd be at 382p. Therefore you would net still be up 90p odd and if you held this in either a SIPP or ISA then no tax on dividend income so not sure I concur with your maths Pugugly.

A slight return above inflation pretty much describes what this stock is but I think the valuation here at this moment leaves the risk distinctly to the upside on a medium term view. In an uncertain macro environment, I would ordinarily think stocks like Wynnstay get a safety premium (need to see if that plays out in the coming months Brown Shipley aside). I was reading their recent autumn seeds brochure and it makes you appreciate that this is a solidly run business even if incredibly dull.

Eric

[studentinvestor13] 21/6/2020 15:25

Wrong once again if you use the 190p IPO price and this can go in an ISA. But who cares who is owning this for decades at a time.

Hard and fast not replying any further as you're chatting garbage and can't even do simple maths on reading what I wrote (16 not 15). Complain wrongly I can't do investing 101 yet fails at 5 year old maths. Filtered.

[pugugly] 21/6/2020 15:19

studentInvesor whether you are going from 15 or 16 years I am afraid you are still wrong - end of story - Whenever you invested (that is if you did) you are still underwater if adjusted for tax and inflation -(unless you bought during parts of March or April this year or during the 2008/9 crash) So did you invest and when?

[studentinvestor13] 21/6/2020 15:15

Unbelievable. 2004 was 16 years ago like I said (which is the IPO point)

hxxps://online-calculator.org/how-many-years-ago-was-2004#:~:text=How%20many%20years%20ago%20was%202004%3F%20-%202004%20was,16%20years%20ago%20from%20today.

Enough is enough. This is getting petty and I have contributed to that. GL holders who have done proper research and know what they own. Not GL to the aliens here who as buywell suggests have never heard of COVID and who must live under a rock

Come back in 12 months and see where we are.