Wyg Share Discussion Threads

[norbert colon] 09/3/2018 20:10

Yes some big volume there. Seems plenty of stock on the offer recently. Market cap below £28m now. The valuation is ridiculously low even taking into account the patch trading and debt.UK market backdrop doesn't help with investor sentiment however with debt reducing and revenues from their international business of circa £20m you can almost discount the whole of the UK business. I may be proved wrong but won't be surprised if investors look back at these prices and wish they had put the bucket out to fill it up.

[value viper] 09/3/2018 16:27

huge prints there at 38p - insti out or in ?
seller cleared ? who knows.....................

[norbert colon] 07/3/2018 22:59

Recap of half year report:"We continue to anticipate a stronger second half, consistent with our historical seasonal trading pattern and our guidance in November. We remain confident that the underlying business is robust and that, supported by a strong order book, we are taking the correct steps to return to a growth trajectory. Importantly, revenue is up on the comparative period and we are seeing major projects in both our principal business streams start to mobilise, albeit some months later than originally expected".I understand there will be a trading update before the end of March and hopefully this will highlight some green shoots from the hard work of recent months.The UK is a challenging market for Consultants at present, however, WYG's mixed and somewhat niche service offering plus strong order book should offer some hope of a recovery in their fortunes.

[value viper] 07/3/2018 19:58

More for me today ; we seem to have a seller of some form : past 2 days at end of day 25,000 shares go at 37p.I contacted co today re next update potential date : told next fixed yet but likely towards end of month.

[norbert colon] 27/2/2018 19:09

Topvest - what you have to believe then is that in the future the Group will generate free cash flow. I certainly do as there is nothing unique about WYG compared to their peer group to otherwise prevent them.Previous management have a lot to answer for in my opinion and given time investors should see much improved financial performance although it won't happen overnight.

[topvest] 27/2/2018 18:14

Still watching this, but can’t quite get over the fact that they have generated zero free cash flow in the last 6 years. Truly awful and that’s before the wheels fell off.

[castleford tiger] 27/2/2018 17:58

funny YOU SHOULD ASK.
I bought 2 more lots today a 10 and a 7

Hard to buy big lumps gave 40 and a touch under.

Still wanting about another 75 at this entry price

Tiger

[value viper] 27/2/2018 16:18

you still locked and loaded tiger ?

[norbert colon] 27/2/2018 13:06

Yes agreed I was thinking the same. The current valuation is without any doubt in my mind cheap and with a moderate time frame I expect to see 2-3 x the current valuation.

[value viper] 27/2/2018 12:16

I'm thinking a new thread maybe after next update ; hoping things will be on the mend

[norbert colon] 26/2/2018 22:38

Happy for it to be quiet to be honest. Trading update due next month which I am sure investors will be keen to see:https://www.wyg.com/investors/financial-calendar

[value viper] 26/2/2018 21:19

Certainly a quiet holding period this.

[value viper] 02/2/2018 10:52

i have added again (through NEX by looks of things)

[value viper] 01/2/2018 16:09

some very wise people nibbling today i see !! (fingers crossed)

[norbert colon] 29/1/2018 19:39

Hi Value Viper. Yes I can see 10k @42p on NEX?. I expect it to be a bit quiet here for a while (happy with that) / business just needs to stabilise itself. I retain faith in the new mgt to turn things around and the current valuation remains very attractive in my opinion.

[value viper] 29/1/2018 19:14

I had some today at 42 ; my deal must have gone thru on NEX as hasnt printed.

[castleford tiger] 24/12/2017 08:17

I guess it depends IF they can deal. Often they are prevented.

Its always good to see a buy or two.
Options maybe coming though

tiger

[value viper] 23/12/2017 21:05

i think a poor show no director buying since results (and certainly before Xmas)
whilst price has recovered a tad, still doesn't instil much confidence that they feel a recovery is underway any time soon ? what do u think tiger ?
not disputing recovery potential remains...........
i havent checked whether directors have options though ?!
i hope they are not about to be awarded some down here - just check your cheque books out

[castleford tiger] 12/12/2017 19:05

my last and most expensive to date in there.

That's it I am fully in now.
Tiger

[value viper] 12/12/2017 15:27

some quite chunky buys indeed

[mrphil] 12/12/2017 15:18

Interesting share price movement today, does somebody somewhere know something?

[value viper] 05/12/2017 20:49

Excellent stuff Norbert : thanks for taking the time.

[norbert colon] 05/12/2017 20:38

Interesting post from Walbrook82 and always good as to hear both sides of the investment case so I thoroughly encourage it.

I would just like to throw my response in to the various points raised.

1 - Risk of Contract delays. This is not specific to WYG and is a risk applicable to all Consulting firms (and for that matter most businesses). Agreed that currently there are, however, various market headwinds particularly Brexit and that the current Macro climate is not exactly a rosy one.

2 - I have a particular loathing for adjusted profits and made this point to various CFO's including the one at Sweett Group where Doug McCormick was previously CEO for a short time.

3 - Its a people business! Of course the majority of costs are staff.

4 - Same response as 2) above. Transparency is key and I hope going forward this is addressed.

5 - Same response as 2) above. Will come onto cash later....

6 - Interesting point. All I can say is that from my recent discussions with new mgt there is an acknowledgment that previous reported numbers had been somewhat flattered so you may have a point. I am satisfied that the pedigree of the new CEO will ensure such shenanigans cease. Investors can only engage with mgt going forward and press for greater transparency.

7 - 100% Agreed - historically WYG has been a bit of a basket case and under previous management I avoided it all together. We have a new CEO with a solid track record and its all about the future now.

8 - New mgt were very clear with me that the cash profile of the business historically is appalling. Again, its all about the future here under new mgt. Another reason I had steered clear before.

9 - Noted / agreed and covered above.

10 - Agreed. Mr Hamer (previous CEO) liked buying companies. I understand that a number of these businesses were poorly integrated and were working autonomously rather than as part of a global business. My clear impression having watched the company for a number of years is that Hamer / McTighe were on a mission to buy and build as quickly as possible and feather their own nests. Staff / business segments have been neglected and it couldn't have come sooner to get new management in including a new NED as reported today.

11 - I invested initially at 104p and have added all the way down to current prices. The plan was always to keep adding but at higher prices not lower prices. I should be happy with lower prices but even I have been taken back by the recent profit warnings. Clearly all investors will be spitting feathers (me included), however, WYG are not a fly-by-night blue sky company with a dubious business model. They have a good reputation in the market, work in some niche geographies / sectors that distinguish themselves from other Consultants and are a UK Top 3 consultant in some areas such as Planning.

Its going to be a slow burn turning things around, however, looking further ahead its not unreasonable to see the valuation above GBP 80-90m given turnover of GBP 150m +

I dislike token Director buying to prop up flagging valuations but management need to dig deep into their pockets at current prices and buy some stock to make it clear to the market that long term prospects are as sound as they make out.

N+1 Singer's note this morning has 2019 revenue at GBP 163.5m, PBT at GBP 4.4m and EPS at 5.4p. The divi is also maintained (1.8p) and net debt is down to GBP 6.9m. Price to Sales is less than 0.2 which is exceedingly cheap for this sector.

Lots to do over 2018 and beyond - I will be in for the long haul.

[value viper] 05/12/2017 19:31

Interesting agreed. Who is / are Walbrock exactly ? Odd to have such a detailed (negative) note so quickly on WYG ..... what's the motivation behind that report ? Is it a paid for research outfit ....? The co has accepted change is needed I would say with a new CEO for starters.Not saying all is rosy but have to say price is down big time already.Had 3 profit warnings already and I would now like the CEO to buy more shares to average a poorly timed buy earlier in the year.

[topvest] 05/12/2017 19:12

Walbrock82 - thanks for your post. I agree with most of your points. I wanted to buy this, as a recovery stock. I'm not going to at least for now. Basically, they don't make any money if you look over a 5 year timeframe. Negligible dividends paid...for good reason as cash flow is very poor. Why? Well the adjusted profits are misleading. Too many debits going into the separately disclosed area. Think the business needs managing better. Think Turkey is a big risk if that doesn't come in quickly. Probably priced about right at the moment. There is a risk of one more profit warning and a fundraise in my view so will hold off until the annual results.