Work Service Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 30/9/2014 17:54

I see your point but we have similar but slightly different views....

NBI, I see as a hold or even a buy !

The co. has plenty of money to seed new investments if it wants to.

By holding NBI from 300p to 580p ...Western has received a massive amount of paper profit....it needs imo to keep to that winning receipe.

Westerns history with new investments is bad. NBI is the main winner.

sure holding so much NBI is a risk.....but what else can one buy.....very little or nothing is worth buying at present imo....
NBI margin is a risk, but I see no reason at present for it to fall......everything they have done has been 8 to 10 out of 10. Good chance they can continue that imo.

NBI is not MWB
...I sold lots of LFI at over 50p...I managed to know it was time to sell...my guesses are not always right....but reasonable odds imo

[smithie6] 30/9/2014 17:40

Russman
do you have any suggestions then to prevent repeats of past mistakes by the bod of Western ?

including
- agreeing to Hartim losing 3M pnds via an adventure ?!
- investing in Doctors direct at a price that was plainly nuts !
and then allowing the dirs. to vapourise the cash raised in around 18 months
causing the co. to be sold to reduce debts...while Western had the chair position and E.Beale on the board to monitor the financial aspects
- dubious actions of DAvid Courtney Marshall at the following cos
- MWB (allowing the dirs. to subcontract out the running of the HQ to...themselves ! at a very expensive price
- FIF (acq. of Ligthbody at an insanely high price....good for the selling chairman of FIF but TERRIBLE for new investing FIF shareholders...co. almost went bust due to the new debt load)
- Doctors Direct
- sitting as a dir. at Creston ....and allowing the MD excessive feeding from the shareholders assets

etc
-----

there is a real risk that a new policy will be put in place....to allow Marshall junior to operate as David Marshall did in the past.....being a passenger at investee companies....producing poor results....but them getting nice return in the process

and noting that Mr Marshall jnr has imo no track record of any success at operating companies.....and actually sat on Hartim bod which has recently lost 3M and almost gone bust in the process.
3M is a large amont for Hartim and for Western.

personally I think that some action is needed to make sure that can not happen again...

I note that the shareholders own the co. and NOT Mr Marshall snr nor Mr Marshall jnr.

alternatively we can just remain asleep and let them do what , and take, what they want

[topvest] 30/9/2014 17:12

I'm not a seller of NBI but do recommend top slicing. It's fair value at about £6 in my view, until we get a view on next years EPS. WSE need to learn on their past mistakes and top slice their successful investments. They have top sliced twice and should do a third time in my view.

Running the winners is the way forward, but top slicing on the way up to seed new investments needs to be done to make the strategy here work.

[smithie6] 30/9/2014 16:13

Any support for the proposed advisory board ?

[smithie6] 30/9/2014 16:08

an advisory board has been formed to assist in the operation of New Western

formed by interested parties who are large shareholders (3-4 large holders)
and interested smaller holders who can demonstrate they are experienced skilled active investors

the advisory board will operate to
- advice the company on any aspect
- review and agree "in advance" any new strategic investment, large investment, large divestment ....because the bod has had a poor record over the last 25 years the advisory board hopes to provide more brains, experience, knowledge and also more cold separated opinion before jumping in to any new strategic investment which the co. might want to do but which are perhaps liked due to a factor of excitement/interest or good presentation skills from dirs. of new investee companies.....
and especially to avoid over-paying
- to ensure that the co. does not investment so that any Marshall will receive directors fees, as a selection criteria.
- whether an existing listed co. would be a better investment


The shareholder advisory board will establish a set of investing rules for any new strategic investment, the following is proposed as a basis for modification
- good margin
- barriers to entry
- global possibilities
- a track record of financial numbers
- where the investment deciders know the sector quite well over the last 10-20 years, ideally having worked in the sector (this rules out many sectors)

[smithie6] 30/9/2014 15:16

Topvest
Northbridge
...Ive ground thru the results and tried to crunch some numbers...

and my view is that NBI is still a good story....and that one should run your winners and cut your losers....

the EPS jump for this fin. yr is now fully gteed imo as a result of the recent acquisition
and a large part of the EPS increase for next year

The full acquisition cost could be paid by just 1 year of cashflow !
And then 1 year later they could make another similar acquisition !....and again increase the EPS !!

and also imo NBI ticks all the boxes for investing...(experienced bod, good margin, good assets, acceptable gearing, not reliant on 1 product or 1 customer, track record of growth, no excessive pay or options, owned by institutions, bod owns a considerable stake, .......
trying to find other shares that tick all the boxes is very difficult)

just because something becomes fairly priced is no reason to sell ....

(if Western could sell some NBI and spread the money over say 5 identical cos. with identical bods then it would be lower risk and make sense but that option does not exist imo)

further comments on NBI blog page on fulltimeinvestors.com

[topvest] 29/9/2014 20:26

It would be helpful if they actually commented on the NAV per share in the Chairman's Statement. They always leave it to the investor to calculate which isn't very market friendly. It's 102p, so 2013/14 was undoubtedly a very good year for WSE. Lets hope they can continue with this better performance. Out of their portfolio of investments, 3 of the 4 are probably undervalued being Hartim, Creston and Swallowfield in that order of under-valuation. Northbridge is their best investment to date but is probably fairly valued as things stand. They should be taking another small top slice of £500k or so at the £6 mark to give them a 2014/15 realised profit in my view.

[topvest] 29/9/2014 19:45

I liked this...

"We are optimistic about the prospects for Hartim and our quoted core holdings."

First time they have majored on Hartim I believe. IPO on the way medium term?

Yes, I agree the 21% cost increase is not good. I wonder what the professional advisors have actually been doing with their increased activity? AIM float to match the investment strategy change?

[smithie6] 29/9/2014 19:32

21% increase in costs !!

----

40% of Gen. Portf. was in USA stocks.

they achieved 1% growth in its NAV !!
maybe we should buy them some dice for Xmas !

=====

update
Gen. portfolio increased by 9% over the year I think....
....I guess can accept that...
but recently the cos. management of the Gen. Portf. has not been good.

[topvest] 29/9/2014 18:34

Yes but they do better using this model than investing in a general portfolio. I'm happy to support this. They need to find attractive candidates a bit more rapidly though. Must be 4/5 years since Hartim. I agree that the best period has passed. Wonder if they have a target up their sleeve? It's a real shame that they exited Treatt a few years back. That would have been a terrific strategic investment!

[russman] 29/9/2014 18:22

They just have terrible timing.
They should have been trawling Pre-IPO a couple of years ago.
This looks like a good way to generate some extra fees (for the Marshall Empire).

[topvest] 29/9/2014 07:55

Results out. 2p dividend.18.3p NAV. Hartim looks to have recovered well. New strategy thought whereby it looks like the general portfolio is going to be liquidated and invested in more pre-IPO and IPO stocks. Tends to indicate that they will do more Hartim's and Northbridge type investments. I think that is sensible really. No indication yet on what the new investments will be. Will study more closely later.

[coolen] 28/9/2014 22:03

Shareholder pressure to return to AIM might prove more worthwhile.

[russman] 28/9/2014 20:54

Final Accounts should be out this week. Let's see...............

[topvest] 26/9/2014 16:55

Results next week I expect. The accounts are compliant with accounting standards so I don't think there is much mileage in your suggestion. Be interesting to see how Hartim is progressing.

[smithie6] 26/9/2014 16:08

...if we have some people reading and posting on this Western thread (rare)

is there any interest in each person sending an e-mail to City Group (who run Western) with a copy to the ISDX regulator...and to the FCA

asking for the forthcoming accounts to comply with the law

and to report to shareholders

especially for costs and how the costs are generated

and not just give a total value (around 270k pnds)

the cost is perhaps not too high...
but
I think that cos. should report to shareholders what they do with shareholder money....

[smithie6] 23/9/2014 18:02

Mathew
btw
a normal trade size for Western at the quoted prices is 5000 shares....

but if there have been recent trades that have left the MM with almost no shares....then he might limit the amount to 2500 shares...

-----
difficult to explain some of the different aspects of buying/selling illiquid stocks...

(sadly with brokers like TD that dont really know what they are doing.....it is always difficult for the client...)

if you ever want some WSE shares....
you can always post on here....you might find a larger holder willing to sell you a few....and do 2 limit orders...to minimize the MM cut (1 buy and 1 sell)

but you can put in limit orders ...and leave them a few days to see if they get filled....
(the MM might not sell you what he holds on day 1 .....but if the mkt falls then he might !....or if he needs the cash to hold another share....)

most NBI buys have gone thru at mid price in previous months....

[russman] 18/9/2014 20:04

I suspect they are using a full service broker not a retail order taker. Always look at the downside. Imagine what it is like trying to get out of a large losing position on ISDX.

[coolen] 17/9/2014 15:16

well done !

[mathewawood] 17/9/2014 09:37

Just sent this to isdx-regulation:

To whom it may concern,

On Thursday 11th Sept (about midday) I asked to purchase shares in Western Selection (WSE). The current spread was 57p-62p. My broker was TDInvesting and I was dealing with them on the phone. I initially asked for "how much available at the bid price of 62p". She then asked how much I was looking for in total. Which was 18500 @ 62p. She came back with the quote of 75p. Bit of a shock, but since stock is very illiquid, I asked her to see what she can do for me with a limit of 64p. This is what she came up with after putting on hold for 5mins.

500 shares @ 62p
2500 @ 68p
5000 @ 70p
10000 @ 73p
18500 (the amount I was looking for) @ 75p

I laughed and then hung-up.

When I saw that someone on Friday got 5500 @ 61p it made me sick. Perhaps you can explain to me why I was treated in this way.

Regards,

Mathew Wood.

[mathewawood] 17/9/2014 09:19

Yes I agree. I really should make a complaint. However, with a 9am-9pm job and 3 kids I haven't got the time or energy.

The broker I use is TDInvesting and the lady that dealt with me put me on hold for over 5mins to come up with the quotes. So I presume she was in touch with the MM.

I tell you what. I will send a quick copy and paste e-mail to icap just to shame them. I'm sure nothing will come of it though.