Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 04/8/2017 18:03

It's quite obvious what he's looking to achieve.
Trying to post people into a growth box or value box is too black/white.

This is a great fund for the patient with an interest in wanting to take part in growing disruptors.

[prewar] 04/8/2017 15:43

I hope you didn't apply that logic to Amazon all the way up.

The value of a company should be based upon the discounted value of it's post-tax and post-debt servicing cashflows.

If you only value companies based on value of dividends you're missing out on a whole host of opportunities......

[topvest] 04/8/2017 15:40

Think PURP and Amazon are both seriously overvalued. The valuation of a company should be based on the discounted value of its dividends. Both are not likely to pay one anytime soon. They are therefore speculative investments in my book and you better not be holding them when the music stops. If you invest in these sort of companies you are an out and out growth investor where price doesn't matter. Neil Woodford is a mixture of value and growth. He seems to have lost his way in my view.

[dr biotech] 04/8/2017 12:55

I think PURP has a lot to prove. But didn't Woodford pay about £30m for a stake that is now valued near £400m? He has made some duff calls and I expect that with this type of trust.

[mad foetus] 04/8/2017 12:24

What does "10 years of growth to achieve its existing valuation mean"? Where are these rules written down?I don't much like PURP, but it is a disruptive company, and all that matters is its share price and the willingness of the market to believe that it will be able to generate profits in future.Or to ask the question the other way around, at what time since it was launched would you have bought shares in Amazon? Or would you have stood by, saying it was overvalued, while it 100 bagged?The only rule in investing is to make money.

[topvest] 04/8/2017 10:21

We are at or near the top of a bull market. Not the time to be holding these in my view, but will be a good opportunity when the bull turns to a bear. Think Woodford is good but I struggle with this trust and his approach. Is he a value investor or a growth investor? I don't think he can make his mind-up and has strayed out of his original niche. Purplebricks, as an example, has about 10 years of growth to achieve its existing valuation.

[toffeeman] 04/8/2017 09:59

Crikey - Utilitywise was a terrible call.

[jonwig] 04/8/2017 07:11

Half Year report:

[mazarin] 26/7/2017 08:48

Would the following change in listing account for recent price action? It being the case, I'm surprised it had not previously been referred to, for it appears that as of 22/06/17 WPCT was included in FTSE250 listing. Once promoted in recent FTSE changes, it's then available to wider Institutional interest and therefore may account for added market interest :-

[mazarin] 21/7/2017 09:53

Here's a link to some Technical indicators (stock evaluation tools) for those who like numbers, confirming recent positive moves in price action :

Edit: I note that both Prothena (PRTA) and Purplebricks (PURP) today made strong gains (at +1% & +5%) respectively)

[spin doctor] 20/7/2017 19:06

Prothena - the largest holding by some margin-has broken out of its medium term range. It's been heavily shorted; presumably now unwinding.

[mazarin] 20/7/2017 11:28

Thanks, just trying to make some sense of recent price action

[jonwig] 20/7/2017 09:58

mazarin - how the NAV is arrived at is here, From post #1013:

There are strict rules for valuing unquoted companies:



Valuation guidelines, p11.

I don't see the point of spending money on a daily NAV when so much of the portfolio is unquoted.

As for how the share price is determined, it's quite simply supply and demand with trades going through market makers*. I suspect there will soon be selling by frustrated holders who bought in the 2015 gold rush and want rid. If I actually knew what moved share prices, I'd be rather richer than I am.

*EDIT: it's actually traded on SETS too, though not many participants it seems.

[mazarin] 20/7/2017 09:35

WPCT has been doing quite well since picking up in May, after several years of decline and lethargy. Unlike ordinary quoted Companies, I'm aware WPCT is essentially a 'closed' Fund that is fully subscribed and without cash in reserve, comprising of many quoted and unquoted worldwide companies, but admit I don't fully know how the 'Market' determines its intraday quoted 'sp'. I see NAV valuations issued the following day via RNS and would be grateful for insight from someone who more fully understands exactly how the value of WPCT 'sp' achieved. I'm assuming its traded by the Market through a defined number of brokers and currently appears to be in demand, hence the increased upwards momentum of late. The Market Cap of all constituent non-quoted companies is only known after their annual audits, whereas Market Cap of quoted Companies (notably PURP) due to weighting must clearly contribute to recent uplift in 'sp' values. However, I suspect current levels are possibly driven by an improvement in that indefinable quantity - 'sentiment'.

[wtacraig1] 20/7/2017 09:33

Prefer to see the share price rise supported by an eqiuvalent rise in the NAV. Danger is that this increase is froth and demand created by hype. No doubt the natural balance will reestablish itself in due course.

[sawadee3] 20/7/2017 08:53

Really gaining traction now :-)

Happy days chaps :-)

[prewar] 19/7/2017 16:47

There's also a 'high-water' mark IIRC so let's say it got above the 10% compounded level. It would then need to rise 10% compounded above this level not the level of 10% compounded.

So say after 2 years for Woodford to earn fees it needed to be £1.21 but it got to £1.25. The following two years it would need to get to £1.25*1.1 = £1.375 and 1.25*1.1^2 = £1.5125 rather than £1.331 and £1.4641 respectively.

[chinahere] 19/7/2017 15:44

Yes, of course even better.

[prewar] 19/7/2017 14:46

Think it's compounded so for two years would need to be 1.1^2 ie £1.21 but might be wrong.

[chinahere] 19/7/2017 14:40

It has jumped past the NAV now.

Doesn't the NAV per share have to get to £1.20 now before a fee is due because it's been going for 2 years (2 * 10%)?

[a0148009] 19/7/2017 14:34

SP a whisker away to a premium to NAV for a long time.

[jamesjamiebarlow] 18/7/2017 13:32

Loving this today. This is my biggest holding in my pf. Bought in at 89p. Happy days to see it where it is. Am here for the long term though. Hopefully it will grow and grow.

[toffeeman] 18/7/2017 12:44

Tempus in the Times has a positive piece

[the air marshall] 18/7/2017 12:06

Where is our terminally bewildered Liquid Kid these days? Still manically pleasuring himself in some remote field, I suppose. LOL

[the air marshall] 18/7/2017 12:05

Where is our terminally bewildered Liquid Kid these days? Still manically pleasuring himself in some remote field, I suppose. LOL