Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 14/8/2019 08:48

sk2

IF what you say where true

Then that company would not IMO be able to find an auditor

[ltcm1] 14/8/2019 08:41

All I would add is it if BUR is not listing on the main market under the Weif 'Woodford Mandate' it's an auto sell, BUR doesn't provide income nor is in the FTSE250.

[spectoacc] 14/8/2019 07:36

Isn't there a risk of them effectively being in wind-down if they really can't raise more cash? ie the retail bonds mature, the cash goes to repaying them.

But as you say - one for another thread, other than that the BUR share price still seems too high to me, particularly if the highly tainted Barnett also decides to sell down (or loses EDIN & PLI, as is mooted. More bad news for WEIF holders if so).

[jonwig] 14/8/2019 07:20

Yes, it's valid in that it concerns Woodford. And as you say, the future, not the past, is key. The danger is losing sight of that in a spasm of moral indignation!

I posted this on the FIX thread referencing the bonds;

It's possible to get some idea of the amount of risk in holding the bonds.

Total equity is $2.52bn of which $1.77bn is 'investments'. Writing these down to zero (an extreme act) leaves $750m. So that, in theory, would be the headroom protecting the $650m of bonds.

However, net commitments are $710m (spread over more than one year), so there's a potential funding gap. If they find it hard to raise new funds (debt, equity) this ought to be met by resolution of investments, which of course are not zero. But that would make them ex-growth and still leave realisations uncertain.

Worst-case nav for ords is 300p, best is 1100p on current numbers (30/06). If, that is, you want to value BUR on nav not earnings and ignore commitments.
So they don't have to raise more cash if they scale back their growth ambitions, as operating cashflow can cover current commitments which are spread over several years. But then they go ex-growth. Woodford is stuck until the air clears and the company recovers the confidence of institutions ... or doesn't.

[spectoacc] 14/8/2019 07:04

I find @sk2's post very valid! Tho the future rather than the past is perhaps more relevant re Woody. ie, will Burford now be able to raise any further cash? If not, what does that say for their growth profile and share price rating vs NAV?

[daffyjones] 13/8/2019 19:47

Allied Minds bowed to pressure from Crystal Amber and sacked their CEO Jill Smith in June - she had been awarded a 700k "performance bonus" last year despite the ALM share price dropping 90% under her watch. The change of CEO was enough to put any talk of a break up on hold for now.

CRS owns 5% of ALM which pales into insignificance compared to the over 50% owned by Woodford and Barnett.

Woody sold out of CRS on 19th July.

[spectoacc] 13/8/2019 17:10

Brilliant from Seedrs:

"We're not suspended, you just can't deal in our shares in August".

And:

"...We are not running out of cash or close to it. However, like many growth companies, we regularly raise capital in order to invest in major strategic initiatives and other growth drivers, and we are in the process of completing one such capital raise now."

Growth company? Thought Woody was into Value..


ALM - dunno - what happened to Crystal Amber's breakup attempt? Did it end with Woody flogging his CRS shares?

[buywell3] 13/8/2019 16:28

I wonder if woody has considered moving to China ?

Looking at Bale's would have been wages --- if woody managed some funds there he could clean up in a major way IMO

[liquidkid] 13/8/2019 16:20

Sunday Times sowing the Seedrs of Fake News?
"simply untrue: we are not running out of cash or close to it. in the process of completing one such capital raise now.
considering the possibility of action against them", those scuttling little dung beetle short selling misfits them.

hxxps://www.seedrs.com/learn/blog/sunday-times-setting-the-record-straight

woodfordfunds.com/funds/holdings/seedrs/
only be showing the top 10 holdings of Woodfeld's three funds, and no detailed commentary

[porsche1945] 13/8/2019 16:09

Allied Minds seems to be heading for the same value as wpct, ie zero.

[the air marshall] 13/8/2019 13:29

Here's more from McGonagall (again from Wikipedia):

"The Tay Bridge Disaster" has been widely reproduced, and recounts the events of the evening of 28 December 1879, when, during a severe gale, the Tay Rail Bridge near Dundee collapsed as a train was passing over it. It began:

Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silv'ry Tay!
Alas! I am very sorry to say
That ninety lives have been taken away
On the last Sabbath day of 1879,
Which will be remember'd for a very long time."

[solonic] 13/8/2019 13:22

More William McGonagall than anything I've seen recently.


Wikipedia: "William Topaz McGonagall was an Irish-born Scottish weaver, poet and actor. He won notoriety as an extremely bad poet who exhibited no recognition of, or concern for, his peers' opinions of his work."

[ltcm1] 13/8/2019 11:42

PFG 355.

Will Woody mandate himself to sell this COS if it falls out the FTSE250???

When is Woodford going to live clean, let his FTSE works be seen???

Or was the pivot pronouncement simply a load of Tosh???

[chucko1] 13/8/2019 10:01

Trade deficit, budget deficit - its all the same to Nobel-winning economist, Buywell. 40p, 45p, 55p - they’re all the same, too - give or take 27%. Buywell seems to struggle when things are 27%, so it’s going to get nasty when the share price falls to 29.2p.

[ltcm1] 13/8/2019 09:02

littleweed1 - Tom's building that pool so his daughter can visit with her Swedish mates, it should be obvious to you they need an area to cool off out there.

Any other claims could land you in hot water lw1!

[ltcm1] 13/8/2019 08:46

Specto I think Industrial Heat will be less cold fusion and more a bonfire of Woodford's vanities.

The only fusion going on will be of hubris and nemesis!

[buywell3] 13/8/2019 08:40

buywell is right 75% of the time

Not going to be good day today IMO and for the rest of this week , USA investors are now properly worried.

IMO the next BIGGER and SHARPER correction in the USA is very soon to gather pace


buywell thinks 20,000 is likely to get hit from here , just over a 20% drop


WPCT is now going to struggle
Hence my previous call of 45p in the face of such MACRO events has to be revised , plus the NAV looks like dropping further towards 75p within a couple of weeks V such market drops IMO to come.

40p is my call therefore


FTSE 100 could drop IMO 100 points today

Yesterday US banks got hit a lower bond rates

Plus a nasty trade deficit increase this year of 27%

This could spread across the pond now to UK banks, which are now testing 7 year lows


FTSE 100 now IMO looking at 6000 by end of november , 3 months.




HOWEVER


Should woodford depart then WPCT should IMO get a lift

Such are the vagaries within markets and from continued adverse press comment