Wincanton Share Discussion Threads

[volvo] 08/10/2020 12:59

net the seller Benn Bridge is still looking to sell, so price being held as the brokers shop them around.

Hopefully see some big volume in the coming days as a new investors take their place,

[netcurtains] 08/10/2020 12:12

Why does it cost £2.20 to buy when 2.135 ... I would have thought I should be able to buy at 2.14 or 2.15 or 2.16 or 2.17 or 2.18 or 2.19 or 2.20 or 2.21 ....

Why is the spread so huge (and its been huge now ALL MORNING)

I've tried THREE TIMES.... between 2.22 and 2.23 to buy... The spread is MADNESS...

[lefrene] 08/10/2020 11:20

netcurtains, it's always horses for courses. I found females required a lot more 'structure' in order for them to cope and be reliable. ie, a set routine doing a set task in a set location. Of the six that I did briefly employ, if they had been men I would only have taken one of them on, but being female I didn't want to risk opening the proverbial can of worms by rejecting them. I was only too glad to move them onto the big companies that wanted them for reasons of 'window dressing'.

As an example, a big Tesco site at Chepstow that I supplied had a 'tricky' driver test, for anyone working from that site. Males got one shot at it with no preamble advice, if they failed they couldn't try again for at least 6 months. The females were 'talked' through the test, and if they failed they could come back the next day for a re-test and repeat until they did pass!

There are a few, very few, competent female drivers, I do still know two, but they admit they like to do familiar work, where they know their destinations, and what time they are going to finish. They find it difficult to operate from just getting a text message and going to a yard they've never heard of, getting in a truck/trailer. they've never seen before, going to some other place they've never heard of, and then having to find a return load from other places they don't know. Innovations in communications in the last 20 years has taken a lot of stress out of things, such as google maps help enormously.

[netcurtains] 08/10/2020 10:57

Thanks lefrene for info. It was a long long time ago and I think that Beechams building no longer exists. I moved on to British Airways after that. Amazing canteen over looking the aircraft hangers. Certainly a lot of female unemployed graduates might want to consider a logistics career (including HGV) - I think the Queen has an HQV licence. You see a lot of women train divers so its time we had a lot more female lorry drivers.

[discodave45] 08/10/2020 10:43

Mr DYou're right.More positives than negatives.

[mr dexy] 08/10/2020 10:27

fwiw...

Obviously this has been a mad time.... and changes in consumer behaviour that had been happening slowly... by evolution almost... have been stuck into the change microwave and look like they will be around for the foreseeable...

In my humble, the disposal of the container business is a good indication that win are now focussing on the new normal... on what they are good at... and where they can make money... in the new landscape...

... all of which looks positive for the future.. and may possibly mean that growth as measured by pre C19 standards may not be what we should expect going forward...

.. perhaps...

The pension thing... is just that.. it's there.. and they seem to have a plan to slowly address it.. I'd rather focuss on how the new management are shaping the business going forward... that's certainly how I will judge them...

Anyway.. interesting times...


Regards to all


Me D

[discodave45] 08/10/2020 10:06

Volvo Agree this year has obviously not been normal but apart from a bumper 2016 their bottom line profits have not done a lot, in fact overall trend is a decline.Are you saying pre tax profit this FY has been forecast at £70m?....where have you seen that?, that's more than double what the company originally forecast.

[volvo] 08/10/2020 09:38

dd £32-34m profit this year is a one off.

Wincanton was badly hit in the initial lockdown.

Trading is now back to pre-covid levels and so will profits...so I am expecting pre tax profit for 2020 to 2021 to be nearer £70m plus...this is the forecast imo.

Waitrose Greenford is new turnover of £50m to £70m on its own, along with all the other new contract wins, e-fulfilment etc.

Still time will tell.

[discodave45] 08/10/2020 09:26

Morning VolvoPension cash outflow £18m, profit £30m+, by anybody's standards that's not tiny!.We won't agree but IMO that's why this is rated so low.....and always has been.Anyway, I'm still keen on the basis they have fixed this issue, hopefully the market will agree.

[netcurtains] 08/10/2020 08:03

Nice open. Oh well.... Still I always think the opening price is significant as statistically the opening price is often the most likely closing price (more or less)

[volvo] 08/10/2020 07:41

dd by the standards of some of these eye watering pension deficits that plenty of companies are carrying, yes Wincantons £100m odd is small for a company growing at the speed it is, already turning over £1.2 billion and of March this year EBITDA of £69m.

Read the detailed update re pension paybacks, it will reduce the deficit every year and be completed by 2027.

Plenty of cashflow to fund expansion, £60m in cash as of today.

[celeritas] 07/10/2020 20:56

Had my food shop delivered earlier, the guy said they are very busy, its getting hectic.

[discodave45] 07/10/2020 20:44

My only point is the deficit (£118m) is anything but tiny and it's been a brake on market rating for a long time. Hopefully though now cash outflows are fixed rather than unknown it will get re-rated.Are you saying you think profit will be £40m?.

[netcurtains] 07/10/2020 19:26

Volvo: I think discodave45's share price is to knock stocks a bit on message boards before he buys them (I guess trying to see what comes lose). I find the best approach is to ignore him. It rarely ends well for people who say he is wrong (even if say it nicely). I can see why he does what he does but its not very pleasant for those already in the stock hence I ignore all input from him - it rarely if ever helps LONGs. Sorry to have to bring you this info.

[volvo] 07/10/2020 19:16

Pension deficit....as you may know is not a hand brake in any form.

But if you want to illustrate it....its tiny

Could be paid off in cash next year the way the company stands today.

[discodave45] 07/10/2020 17:59

Thought the deficit (or perhaps payments) was £118m, that's a big chunk for a mk cap of £270m.This does look like if it gets a re-rating that there is some decent upside, otherwise it's +15%....fancy some though as also looking at CLG.

[volvo] 07/10/2020 16:26

The pension deficit is over in next the 6 years, its not ongoing, and based on 60m EBITDA, which will return after this years covid interrupted trading, there is still 40m profit (20m pa for next 6 years pension deficit).....Wincanton is really really cheap....and the market knows it. Broker target price 360p, my target price 450p and soon. Roll on results and the separated trading details.

Clipper made 16m profit.

Wincanton's total pension deficit in 105m

[netcurtains] 07/10/2020 16:06

Avg pe of FTSE small cap is 19
Avg pe of FTSE small cap sector "industrial transportation" is 19.2
Avg pe of FTSE small cap sector "industrial transportation" sub-sector "Transportation Services" is 25

Wincantons PE is 6.8

At any level you look at it you could make a great case for WINs being undervalued by about 270% to 350%

WINS have a growth story (Dark Stores & e-fulfilment ), it makes a goodish profit so it should be up there with the rest.

Clipper Market Cap £500 M PE 31 Profit £20M
Wins Market Cap £269 M PE 6.8 Profit £43M

This cant last forever.

[netcurtains] 07/10/2020 13:48

some profit taking today. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Nice bounce to 217 though. I'd be happy with a 217 or 220 finish.
With covid on the rise again e-fulfilment is even more in the WINs driving seat.

Dark stores are the future and WINs have it covered.

[discodave45] 07/10/2020 13:30

Should have added, now they have fixed payments for the pension deficit it could get re-rated!.

[discodave45] 07/10/2020 12:51

Earlier in the year they mentioned underlying pbt of at least £30m, they are now saying it will be materially ahead of market expectations - anybody know what "market expectations" were (I've seen £29m).I'm assuming it could be say £35m (which is still lower than last FY), so eps about 25p. This will never have a very high rating due to its pension deficit and annual drain on cash flows, so would say a PE of 10 is tops (unless major re-rating occurs), possible 15% upside?.

[netcurtains] 06/10/2020 17:55

lefrene: I did some IT for Beechams back in the day - off the M4 flyover by Hammersmith. They used to give you free Ribena and Roberson drinks and a bowl of fruit on your desk. I was not overly impressed by the company.