Whitbread Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 04/11/2019 12:50

Out at 4164 ;

[philanderer] 04/11/2019 12:43

Peel Hunt note:

[W]e initiate coverage on Whitbread with a Buy recommendation and 4,800p target price. We believe the current share price is missing the value locked up in: (i) the growth strategy; and (ii) the freehold assets.

Room capacity at Premier Inn will increase 22% based on the committed pipeline and could more than double. Valuation is underpinned by £5bn of freeholds.

Management will steadily recycle/return capital as appropriate. A bidder could plan to release capital more quickly. We forecast 69% EPS growth FY20-24E driven by 23% capacity growth to 101k rooms (from 77k today). Our 4,800p target price is based on the long-term growth and asset realisation potential discussed in our note.

With the hotel cycle turning there is a risk that negative forecast momentum caps the short-term share price upside.

[philanderer] 04/11/2019 10:18

Coverage initiated this morning by Peel Hunt with 'buy' and tp 4800p

[philanderer] 01/11/2019 10:07

++ JEFFERIES CUTS WHITBREAD PRICE TARGET TO 4200 (4500) PENCE - 'HOLD' ++

[essentialinvestor] 31/10/2019 14:46

Bought back a small amount, surprised it's holding north of £40.
Re-read the statement and there are numerous references to either uncertainty or
weakness, risks look to the downside (outside of a bid).

[philanderer] 30/10/2019 16:10

EI, nothing wrong with being cautious ;-)

[essentialinvestor] 30/10/2019 12:37

Hi Phil, just a guesstimate obvs!.
And Next is about £10 a share over the price I sold for a few weeks back.
Often too cautious in outlook.

[philanderer] 30/10/2019 12:35

Afternoon EI. That 3800p you mentioned is coming closer ;-)

[essentialinvestor] 30/10/2019 11:21

From under £8 a share 11 years ago to £40 plus, yeah dreadful long term underperformance, Not.

Agree on the buyback, it was badly executed.

[porsche1945] 30/10/2019 11:15

What a shocking waste of money that buy back was, companies always execute at the wrong price. Should have just returned it as cash in a special. Poor management like so many ftse 100 companies, Brittan another ex lloyds executive which says it all, from one terminally underperforming company to another. Should have dumped the hotels and kept the coffee.

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2019 17:38

Where I partly grew up, born in Wimbledon though.


Potential bid price would need to around high £50's?

Still think we may see around £38, if that does not come first.

[philanderer] 24/10/2019 17:28

Whitbread targets Irish growth with Cork hotel




Market report:

Whitbread was in the red even as Bernstein upped its stance on shares of the Premier Inn owner to 'market perform' from 'underperform' as it hailed the company's increased flexibility.

The bank said Whitbread's half-year results earlier this week showed that "flexibility is not dead".

"Unit growth is set to slow, exists will accelerate and they are looking to innovation to deliver growth," it said. "Talk of optimising the existing portfolio and perfecting the property base is music to our ears."

[philanderer] 22/10/2019 13:36

Investors Chronicle:

Whitbread (WTB) reported an 8.1 per cent decline in profit to £172m during the first half of its financial year, with cash generated from operations down from £455m last year to £275m. Chief executive Alison Brittain called the performance “resilient” despite challenging market conditions in the UK, with a like-for-like decline in accommodation sales of 3.6 per cent. Encouragingly, expansion plans in Germany are so far on target. Buy.

[essentialinvestor] 22/10/2019 11:43

Phil, appreciated, thanks. Had a very small amount.

[philanderer] 22/10/2019 11:42

Morning EI.

Was looking at it yesterday. My brother swears by the company. He's been with them since the M&G Recovery Fund was going gangbusters. I think they're well out of the Pru set up with their exposure to China/Hong Kong.

MNG a pretty safe bet I'd have thought.

[essentialinvestor] 22/10/2019 10:54

Phil, if you are about any thoughts on the demerged M&G?(MNG) Thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 22/10/2019 10:47

Had a quick read through and I'm struggling to get excited,
it's a common problem apparently over the age of 50 ).


No shocks in that report at least.

[philanderer] 22/10/2019 09:40

As expected. Premier Plus :-)

[philanderer] 20/10/2019 23:53

Interims tuesday.

[essentialinvestor] 16/10/2019 10:34

Appreciate the broker comment, thanks Phil.

Certainly better value than the £49 plus on the £2 Billion share buy back!.

Probably stay out now until results day. Any resolution to the Brexit negotiation
is supportive medium term.

[philanderer] 16/10/2019 00:02

UBS note:

Whitbread shares offer 'attractive risk/reward' says UBS

Analysts believe Whitbread has an opportunity to create “material value” in Germany, a country with similar or possibly even better characteristics as the UK

Whitbread plc (LON:WTB) shares were lifted by an upgrade from UBS to 'buy' from 'neutral' as it sees the market's predictions of sharp fall in hotel room revenue in the current financial year as "too conservative".

The shares are at "an attractive risk/reward entry point", the analysts said, after around a 15% fall over the past three months to around 4,200p, a valuation that implies the market see the Premier Inn owner's revenue per available room falling 10%, while UBS forecasts the fall will be nearer 3%.

The Swiss bank, which reiterated its target price of 4,850p, added that the group’s freehold property helps underpin the share price and there is “share price optionality” from Whitbread’s German expansion.

While Germany is expected to remain a drag on earnings until the 2022 financial year, UBS analysts believe Whitbread has an opportunity to create “material value” in a country with similar characteristics as the UK, possibly even better.

"At the moment we do not factor the potential positive value into our base case scenario but see German expansion optionality."

Whitbread also has little debt, "which enables [it] to grow in a downturn", and remains the dominant branded UK hotelier with a proven model.


proactiveinvestors.co.uk

[philanderer] 15/10/2019 09:30

Morning EU, just in...

In the FTSE 100, Whitbread was up 2.9% after UBS raised the Premier Inn hotel chain owner to Buy from Neutral.

Alliance News

[essentialinvestor] 14/10/2019 14:06

Reading some of the recent broker comments WTB strategy has been referred to as..
muddled. There was also another comment that the company is cash flow negative.
I can't reconcile that statement unless the broker is referring to the net effect
of bringing lease liabilities on to the balance sheet under the new accounting
regulations?.

Any views on the above appreciated, thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 11/10/2019 11:47

May regret this but have sold @ 4212.

[essentialinvestor] 11/10/2019 10:20

Cautious guidance at the interims could see around 36.