WFCA Plc Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 08/10/2009 09:58

IaB,

Just trying to see if I could get an answer out of theresearcher, which as expected, I didn't. tr goes round starting numerous threads off, posting links, and making share price forecasts, without any analysis on the assumptions that gets to that target.

I do my own research, and never, and I mean never, buy a share on the basis of what somebody has posted.

What you seemed to have missed is my tongue-in-cheek pop at the methods that tr is engaging in. If you want to see what real analysis looks like, then have a look at the Split Capital thread (JDT) from OCT 2002 onwards, and see how significant value was achieved for people that followed a well researched path.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 07/10/2009 16:31

I give up. Try and get a feel for a stock, and all the residents do is post links or throw questions back.

[imabastard] 07/10/2009 16:16

64 .... no, have you ? Has any non Ftse350 stock got a PBT forecast other than a generalised outline of potential market conditions ? ;o)

[tiltonboy] 07/10/2009 14:59

Anybody got a PBT forecast for the current year?

[tiltonboy] 07/10/2009 11:54

IaB,

Thanks for the reply; at last we have a basis on which to discuss the investment merits of the company.

You commented "Market share valuations are not generally based on the 'now', they are based on what 'will be' looking at least twelve months ahead", which is precisely why I asked for profit forecasts for the current year.

P/E's are obviously very subjective, and are a function of both company performance, and of market sentiment, so my suggestion of a p/e of 10 being about right, is purely my judgment of a level I would be happy to pay. If in your judgment the p/e should be 15 or 20, I respect your view.

If the company were to substantially increase profits this year to, say £1.2m, this would produce earnings virtually identical at 0.37p. Of couse the operational gearing may mean they are capable of more than £1.2m.

I cannot get a feel for valuation unless I have an idea of what they are capable of earning, which I'm sure you will understand.

I don't think it's too much to ask.

tiltonboy

[theresearcher] 07/10/2009 10:29

and new guy ready too ramp it up.

[imabastard] 07/10/2009 10:27

Tilton.... except your theoretical assumption of 'around this level' would also assume that there would be no further profit growth and no continued benefit of operational consolidation. Market share valuations are not generally based on the 'now', they are based on what 'will be' looking at least twelve months ahead .... and on this basis, even the 'now' is undervalued because the market cap doesn't reflect a £6.5 million Gross performance and a £7.1 million asset value. Taking into account, it's continued benefit from an operational cost and consolidation perspective going forward and the future assumed uplift in general economic condition, this renders the current valuation below par yet further.

The market need to 'notice' the stock and they haven't yet.

[theresearcher] 07/10/2009 10:14

RAMPING IT UP NEW APPOINTMENT.

[tiltonboy] 07/10/2009 10:05

IaB,

If you give a target price, you have obviously done some research to back-up the forecast. We can all pluck figures out of the air. The figures just released justify a price of around this level. Hence, why I'm asking for forecasts for next year.

Now, lets have some good analysis, and then we can put some "meat on the bones".

tiltonboy

[imabastard] 07/10/2009 09:33

Tilton .... don't think anyone is 'obliged' to answer a question on a thread.

Given the 75% increase in Gross Profit, the reduction in costs and the NAV (not far below the market cap), it would suggest that the price of this share should appreciate, assuming the market 'notice'.

"All long term debt has been eliminated, current debt reduced
significantly and the net assets of the Group increased by 77% to GBP7.1 million over the financial year."

[tiltonboy] 07/10/2009 08:58

tr,

I seem to have to ask three times before I get an answer to my questions.

For the second time, what do you base your target price on?

Do I need to ask again?

tiltonboy

[theresearcher] 07/10/2009 08:31

1st of the day should get popular.

[tiltonboy] 07/10/2009 07:25

tr,

What I find odd is how you can have a target price for a share, without having an idea of what future earnings are likely to be.

What do you base your target price on?

How come you don't post on HML anymore? I enjoyed you winding the troops up!!!

tiltonboy

[theresearcher] 07/10/2009 05:59

short listed for sony mega advertising deal.

[theresearcher] 07/10/2009 04:56

august contracts not released by rns.at an alltime low.

[theresearcher] 07/10/2009 04:43

morning all.tb im not in this to give predictions i prefer to give links too information so pi,s can make thier own decisions.hope that answers your question.gl

[tiltonboy] 06/10/2009 17:55

tr,

Why are you avoiding my question?

tiltonboy