Westcity Share Discussion Threads

[charles bronson] 26/9/2001 18:23

say cheese!

behave wombbroom

[wombbroom] 26/9/2001 18:14

or am i being to gullible

[wombbroom] 26/9/2001 18:13

is that pic for real?

[energyi] 23/9/2001 15:00

buried treasure...
NvestNotes Outline
Slide#
1) Mission
2) Manager
3) Performance
4) Volatile Markets
5) Riding the Waves

[energyi] 23/9/2001 15:00

THE MYTH OF THE PHANTOM SHORT

I remember a friend who had lived in the Communist world telling
me about how the public was handled in his homeland. He said,
if a lie is widely heard, it doesn't matter whether or not it is
true, because people will believe it. The same may go for what
I call, The Myth of the Phantom Gold Short.

We have all heard it. It is now widely repeated in press articles.
Is it true or is it hogwash? People have bought gold and gold shares
because they believe it. But it may be false, or just a gross
exaggeration of an old story. If it proves to be false, then the
deluded Bulls may suffer. The Phantom short may not need to be
covered after all.

Here's the story. There are parties out there, mostly banks and
especially JPMorgan Chase that have huge positions in the Gold
market. According to the story, they took gold deposits from
Central Banks, and sold it short. Perhaps using the funds so
generated to invest in something with a higher return. The economics
of this so-called "Gold Carry Trade" are compelling. Gold can be
borrowed at less than 1% interest. If invested in T-Bonds yielding
5%, then there is a 4% positive spread. And the return will be
higher if Gold falls. Then, the borrowed Gold can be repaid by
buying it in at a cheaper price. The problem arises, if the Gold
price increases. Then, the borrowed gold must be bought back more
expensively. After all, he who sells what isn't his'own must buy
it back or go to prison.

GATA and others seem to believe that these big shorts will get
crushed by losses from buying back shorts in a panic if gold rises
beyond some theoretical "line in the sand". It was supposed to
be $300, then $310, then $325. The buying panic never materialised.

What evidence is there for this Big Short?

There is some historical evidence of panic when gold rises.
In 1999, the gold price shot up from $252 to $3xx in only xx trading
sessions. Over half of this rise came because the market knew that
some gold miners were being forced by their bankers to come up
with cash, or cover short positions. My view is that this applied
(in its most dangerous form) to only a handful of miners, notably
Ashanti and Cambior, who were running Assymetrical hedging programmes.
More about this in the "Golden Rules of Hedging":


Since then, gold miners have wised up. They sell fewer calls, and
they are much less likely to leave "margin triggers" in the hands of
their bankers. Perhaps that is why we saw no panic during the recent
$xx rise in the POG. Indeed, the gold lease rates stayed low or
declined, suggesting that gold was readily available for borrowing.

But that is not quite what the market believes. According to speculation
originating possibly from GATA, big hedge fund LTCM was carrying a huge
position in Gold when they nearly went bust. Conspiricy theorists seem
to believe that this was transferred to JPM and and a handful of other
big banks at the assistance of the Federal Reserve. According to the
most avid of these theories, this short has never been covered,
because it would have pushed up the gold price at an inopportune
moment, and ruined the Fed's strong dollar / lower interest rate policy.
Black hands (in the form of a anti-gold conspiricy) are out there,
pushing down the price of gold, from fresh short-selling, to keep these
conspiricy insiders from losing money. But on some glorious day,
they will cave in and buyback those shorts.

Further oft-cited evidence is the massive size of JPM's gold derivatives
book. And this is a reported figure ...

In reality, I have some idea about how this works. I used to be in the
Commodity Derivatives business

...MORE TO COME / still writing...
xxxxxxx

[hyper al] 22/9/2001 22:06

energyi

Thanks, keep writing.

[energyi] 22/9/2001 19:38

BUSINESS CAFES, A place between Home and Office

This paper is to describe a business opportunity which I call Business Cafes (or "BC's"). I believe it to be recession proof.

At the moment, both the high and low ends of the SME business start-up market are being well served. Customer needs in between are not being adequately addressed. Of particular interest, are small businesses which can be largely run via the web and/or branches of businesses based elsewhere. Additionally, the trend towards "hot desking" and remote working is creating a growing need for flexible temporary working environments, without the commitment of renting a full office or even a desk in the same location on a day-to-day basis. All of these needs would be served by BC's.

I have not done any substantial research of the size of this market, but I believe it to be sizable and growing. And a recession, if it comes, should increase the growth rate. Many of those thrown into a weak job market with a redundancy payment in hand are likely to be driven to establish their own businesses. Some will turn to businesses that can be built and or enhanced via the web. An element of the strategy is offering work opportunities to those who are within short commuting distance of each BC.

A new business can be started from home or from an internet cafe, and at some stage it may grow to a stage where it can rent office accommodation, perhaps from a company such as Regus or a competitor. But what about the intermediate steps, those between the Home and the (permanent dedicated) Office?

As a Proprietary Trader - sometimes wrongly called a "day trader" - I have almost everthing I need at home: a computer, various software programs, a telephone, and an internet connection. This activity is a microcosm of other SME start-ups, and especially those with a heavy reliance on the internet.

My business requires me to follow the markets, identify trading opportunities, and then execute. Previously, I could do this by reading the newspaper and other hard copy publications, and then phone a broker. But the old fashioned way is slow and expensive, and forces me to give away a potential competitive advantage, the ability to respond quickly to intraday news flow or pricing opportunities. In the past, one had to be inside a large bank or trading firm to have access to the minute-to-minute opportunities. But this is no longer true. The internet provides an almost-level playing field. I follow news and price movements in real time, and respond by executing transactions via the internet. Sometimes, I attend meetings outside my home to hear about new opportunities and to meet management. The ability to drop into an internet cafe, before and after a meeting, increases my flexibility and enables me to travel more widely, even to foreign countries, without worrying about missing trading opportunities.

Developing my proprietary trading over the past few months in this fashion has left me thinking that there may be a business opportunity in developing an enhanced internet café, with premium services at a premium price. These new locations, which I call Business Cafes, should be able to grow and service what I believe will be an increasing number of people who conduct their business not only at homes or offices, but would like to conduct their business at some place in between.

Some of the problems I have faced may point the way towards what premium services are required.

At the moment, many alternative locations provide an internet capability which is delivered in a haphazard fashion, and is often unreliable. I also have difficulty in hosting meetings when I need to do so. I must rely upon restaurants, pubs, coffee bars, hotel lobbies, etc. This is acceptable for the time being, but limits my ability to grow my investing business into something more credible. When conducted my trading solely from home, I found that the confinement within the same four walls as my living space cut down on my productivity and ability to concentrate, and limited my social opportunities. So I sought to take my business outside my flat.

I was not ready to spend £1000 or even £500 per month for a desk within an office environment. So I opted for the occasional use of a nearby internet cafe, for which I pay (only) £10 monthly for unlimited usage of a computer and a web connection. But I am finding that it does not ideally suit my needs. Like others in a similar situation growing a new business, I am looking for an intermediate step between Home and Office, which would provide me with some of the benefits of a full time office, without committing me to the full time expense. The solution would be a BC.

How would this differ from an Internet Cafe?
First of all, to make it viable for the service provider, it would be priced differently. The premium services that it offers would permit a higher tariff. And for the user this new service would have to be substantially cheaper than a Regus serviced office. But can it make money? I think it can, but it will have to find a way to offer these premium services at a cost far below what it would cost Regus-like company. The key thing in doing so, is to limit the number of employees at each location, to maximize the length of the revenue-generating day, and to get away from the very high rents that are paid for top city locations. I will have more to say about these points later.

Services that many may need which are not offer by most Internet Cafes and could be offered by a BC include:
1. FAX, copying, and printing
2. Stationary, card printing
3. File storage (virtual drives on the wed, accessible from any location)
4. Meeting rooms
5. Telephones services
6. Secretarial services
7. Training, legal advice,
8.

The above services would not necessarily be offered in every location at inception. It will take time to find customers and grow the market. Indeed, a viable start-up model might be to begin with a typical local internet café and grow it into a BWC as the new customer base is cultivated and the need for these services is stimulated and revenues from add-ons grows.

(Note: Anecdotal Evidence: I have observed a flow in the reverse direction, away from more services, at the High Street Kensington branch of Easy Everything. They started off providing services like printing, CD burning, discounted long distance calls, etc. Originally, the location had a staff of 2-3 people working behind a counter, occupied with selling tickets and assisting with the ancillary services. In addition, within the same location there is a 1-2 person coffee counter which is run as a franchise by Nescafe. The coffee desk, when asked for change, claims to be a separate business. However, certain staff are seen to be rotated between the internet counter and the coffee counter. Earlier this year, the internet counter was virtually shut down. The time-selling function was taken over by three ticketing machines machines. Ancillary services, like printing, have been dropped. Computer maintenance is performed by an engineer who is often hard to find, and must be contacted through the Coffee Counter. // Why the dropping of the ancillary services? My belief is that …

Not all at once, start with only some of these, build the others as the customers are built up. Where possible, the services can and should be contracted over the web. For example, part-time secretaries might register with each BWC location, and offer to do typing and provide other services on an occasional basis. The customer would do the contracting over the web, and the secretary would pay the BWC a share of the income she receives.

[alchemy] 18/9/2001 20:28

ttt
this thread worth a good look imho

[energyi] 17/9/2001 07:52

.Held at GNI: Pds

BNC Brancote CFD 5000 02-23-01 7225 04-23-01 8975 1,750
PON Psion CFD 5000 03-01-01 6725 05-08-01 6925 200
PON Psion CFD 5000 03-01-01 6725 05-08-01 7425 700
SGC Stagecoach CFD 12500 03-07-01 7292.5 07-11-01 9756.25 2,464
PON Psion CFD 10000 05-08-01 7725 07-11-01 6950 (775)
BTSM BSS Group CFD 2000 05-16-01 5125 06-15-01 6184 1,059
BTSM BSS Group CFD 2000 05-17-01 5125 06-15-01 6185 1,060
TWOD Taylor Woodrow CFD 10000 06-15-01 18050 05-29-00 19,221 1,171
WMPY Wimpey CFD 5000 8775 06-20-00 9,338 563
SHELp Shell 600p Put 10 05-xx-01 5700 07-19-01 2025 (3,675)
BNC Brancote CFD 5000 02-23-01 7300 1.255 6275 -1025
BNC Brancote CFD 5000 04-26-01 8275 1.255 6275 -2000
BNC Brancote CFD 5000 05-16-01 8275 1.255 6275 -2000
DUC Durlacher CFD 50000 03-02-01 6525 0.040 2000 -4525
NSB NSB Retail CFD 6000 03-08-01 4825 0.160 960 -3865
CAR Carclo CFD 10000 05-17-01 9725 0.680 6800 -2925
EXD Express Dairies CFD 20000 06-21-01 7575 0.260 5200 -2375
Sym.... Company........ Type... Qty...... Buy date..... Cost... Sell date...... Revenue Pr/ (Ls)
TWOD... Taylor Woodrow. CFD.... 10000.... 06-15-01..... 18050.. 05-29-00....... 19,221. 1,171
EXD.... Express Dairies CFD.... 20000.... 06-21-01..... 7575... ......... 0.260 5200... -2375

[energyi] 15/9/2001 15:51

Douglas,
Thank you for that! It tells the very human side of the story.

Here's an excerpt from the click-thru:
"I was on my back, facing this massive cloud that was approaching,
it must have been 600 feet off, everything was already dark. I normally
wear a pendant around my neck, inscribed with an Arabic prayer for
safety; similar to the cross. A hesidic Jewish man came up to me and
held the pendant in his hand, and looked at it. He read the Arabic out
loud for a second. What he said next, I will never forget. With a deep
Brooklyn accent he said “Brother, if you don’t mind, there is a cloud
of glass coming at us, grab my hand, lets get the hell out of here”.
He helped me stand up, and we ran for what seemed like forever
without looking back. He was the last person I would ever have thought,
who would help me. If it weren’t for him, I probably would have been
engulfed in shattered glass and debris."

[douglas-davies] 15/9/2001 14:51

Please click the picture.

[douglas-davies] 15/9/2001 11:47

Please click the Pictures for more information.

[energyi] 15/9/2001 08:31

This moved me...


THE TOWER

I used to work in the World Trade Center, North Tower. I remember
the long walk through the dark and crowded shopping maze and the
sudden emergence into a world of light. The real triumph of the building
was that it was so incredibly massive and yet when one stood at its foot,
awaiting transport upwards, there was a feeling of weightlessness.
The light and space around the elevators imbued one with a sense
of wonder. What joys were to be found at higher levels, when one felt
so airy on the ground?

The upwards journey came in stages, first to a landing half way up and
then a change of elevators for the final leg. The work-a-day trip on an
ordinary day would end on a large office, unremarkable apart from the
view. The occasional journey to the restaurant at the very top,
“Windows on the World” was a special treat, with the city laid out as if
in a dream, a monopoly board of buildings stretching along gray
roadways towards the breathing green of Central Park. People were
dots, too small to be seen as human. Cars and the inevitable traffic
jams in the distance were the sole connection to that mundane world
that had been left behind. Here one was truly a master of life, with a
god-like view of the world. The American dream realised.

I’ve been haunted the past few nights with brief but reocurring
nightmares. I can see myself in that old WTC office, surrounded by
desks and files. Strangely there are no people around. A passenger
jet appears as a speck and grows into a giant. Not surprising to see
an aircraft with Newark airport and JFK nearby. But this one flies
strangely. And as it grows in size it becomes a bird of prey. My
eyes widen and a cyclone of fear spirals from my gut as I see it
zoom into… Mercifully, it ends there. I am spared the unspeakable.

The other image that I have seen is from a distance. That tower
of magnificence, in a cloud of gray and black smoke. A rumbling
sound which I feel before I hear. Then the world collapses. The walls
undulate like a sheet in the wind and the skies rain debris of
unimaginable variety. The tower slides slowly into the earth,
retreating into a subterranean abode, shedding its gray reptilian
skin as it goes.

These visions are without people. My nightmare is sparing me the
human tragedy, which is beyond what I can contemplate or express.
My heart stretches into a dry throat when I try to understand the
suffering of those gone and those left behind. I will leave that for
others with better words and better hearts and less haunted.

[sunshine daydream] 13/9/2001 22:37

before I link.......was it flying saucers? Oh God, the illuminati. Well we do live in a very '1984' world, and there is mass mind control even if it has grown up accidentally

[paulinesmith] 13/9/2001 22:18

MM

thanks for that.

We have to be aware what is going on, on the other side.

[the player] 13/9/2001 22:13

maestroman,

Of all the news items reported in the last two days, that struck me as the most bizarre.

What were they doing with the manual as they were pulling into the airport carpark? Writing crib notes? One last look at the page that deals with the joy stick? Honestly!

But, conspiracy? No way.

TP

[maestroman] 13/9/2001 22:10

it does make you think though....a copy of the Koran and a flying manual on the back seat of the hijackers hire car....come on ...we are not that gullible...are we?

[schruh] 13/9/2001 22:00

An absolutely outrageous suggestion maestroman......but the world is a strange and dangerous place, so who really knows what the truth is?

[kingfish] 13/9/2001 21:51

Maestroman. What on earth possesed you to post this outrageous rubbish on here