Wti Oil Etc Discussion Threads

[mreasygoing] 04/4/2018 18:04

Following the Company's confirmation on 3 April 2018 that it had rescheduled debt repayments due on 31 March 2018, Weatherly confirms that it continues to be involved in negotiations with Orion Mine Finance (Master) Fund I LP ("Orion") to agree a long-term restructuring of the Company's secured debt facilities with Orion.

[gozo] 04/4/2018 17:56

After hours RNS.

[dixi] 04/4/2018 14:31

Who knows - but some clarity from the company about the last roll over of the debt and whether the restructuring is still on the table or not would help. Muddy waters indeed.

[augustusgloop] 04/4/2018 14:27

Their saving grace is that Orion can not afford to STOP the life support.

With the costs associated with closing the mines and fire-sale prices, they would probably be facing a $80+m write off on the debts.

What will be really interesting is if WTI start making $15m a year - will Orion accept the continued slow pay down of the massive loans?
Or will they insist on selling the assets to recover as much of the debt as possible?

[dixi] 04/4/2018 14:21

I guess WTI's only saving grace is that Orion can afford to keep the life-support running.

[mreasygoing] 04/4/2018 13:26

I'm sure that when we see a big relief rally in commodities after the China/US spat blows over shortly, you'll go back into your shell Gloop.

[augustusgloop] 04/4/2018 13:15

At the moment, it is better for Orion to not buy the cheap copper from WTI - letting WTI make the extra money (reducing the loss) because that means less tax than if Orion made the profit. [Orion get the money in loan repayments anyway.]

If WTI get to the stage of making a profit - then it will make more sense for Orion to take its cheap copper entitlement and so reduce WTI's profit.

Let's say that copper moves up to $12,000 - WTI are then profitable.
If I was Orion, I wouldn't take the risk of the price dropping again and would call in the $100m loans - WTI could now sell the assets at the inflated price.
Orion would get their money back - but there wouldn't be much left for shareholders.

Orion are in full control -- and will act in their own best interest.

[augustusgloop] 04/4/2018 13:10

$8000 will still not be anywhere near enough for them to start paying down the loans.

Its touch and go whether they would show a profit at such a copper price (once the depreciations are taken into account).

[mreasygoing] 03/4/2018 16:49

Exactly, if you're bullish on copper buy and hold, if not then sell. It is quite clear.I reckon copper will be closer to $8000 than its current price later this year.

[tren08] 03/4/2018 16:38

They need a margin of over $3300 a ton (before any other costs) to meet the quarterly payments of $14mil on tranche B. If we assume C1 costs of $4700, they would need the copper price to hit $8000 a ton. It's currently $6800ish. Long way to go.

[augustusgloop] 03/4/2018 15:26

LOL,

The debt is going up - not down.

I calculate that they need a 22.5% increase in the price of Copper (from what it was in the period of the interim results) before they will break-even.

And even then, that would probably not be enough to actually reduce the loans.

[mreasygoing] 03/4/2018 15:10

I've been adding. When the first debt repayments are made this will go bananas.

[jimmyhoffa262] 03/4/2018 15:03

This set to go lower. Best to remove all funds from here now

[jp2011] 03/4/2018 12:45

Re read RNS 6th Feb The Company is involved in negotiations with Orion to agree a long term restructuring of its secured debt facilities with Orion and to avoid the formal, quarterly amendments to its debt facilities.

[waterloo01] 03/4/2018 12:11

So they have kept it afloat a little longer. Happy with the future of copper but much rather play that via companies like CAML/ATYM/ARS than WTI which is still odds on to go bust.

[mreasygoing] 03/4/2018 11:36

Added just over a million. Print not showing yet.

[mreasygoing] 03/4/2018 08:25

It's simple really chaps. If you believe the Cu price is going higher in the future, buy and hold. If you don't then sell. I believe they're going much higher in the future. When the first debt repayments are made the share price will go mental.

[888icb] 03/4/2018 07:58

But Orion continues as it has done several times before to reschedule the loans so presumably as the largest shareholder as well it has confidence in the future of WTI.

[tren08] 03/4/2018 07:35

Today's RNS - Cash sweep + still unable to meet payments. Think Gloop could be right on this. WTI would need a much higher price of copper and margins to even dream of repaying these loans.

[mreasygoing] 29/3/2018 12:19

I think you'll find he is a holder.

[billthebank] 29/3/2018 12:13

Gloop does not hold wti.Why would he do that? His view on Weatherly is not a good one

[mreasygoing] 29/3/2018 10:00

Hope you added to your holding yesterday Gloop ?

[augustusgloop] 28/3/2018 22:07

gozo 28 Mar '18 - 12:01 - 15587 of 15592

....so little confidence that Orion sanctioned the purchase of Kitumba and Berg Aukus??

Any thoughts on that Augustus.

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Yes.

Orion are the real purchasers of these assets - the reason that they chose to do it through WTI is to save tax.

WTI could not have bought Kitumba without Orion's money.
Orion could have bought it easily.

If Kitumba is sold for a $5m profit in two years - that would have left a tax liability for Orion.
But not for WTI - who have loads of losses to write off.
All of the profit will go to Orion - as payment of loans.

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It is abundantly clear (to anyone with half a brain) that if Orion were to try to sell their WTI loans - they would be lucky to get 50p in the £1.

Orion's best way of recouping as much of their loans as possible -- is to do what they are doing now. = Run WTI as a zombie company.

Keep receiving the interest payments.
If the Copper price rises - call in the loans and sell the assets for the newly increased price.
They would still expect to make losses, but could recover 75%.