Watkin Jones Share Discussion Threads

[2theduke] 28/1/2021 12:02

Makes sense, I took 50% off yesterday and leaving the rest in. Bid is off, but share is holding its own vs the wider market moves. Unhappy about the US risk, but with only 50% in, it's fine. This company does "stuff", unlike quite a lot of the Tech bubble.

[sphere25] 28/1/2021 10:09

Closed out. The bid had actually fallen to slightly more than the dividend, and it's still under now due to wider market moves. We can all see how the dynamic can change with ex-dividends (when you spot them! ha).

Would have given this more of a chance were it not for the wider market move. Rather take some small loses on a few recent trades than get clobbered big if the US does follow through on these moves with much bigger plunges. The trading machines of the new era are dangerous in this day and age when they start spiraling out of control, sit and wait.

I'll buy back here IF we get big weakness.

All imo
DYOR

[2theduke] 27/1/2021 14:31

I Agree, it's a really annoying timing actually.. I bought it to hold to the trading results and see a rise pre ex dividend to get out, but it's playing at £2, a lot.
It's a really strong share, an investment without doubt. It's just noisy due to the dividend and covid sentiment.

[sphere25] 27/1/2021 13:30

Thanks 2theduke.

Missed that. Dividends! Oh yes, remember those? Almost a forgotten things with the way things have been.

Slipping - clearly watching too many things!

Bizarrely the dividend is incredibly inconvenient considering the price is bang on the chart resistance with the bid building nicely. The setup was there for the breakout. The way this moves, it could have been a ferocious one too - considerably outstripping the dividend amount.

It now depends on the whether the market buys up the dividend amount tomorrow to bring us back into the same strong position or at least above the technical 195p mark. Some of the buying will have naturally been for the dividend too and you can sometimes have the bid fall away in the near term when the dividend buyers move aside. Tend to see that with many shares with DLG being a typical example.

It's a tricky one now from a short term trading perspective.

Only have a small position, was looking to add on the breakout but all change now. See how it moves tomorrow with the gap down in the morning. If it gets bought up, will hang on. Exit if it looks weak and re-try at that next support level at that 185p mark.

I'll be surprised if this doesn't eventually crack this recent high so a different ball game for the longer term holders.


All imo
DYOR

[2theduke] 27/1/2021 09:50

Hey sphere - FYI ex dividend tomorrow at 7.3p re your stop .
Agree looking very bullish

[sphere25] 27/1/2021 09:23

Taken a few here. Might be a tad early but it looks like the bulls are taking control of the key price squares so could be setting up for a breakout soon. Stick a stop under 195p (being the recent low) and see if we can push on.

All imo
DYOR

[shammytime] 26/1/2021 17:11

Brilliant finish. Expecting a big spike this week

[sphere25] 26/1/2021 11:36

There's another big chunk of 500k mopped up at 201p just now. Any more to follow?

Clearly have buyers in size at these price levels trying to clear the sellers out, to allow the price to push on. Always hard to gauge how many exchanges it will take to end the tussle and whether the bulls can take control of that key 200p square.

All imo
DYOR

[investor0109] 25/1/2021 17:03

shammytime- certainly agree that it ought to be 240p, though believe will take a little more time that that. Should WJG continue to perform well, I don't consider 260-280p out of reach within the next 6-9 months.

[tudes100] 24/1/2021 22:51

Featured on this weeks Alpha podcast from the IC with Phil Oakley who is pretty optimistic on prospects for the next 2-3 yrs.

[shammytime] 24/1/2021 20:49

This chart is looking lovely. I will call 240p by end of month.

[zangdook] 23/1/2021 10:59

XD is 28th

[winski] 22/1/2021 16:06

I was a little disappointed the share price dropped back, especially as the dividend has been reinstated and goes XD on the 29th of this month. There has been some decent press on the share so I’d like to think the price will rise on the lead up to the XD date.

[sphere25] 22/1/2021 15:49

Another I sold too early - hip hip...

Just noting the interesting ding dong going on at 200p currently. Naturally the psychological marks come into play here, even though they are completely and utterly irrelevant. It never makes sense, we just sort of quasi-roll with it kinda thinga ma bob.

Who cares in this market anyway. IG just bought what appears to be a sandwich exchange.

Almost two million exchanged so far. Interested to see if the buyers can exhaust the sellers for a trading opportunity. The chart becomes a beauty for a breakout if it that happens and makes the next leg higher. The 5 day chart says a break and close above 205p is needed.

Just watching for now.

All imo
DYOR

[energeticbacker] 20/1/2021 11:00

Investor's Champion comments that they like the lower risk forward funding model followed by Watkin Jones and there appears renewed appetite on the part of institutional investors to fund the sort of developments they construct.

New research on Investor's Champion.

[rat attack] 20/1/2021 09:57

Article from Investors Champion



Despite the challenging conditions, full year results from the leading developer of student accommodation were encouraging. With a significant opportunity in Build to Rent accommodation and institutions willing to provide funding, Watkin Jones looks well-placed to benefit from a supportive market.

Watkin Jones (LON:WJG), the UK's leading developer and manager of residential for rent with a focus on the build to rent ('BtR') and purpose built student accommodation ('PBSA') sectors , announced decent results for the year ending 30 September 2020.

While revenue fell 5.5% to £354.1m, primarily as a result of forward sales of developments being deferred due to COVID-19 uncertainty, that looks a pretty good result in the circumstances.

Adjusted operating profit was only 7.1% lower at £51.7m with the impact of disruption on operations minimised and additional construction costs substantially mitigated, and planned deliveries for the year all completed.

Exceptional costs of £20.5m, including £14.8m in relation to remediating cladding on a number of past developments and £5.7m of additional costs in relation to COVID-19, saw statutory profit fall 47% to £25.3m. There seems some inconsistency in their communication of the impact of the pandemic, with additional costs relating to this simply being treated as ‘exceptional’.

With all Government financial assistance of £0.8m repaid at the start of 2021, management is able to propose a full-year final dividend of 7.35 pence.

The operating cash inflow was £38.3m and free cash inflow £32m, boosting period end net cash to £94.8m of net cash, up from £76.8m at 30 September 2019. With £65.0m undrawn on their revolving credit facility they have plenty of fire power.

Management confirmed a good start to the 2021 financial year, with new forward sales and developments progressing well.

Watkin Jones reports across 4 business lines:
BtR,
PBSA,
Accommodation Management business (Fresh) and
Residential.

BtR made a significant contribution to performance, with revenue up 21% to £94.0m and gross profit £14.9m, representing a margin of 15.8%

In BtR development 928 apartments across five sites have been forward sold for delivery over the period to the 2022 financial year (all date reference here are to September financial year ends). A further three sites (722 apartments) are currently in negotiation for sale for delivery over the period 2022 to 2023. They have a total secured BtR development pipeline of 4,466 apartments across 13 sites, for delivery between 2021 and 2025, suggesting decent visibility.

[rat attack] 19/1/2021 17:26

Presentation 4 February, sign up here if interested

hxxps://register.gotowebinar.com/register/842238413915849227

[investor0109] 19/1/2021 13:23

toptomcat- many thanks, his closing statement here: 'Analysts at Progressive Equity Research are predicting current year EPS of 15.8p, rising to 17.4p in 2021/22 and pencil in respective dividends per share of 8p and 8.7p. On this basis, the shares are rated on a modest price/earnings ratio of 12.8 falling to 11.6 and offer an attractive prospective dividend yield of 4 and 4.3 per cent, respectively. Mr Simpson also notes that financial distress in the leisure, retail and office sectors will enable Watkin Jones to make opportunistic purchases of new sites at favourable prices, another bull point.

From a technical perspective, the shares have broken out of the 183p upper ceiling of the post stock market crash trading range as I predicted back in November. I have no reason to change my strong buy recommendation, nor my 240p to 250p target price. Strong buy.'

[toptomcat] 19/1/2021 12:53

ST reiterates Strong Buy recommendation and 240p-250p price target

[clausentum] 19/1/2021 11:59

I expect a comment from Questor, an ideal investment for DT readers.

[its the oxman] 19/1/2021 10:10

Key is outlook which is clearly very positive. Nice div being paid and further recovery is expected. No real student occupancy hit to talk of and long way to go to reclaim its past high c.285p. Should trade through 200p and get a few tips now I expect.

[investor0109] 19/1/2021 09:26

Progressive Equity Research published this morning- confirms why confident on WJG. Full research found on Progressive's website (and on link kindly provided by 'rat attack', though an extract from summary here:

'Watkin Jones in brief: low-risk, capital-light in growth markets
The Group, admitted to AIM in 2016, in our view offers a unique low-risk, capital-light
development and asset management model for private and student rental. It develops BTR
and PBSA schemes, largely forward-funded by institutional investors, which acquire sites
from WJ with the benefit of planning and then pay for the works monthly as development
progresses, thus reducing capital tie-up for WJ. The Group also provides an accommodation
management service through its Fresh Property Group (FPG) business, which manages
both WJ and third party developed assets, and operates a more traditional housebuilding
business focused on the North West. We believe the Group should benefit from continuing
growth opportunities in new student accommodation, has ‘early mover advantage’ in BTR
and this is all tied together by FPG in what we have defined as a ‘virtuous circle’. For more
details, see 9 June 2020 initiation, Build-to-rent ‘comes of age’.
Themes: opportunities knock
? Opportunities in land market – aided by planning changes. We see WJ in a similar
advantageous position as some of the most successful specialist residential developers,
such as Berkeley Group, which have preserved cash and now see significant
opportunities from land owners in financially-challenged sectors such as retail and
leisure. We believe WJ could benefit from recent changes to planning rules, allowing
for vacant office and retail properties to be fast-tracked for residential use.
? Institutional investors return. Institutional investors have underpinned the Group’s
capital-light growth model, by acquiring developments on a forward sale basis, in which
they pay for the land and the development works as they progress. The Group has
indicated returning demand for both BTR and PBSA after a hiatus during Covid.
? Build-to-rent. As we argued in our initiation note, we expect long-term growth in BTR,
fuelled by demand from renters, either economically or for ‘life-style217;, and from
investors, attracted by income prospects, while other sources of yield are diminishing.
? Student demand remains high despite Covid challenges. Despite worries that Brexit
and Covid may deter university entries, particularly from overseas students, UCAS has
registered a new record in the number of applications, from both home and abroad.
Whilst remote teaching by universities and uncertainty during the pandemic could
reduce the number of students choosing to study away from home in the current
year, in our view it remains the preference of the majority to study at their university
of choice and so we expect lettings to recover to normal levels post-Covid.'

[rat attack] 19/1/2021 09:22

hxxps://www.progressive-research.com/research/leaner-lighter-strategy-as-investment-revives/

[skinny] 19/1/2021 08:38

Just an observation.


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