Watkin Jones Share Discussion Threads

[srpactive] 24/10/2022 09:12

G

Yes then the recent fall will look well overdone.

Happy here well in profit and a possible 10% dividend.

Reminds me of when I was picking up gvc ( now entain )
for under a pound.

dyor

[goodpick] 24/10/2022 09:03

Yep an RNS may confirm the closure or these

[srpactive] 24/10/2022 08:59

This extract from the TS.
-------------

Two forward sales that were planned to close in September have been impacted by the recent market volatility, and these are now planned to transact in FY-2023.

-----------------------------------------------------

I feel with RS being the new PM the markets should become more stable
and as a result the above occur without problem.

dyor

[srpactive] 24/10/2022 08:43

Moving steadily in the right direction, lets see 100p.

dyor

[srpactive] 24/10/2022 08:12

Yes as mentioned I too feel a challenge of 100p for starters
is more than possible due to the political move.

dyor

[avenue_of_revenue] 23/10/2022 22:29

Sunak to be confirmed PM as early as tomorrow. Should be a good day overall in the markets. Stability and removal of uncertainty should provide confidence to sidelined investors to buy in bombed out stocks such as this. My expectations for coming week, we hit £1 or above. Aberdeen are all but out now should provide the catalyst to catapult to £1+.

[srpactive] 21/10/2022 15:13

Yes lets hope so, very happy here, bought the other week as I
stated then, in profit in a stock at pe 5 with possible 10%
yield.

Will increase further.

dyor

[avenue_of_revenue] 21/10/2022 14:54

Bouncebackability in progress. £1 first target which should be achieved very easily now that the seller looks to be done. Should not have dropped this low in the first place. This company is well diversified to weather the current recession and with £75million in cash, there is little to worry. Enjoy the weekend guys.

[sbb1x] 21/10/2022 14:32

Seller gone.. free to move up

[srpactive] 21/10/2022 14:29

If we can close above 83.5p we will have formed a double bottom,
very interesting moving strongly higher in to the close.

My next target is 100p.

dyor

[sphere25] 21/10/2022 14:24

Might be breaking higher this.

Price has touched a level above that key 85.5p mark, currently at 86.4p. It has given the middle finger before though. It can do this choppy and irregular swing that results in a stop loss being taken out, but it is worth a watch here to see if the algos back this break higher and push the breakout for at least a short term bounce.

All imo
DYOR

[cordwainer] 20/10/2022 15:54

Net cash according to the last update was £75M which overtops the circa £25M paid in dividends over the past year. I would still hope and expect management to take a very cautious approach to dividends for the reasons stated in the trading update; i.e. WJG's customers are set to face a more challenging future on borrowing / financing costs for their construction projects. Anyway it looks like Huntonomics will keep a steadier ship economically whoever gets to be PM.

On the face of it, WJG warns profits will be 10% below target range, share price down 50%. Having good revenue visibility and largely less cyclical businesses than other construction should make WJG a good risk/reward offer at these prices.

[avenue_of_revenue] 20/10/2022 15:41

Dividend will be paid. No issues with that. Looks like Aberdeen are on fumes, with not much to left to sell. Strap in.

[divmad] 20/10/2022 10:01

How secure is the dividend?

[cordwainer] 19/10/2022 14:12

Could get even cheaper just on macro sentiment. Continuing to carry and build a good forward order book also key through the more stringent times ahead but I suspect there's liable to be margin pressure especially BTR homes segment. Maybe increased mortgage cost may drive rental demand a bit but affordability caps it. In which case institutional demand might cautiously ease back.
But I can't quite fathom how student accom will get dragged down by the macro economics, possible headwinds are more than priced in for the medium to longer term and there's a dividend to collect while we wait.

[goodpick] 18/10/2022 19:00

Yep the upcoming end of year dividend will give it a push in the right direction too.

Circa 7.5% yield on this payment.

[avenue_of_revenue] 18/10/2022 18:18

Seller still lurking with not much left to go. Should be done soon and then the big move up starts. Strong order book and £75million net cash. Bought another £10k today. Just a waiting game and this is about patience and timing.

[74tom] 17/10/2022 12:40

Agree Sphere. Yet again we have significant buying being met with heavy selling at the 83p mark, you do think that once the seller(s) clear it won't take much to get this back over £1, it just depends whether it's ABRDN offloading the remainder of their stake (~5% at last TR1, so around 11m shares which is plenty to delay a bounce) or if there are multiple sellers.

Hybrasil, that's a very weak response to the points I made regarding you not appearing to understand the difference between WJG and a REIT / New housebuilder. You now appear to be basing your short thesis on the fact a lot of shares have been sold at 80p rather than previous arguments around the fact it should trade at NAV...

However, I agree it makes sense to leave it at that and see where things lie in a couple of months. Bond yields down significantly today at a level which I expect them to stabilise. As stated on Friday this should benefit almost everyone.

[avenue_of_revenue] 16/10/2022 21:56

Once the institutional seller (Aberdeen) is out, expect a sharp bounce towards £1. Seen it so many times and this is a great buying opportunity. £75 million cash, dividends at 13%. Current market cap does not reflect a fair valuation. Strong buy at 80p

[walterwhite1] 14/10/2022 18:35

Delayed publications make interesting reading this evening.

Particularly the 1 million share trade costing £820k
Selling pressure coming to an end??

[hybrasil] 14/10/2022 17:16

74tom
Building is never going to stop. And my posting history will show you I am very rarely bearish. (Ok I was on Argo blockchain)
I have a large holding in van Elle for example. I have holdings in several property companies
I just feel that there is an awful lot of nervousness round what Watkins Jones are doing as do the holders of several millions of shares who have sold in the last few days. Look at the trading volumes compared to average. They have sold at a 20% discount to the 2016 float if they were lucky enough only to have paid £1
The family have got out put in professional managment (and I believe that spec building
is spectacularily unsuitable for professional managers)
I’m not going to post now for a month or two
And bond yields have gone up again today

[sphere25] 14/10/2022 16:08

Thanks 74tom.

Unfortunately, it still isn't enough. In days gone by it would have been enough, but clearly we've had the smooth and now we have to face the rough. I guess the challenge will spur us on, even though the expectation is to rack up a fair few small losses along the way!

They have exhausted the big buyers at 82p and filled the offer there now so it looks abit grim. Someone is clearly sat at 82p-83p with millions to sell.

If some whoppers follow, it could break higher on those, but as per the activity at RCH today, it is hard to say how much buying it is going to take to even get a bounce at times!

Clearly not under any illusions about how bad it is is out there and how bad it might get so no excitable moves or expectations as yet.

We shall persevere, endure and come out the other side!

Onwards!

All imo
DYOR

[pre] 14/10/2022 15:49

Markets are fickle and looks like ftse has given up its earlier gains, confidence lacking in govt too many u turns which don’t help sentiment as it damages credibility imv

[74tom] 14/10/2022 14:10

Nice post Sphere, I've just added some more too post KK getting the boot. Gilts are already on the way down and I expect they'll stabilise post tax cuts being reversed. Stability is a scenario that will benefit almost everyone, except those wanting to short everything and anything ;)

I thought it worth responding to Hybrasil's earlier bearish post as I think it highlights that they still don't understand the WJG business model...

"I keep coming back to the model here. The suppliers of finance on which it is predicated simply will not (if I am right) be here"

Why would any patient capital investor decide to stop investing in the long term BTR / student property market because interest rates have normalised? For a start there was a shed load of student accommodation build pre the 2008 GFC when base rates were substantially higher than present...

If they borrow £200m to fund a development and have to pay 3% more interest then this will to be recouped over the life of the asset via higher rents. Likewise on a student property development. They are buying the asset for it's reliable and price inelastic rental income, not for the paper based gain in underlying NAV...

Their is a very obvious bear case against all UK housebuilders & property REITS of both falling demand for new builds & falling NAV. WJG aren't in the new build for sale market and they aren't a REIT...

[pre] 14/10/2022 13:57

Chancellor gone, should see a change of sentiment as a reshuffle looks likely and some of those mini budget proposals may be altered to balance the books. How quickly things change and ftse 100 is up with support for sterling.