Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Water Intel. LSE:WATR London Ordinary Share GB00BZ973D04 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 122.50p 115.00p 130.00p 122.50p 122.50p 122.50p 0 06:30:09
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 9.9 0.6 3.6 35.3 14.70

Water Intel. Share Discussion Threads

Showing 151 to 174 of 175 messages
Chat Pages: 7  6  5  4  3  2  1
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
22/6/2017
23:08
Well, you all seem to have got onto this well ahead of me, so well done on that. I view this as a long-term investment, silverfern, so am not particularly bothered about the lack of liquidity. I just reconcile myself to the fact that if it goes wrong, I will lose most of my investment. The big attraction for me here. however, is that I think the reliable cash flows from the core franchisee make it very unlikely to go badly wrong. I'm buying multi bagger upside potential with relatively low downside risk.
effortless cool
22/6/2017
19:56
I think I saw a review around 18 months ago of the potential this company had and monitored it for a while. BOught around 70p around Feb 16. I have around 30k shares, prob averaging around 100p. Shifting even that number of shares would at this stage affect the price. I would very much like to see more trading volume.
silverfern
22/6/2017
17:37
Just updated my own spreadsheet for #WATR. Originally compiled about a year ago. EPS up from 16% to 48%, PEG 0.8 to 0.52, Debt (as a ratio to nett profit) 1.7x down to 0.7x. Just a few examples of the improvement over the past 12 months. Nice to see! NB. All measures compiled from Stockopedia (Caveat Emptor!)I Hold.
martinthebrave
22/6/2017
17:25
Ok, I have moved across EC - nice header & thanks for doing the work. I have been in #WATR since last August 71p, adding up to 118p. Quite happy with the progress, even has nice "top up" dips!! GLA!
martinthebrave
22/6/2017
16:47
Cheers, mick. I will update and my financial projections and the thread each time material new information is RNSd.
effortless cool
22/6/2017
15:59
Excellent summary EC. I bought my first lot a few weeks ago and also took some more yesterday. They are on a PE of 18, based on this year's profit forecasts which they confirmed in the recent trading update that they expect to meet, despite the increased investments to help fund future growth. A PE of 18 for revenue growth of 50% looks excellent value imo. Chart is also looking good for a potential breakout. Interesting to read about DeSouza's potential conflict of interest, which I wasn't aware of.
mickharkins1
22/6/2017
13:22
New thread: https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=41328535 Feel free to join me!
effortless cool
22/6/2017
13:19
Water Intelligence came to the Aim market in 2010, through a reverse takeover of Qonnectis plc. Its principle asset is the American Leak Detection (ALD) business, which it operates on both a franchise and corporate-owned basis. Background =========== As described in the 2010 prospectus: Http://www.waterintelligence.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Admission-Document-July-2010.pdf “ALD focusses on the accurate, non-destructive detection of all types of leaks including hidden water and sewer leaks, together with repair and other related services. ALD’s service technicians utilise proprietary training and specialist equipment such as infrared cameras and acoustic devices to pinpoint leaks, employing less invasive methods to find the source of the leak compared to breaking or drilling holes in walls and floors. Because leaking water can travel along water lines or leaks may be pinhole size along a water pipe, in many instances, ALD’s service offerings have the potential to reduce the repair costs for the consumer compared with typical plumbing solutions as they do not rely on a “trial-and-error” method of exposing whole sections of pipes to detect leaks”. Also taken from the prospectus: “[ALD] believes that its competitive advantages include its full range of service offerings, its brand and over 30 years of experience, the specialised equipment it uses, the training it provides its franchise owners and technicians working from business run directly by ALD, its marketing system and the key relationships it has with channel partners such as insurance and restoration companies. For certain segments of its business, ALD may face competition from others, including independent plumbers, repair services, other leak detection companies and services”. “[ALD] is aware of certain other companies or businesses that offer leak detection services. However, as far as it is aware, these businesses tend to be small owner-run operations without the franchise or branding presence of ALD”. The Franchisee Business ======================= The ALD franchisee business is the core business of Water Intelligence. ALD’s revenue model is principally derived from franchise royalties. Franchisees pay monthly royalties based on a percentage of gross monthly sales, ranging from 6% to 10%. It also derives revenue from the sale of new franchises and supplying its franchisees with revenue and equipment at a modest mark-up. As of year-end 2016, ALD had 96 franchisees, the vast majority being in the USA. System-wide sales for 2016 were approximately $75m, generating franchise royalty income to the Group of $5.5m. Http://www.waterintelligence.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Water-Intelligence-Plc-2016-Annual-Report.pdf Franchise revenue is on an upwards trend, in spite of a reduction in franchise numbers as some have switched to being corporate-owned (more later). In fact, this trend has accelerated during the first four months of 2017, rising 7.7%, driven mainly by new national agreements with an insurance company and a pool management company. http://www.investegate.co.uk/water-intelligence--watr-/rns/january-to-april-trading-update/201706130700038719H/ However, what the market seems to have overlooked is the remarkable stability of this income stream, which has the characteristics of an index-linked annuity. This reliable, high margin business provides a remarkably strong foundation for the investment for growth going on elsewhere in the business. Corporate-owned Franchises ========================== Water Intelligence has a strategy of selectively buying back franchisees in order to retain a greater share of the profits and to create regional hubs to support continued franchisee growth at a local level. During 2016, it increased corporate-owned franchises from six to ten and has added two more (one a start-up) so far during 2017. The corporate-owned franchises are the major engine of revenue growth, rising 61% to $4.2m in 2016 and 60% in the first four months of 2017. Although much of this growth relates to the expansion of the network, it is also driven by organic growth after reacquisition. International Businesses ======================== Although ALD has operated various international franchisees for many years, during 2016 it took its international strategy a step further by buying businesses in Australia and the UK. The Australian business was a former franchisee but the British one, NRW, is a bigger company specialising in municipal work, most notably with Thames Water. NRW is now supporting corporate and franchise locations elsewhere to bid for and execute municipal jobs. NRW contributed $0.5m of revenue during the first four months of 2017. Financials =========== Only one broker – finnCap – covers Water Intelligence. For 2017 and 2018, finnCap forecasts revenues of $14.8m and $16.3m, respectively. These have not been updated in response to the very bullish message on revenue growth in the June trading statement. My own forecasts, which I do not consider aggressive, give $15.8m for 2017 and $17.2m for 2018. The June trading statement indicated profits in line with expectations due to the costs associated with increased headcount and infrastructure to enable accelerated revenue growth. finnCap forecast net profits of $0.91m for 2017 and $1.11m for 2018. I am somewhat more conservative, at $0.78m and $0.84m, respectively. Cash at end-April was $935k, which the company advised was “sufficient to execute its growth plan”. My projections do not suggest any cash flow strain is likely over the next two years. Downsides ========== Besides the normal risks arising from any small cap investment, there are specific risks applying to Water Intelligence that should be taken into consideration. Firstly, it is an overseas business listed on AIM. There are many unfortunate precedents in this regard that have cost UK investors a great deal of money. There are two factors that give me reassurance in this regard, however: (1) It is a US company, rather than Chinese, Malaysian or Greek; and (2) the reverse takeover of a complementary business at least gives a sensible reason for it ending up on AIM. Secondly, Patrick DeSouza appears to have a potentially over-dominant role. He is Executive Chairman of Water Intelligence, contrary to governance best practice. He is also Chief Executive Officer of Plain Sight, a related party to Water Intelligence bringing clear potential for conflicts of interest. Finally, he is the largest shareholder, with 24.8%. He seems to be playing things straight thus far, however. Valuation ========= Water Intelligence appears to be well-positioned to establish a dominant position in a fragmented market. It is showing excellent growth, driven both organically and by acquisition. It is already profitable and its growth ambitions are underpinned by the near guaranteed profitability of the franchisee business, I consider a PE ratio of 25 a perfectly reasonable target. Taking my projected results and adjusting for debt, options, deferred considerations, amortised intangibles, FX, etc, I arrive at a valuation of 183.2p, which represents a premium of 38% to today’s price of 132.5p. I consider Water Intelligence to be a STRONG BUY. Declaration of Interest ====================== I hold 65,000 shares at an average of 118.8p.
effortless cool
14/6/2017
20:44
Due to investment, which will continue, revenue should increase by around 50% to $20m. This should give the company a bit of critical mass.THe company is highly profitable but reinvests to drive growth. It's a standard model. I would suggest they are aiming at revenue of £50m in two years with acquisitions in UK and Aus to complement to the business in the US.
silverfern
13/6/2017
12:55
Great update, very pleased with it after the price reaction to the FY results. V pleasing to see the direct insurance jobs increase so dramatically, area for future growth...!
mysteronz
13/6/2017
12:40
nice update today
silverfern
01/6/2017
15:13
Ditto. Added another 15k @110p
effortless cool
01/6/2017
14:52
Topped up into the weakness, 1.092. Hopefully will be a bargain in time given the 2017 outlook
mysteronz
17/5/2017
17:16
Well done EC - £1.20 to sell at the close.
basem1
17/5/2017
09:08
I'm still working through the numbers in detail, but I am very happy with these results. I took advantage of the temporary spike in liquidity to add another 15k at 117p.
effortless cool
17/5/2017
08:13
Same buy and sell price at present 117p to sell and 117p to buy Interesting to see which way it goes ?
basem1
16/5/2017
12:34
A very comprehensive set of reports. Happy with the results, good growth prospects and good management in place
mysteronz
16/5/2017
10:24
Finncap upgrade this morning - Water Intelligence ($WATR)- Growth strategy on track; target price upgrade from 128p to 144p. gr1982 hadn't realised you were on twitter. same username?
martinthebrave
16/5/2017
08:56
martinthebrave, Agreed! I followed @mginvestor from twitter into this a while ago and he seems to be ok with it. DMed him for his thoughts awaiting response but Im happy to hold these for the growth story
gr1982
16/5/2017
08:51
Took advantage of the dip this morning to buy more. A lot to like in the results particularly the "accelerating growth" story.
martinthebrave
16/5/2017
08:28
I sold 75% of mine last week at 135p Difficult to buy back in this morning. Had one chance at 1.07 and didn't take it, next time I tried it was £1.14 and then £1.19. Glad to see it bounce but I'm going to wait before I buy last weeks back.
basem1
16/5/2017
08:24
Disappointing results and a miss. Out at 133p and 110p.
foxman14
16/5/2017
07:24
Generally positive, would have liked to see a larger Ebitda figure. I was expecting slightly more. Maybe a small retrace today. ??
basem1
16/5/2017
07:07
Our next milestone is to pass $20 million in sales and that marker is within sight. We are also delighted to have added the leadership of UK-based NRW to help manage global opportunities. Meanwhile, as a balance sheet matter, we are pleased to have reduced net debt by approximately 25% and to have increased net asset value by 34%. So that will mean the market cap = turnover. THat undervalues this company.
silverfern
Chat Pages: 7  6  5  4  3  2  1
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