Vp Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 02/1/2007 10:20

Nice post Green Sand, and HNY to you too.

The H1 bias to the forecasts presumably reflects the TPA summer season - but imo the forecasts have over-compensated. They assume £14m PBT for the year, but the non-TPA businesses alone made over £6.9m operating profit in H1. Merely repeating that with no growth in H2 would give £15.7m operating profit (with no TPA H2 contribution at all), less financial expenses giving around £14m net as per the forecasts. But this assumes no growth at all in the core businesses, in what is also usually the slightly better H2, whilst assuming no profit at all for TPA in H2.

Based on the above there could be significant room for VP. to beat forecasts.

Bit of a chart breakout too today by the look of it.

[rivaldo] 28/12/2006 21:51

Grumble away PIM, always good to have all sides of an argument. I'm in CAR, TRI and CSLT as they could all have some way to go despite all having been good risers for me to date (I'm not sure there's much upside in RNO for a while yet, don't know much about SPT).

VP's latest broker forecasts are interesting.

2007 2008
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Teather & Greenwood 20-12-06 BUY 14.00 21.80 7.60 16.40 25.40 8.60
Brewin Dolphin 13-12-06 BUY 13.90 21.70 7.60 15.90 24.91 8.30
Numis Securities Ltd 04-12-06 ADD 14.10 22.00 7.20 15.80 24.60 8.00

We're not far away from the 2007/8 year, when VP will be on a current year P/E of only around 12.8. Too low imo - the growth and prospects could support a 30% re-rating to around 420p over early 2007. An ideal ISA candidate.

[petersinthemarket] 28/12/2006 21:08

Happy New Year to everyone, and Best of luck with your patience Green Sand - I'm still in there myself at the moment, but as I said before my finger is still hovering over the sell button.

The chart looks interesting at the moment but my crystal ball is a bit too cloudy for me to see where the share price might be going yet.

If we are talking about last Xmas, then a look at the chart at the top here tells all you need to know. From December 2005 to April 2006 the share price rose from around 200p to around 370p. Wow - give me some more of that any day.

Unfortunately, in May 2006 it dropped like a rock, along with many others, and it still hasnt got back to where it was.

Trading over Xmas can be a bit unpredictable, so I'll sit and watch for a bit longer yet, but I'm sitting on a 33% gain at present and tempted to pull the cash to put into something else.

If its of any interest to anyone, I'm looking to choose one or more targets from car, rno, cslt, tri, spt.

Anyway, dont mind me, I just like a good grumble.
PIM

[diogenesj] 22/12/2006 11:28

No offence meant, Peter. Happy Christmas, and the same to all the other loyal VP fans. :-)

[ed 123] 22/12/2006 10:54

Thanks, r.

Have a good break, everyone.

[rivaldo] 22/12/2006 10:49

Nice to see the bid price well up today and the spread a lot more inviting.

Merry Xmas everyone!

[rivaldo] 21/12/2006 12:16

DiogenesJ - 20 Dec'06 - 10:07 - 470 of 477

LOL DJ! You are indeed a good 'un, that post made my morning. Take it in the right spirit Peter, and merry Xmas to you.

As virtually everyone else here seems to think, I'm perfectly happy with VP. inching up to 375p-400p over the next few months tax-free in the ISA without having to worry. And it may just get there a bit quicker if it gets any New Year tips or makes a decent announcement.

[rik shaw] 20/12/2006 22:25

400p in 3 months will be good enough for me.

[ed 123] 20/12/2006 22:24

It may not need clarification but just in case, my post 473 was intended to be humourous. DJ is a good 'un in my book.

P, I'm happy here. It looks like a safe-ish growth stock. No doubt better returns could be found elsewhere. I suppose it depends on one's time horizon and attitude to risk/reward.

[petersinthemarket] 20/12/2006 19:47

This discussion became much too erudite for me. I'll put it more simply. IMO. VP is bumping along the top of its long term trend channel. VP share price is going nowhere spectacular in the short term, ie months. Cash might be better employed elsewhere. I'm still a holder, but as you see, my finger is hovering over the button. More discussion welcome, but can we make it funnier please, its the time of year for good will. Best wishes to all fellow crystal-ball-gazers.

[diogenesj] 20/12/2006 10:29

I'm known for my modesty, Ed: but I meant it in the sense correctly identified by GS above. :-)

[ed 123] 20/12/2006 10:24

My dictionary gives vacuous as "bereft of ideas or intelligence."

Not like you to be self deprecating, DJ. ;-)

[ed 123] 20/12/2006 10:17

Well, perhaps. IMHO, VP. looks undervalued in the market by about 10% compared to SDY. However, VP. has a lower market cap and is tightly held and so is less likely to attract the institutions. It needs a spur to get a higher rating. As you imply, the next results may provide that spur. Alternatively, an institution may begin to accumulate. The business model is sound and the Company's markets are sound. The longer term chart is climbing steadily. There may a step change developing in the chart due to the effect of the acquisitions. Time will tell.

Still holding here. I consider this a good home for some of my dosh.

[green sand] 20/12/2006 10:11

Vacuous - A term used by philosophers of science to describe a theory that fails to compete with alternatives. For example, it is vacuous to hypothesise that a tossed dice will fall with a number uppermost.

[diogenesj] 20/12/2006 10:07

Too vacuous to discuss, I'm afraid, P.

[petersinthemarket] 20/12/2006 09:57

Difficult to see the share price going much further till at least next results. If you ignore the anomoly in early 2006, the share price is now meeting a reliable resistance line that is several years old. Discuss.
PIM

[green sand] 16/12/2006 08:55

Now I know why he cashed in:-)

[rivaldo] 15/12/2006 11:42

Congrats GS. I'm slightly more of a latecomer :o))

FYI there's a feature in today's IC about the trends for 2007, recommending various companies - including VP. The IC calls VP "good value", with demand for VP's digging equipment being boosted in early 2007 by a Competition Commission review in the water industry of the cost of capital to be applied to regulated assets.

Sounds good even if I don't fully understand it!

[green sand] 15/12/2006 08:19

Agreed rivaldo, just being at bit frivolous, Jim Slater's comment "greed is good if its working for you". These guys have got me from 75p to 320p more power to their elbow! Merry Xmas Mr Stothard

I likewise reserve judgement if it becomes a batch

[rivaldo] 14/12/2006 20:41

Yep, the Stothard household won't be needing their winter fuel allowance....

Funnily enough I view this relatively favourably - looking at the transactions yesterday his shares easily found a home after good results, which is one of the few and best times to take advantage of liquidity and interest. The price has been rising despite this block of shares coming on to the market - seems to me there's plenty of interest at these levels (though if other directors followed suit I'd reconsider pretty swiftly).

[green sand] 14/12/2006 16:18

Xmas comes but once a year? Must have a big Argos bill?



£20k in - £476k out! I do hope those he has left in perform well, his livelihood may depend upon it:)

[rivaldo] 12/12/2006 14:45

6k just bought at 330p, 2p above the offer? Looks like a good sign.

[qs9] 11/12/2006 21:44

Agreed with all sentiments and have been a long-term VP holder....at some point they may attract attention of bigger players like Speedy Hire me thinks unless the shares begin motoring....DYOr etc