Volex Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 23/7/2015 15:52

Positive sentiment ahead of tomorrow's AGM statement.

Can't last, can it?


PS - there were 3.8m shares traded on 15th July, over 3% of total shares - but no RNS. Odd, no?

[penycae] 01/7/2015 22:54

Evening all.
BP looks to be a buy around 413. Got no position there, just use the thread to irritate people. Keep getting those red thumbs down on all my posts. Only blue names can do that, so I thought I'd try my luck on here - clearly no one on here can afford a subscription.
Hope this works out. Those wiggly things starting to resemble a child's drawing of a tea cup with a handle.
Just sayin'.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/6/2015 16:11

Ah, go away for a few days and out come the trolls (2559). Typical. Thought we were due to reconvene here in January, not a mere 6 months on?

As it happens, this is in danger of continuing up, Greece notwithstanding - maybe a financial crisis and national bankruptcy, Eurozone contagion risk, currency implosion etc is what has been missing, as people the world over pine for the safety of an investment in, er, a cable manufacturer.

I'm told that charts can go up as well as down, but I'm not familiar with the first type/shape. Bottom left to upper right, positive gradient, higher rather than lower - not my bag at all. One day, Rodders...


(BP not too clever these days? Mind you, 'twas ever thus.)

[luckymouse] 27/6/2015 09:17

the wiggly bit shows the share price

[penycae] 25/6/2015 15:49

Wot's with all these charts?

[scantrader] 20/6/2015 16:25

I wonder whether Volex provided it.

[dogwalker] 19/6/2015 22:24

Useful plug in today's IC....

[cyprussteve] 16/6/2015 22:49

Sorry - posted in error

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/6/2015 09:05

Re this fictional supplier, my point is that they would already have these structures in place; while there may be a volume-based increase (e.g. HR) in those costs for an acquirer, it would largely be spreading that support infrastructure over the VLX operations - the substantial duplication could and should be eliminated. That's how acquisitions work - fundamentally similar operations, with economies of scale and eliminating back-office duplication.

On the earnings multiples points - all valid and have made the same points myself further up the thread. Current (or last year's) earnings in no way justify the current share price, future cash flow and profitability is key. Forward earnings are difficult to predict, external analyst input is quite poor frankly, and the most useful information is usually from the management presentations - but this is obviously biased. It will be 2016/17 results (not available before mid 2017, 2 years away) before the real underlying profitability is visible.

Truth be told, I think there are better shares to be long on, but I also think there are better shares to be short on.

[scantrader] 15/6/2015 01:47

You seem to think that the substantial costs of HR, IT , operations support and ITDA wouldn’t apply for this fictional acquirer.

The company ‘s basic earnings per share were MINUS 12.8 cents, and even stripping out the supposedly wholly non- recurring costs the underlying EPS was an utterly dismal 2.8 cents (about 1.8 pence).

At a target price of 90p that’s a grossly demanding PE ratio of about 50! Even if they doubled that EPS for year ending 2016 VLX would still be expensive on a PE of 25.

And is that really likely when they say “Growth slowed in the second half of the financial year and we expect the markets in which we operate to continue to be competitive.”?

I’m spread betting against this share.

Regards

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/6/2015 11:34

Yes, definitely some churn going on.

Some analyst updates - no detail, but (slightly) higher target prices:

hxxp://sharedealing.nandp.co.uk/broker-views/VLX/Volex-Group

(substitute 't' for 'x' in the first 'http' - thanks ADVFN...)



If I was an analyst, looking at this group, I would be highlighting the level of 'central' costs - a reported $7.8m, but stated after allocating out $9.0m to the operating divisions, in respect of HR, IT and operations support (see paragraph in Divisional restatement section in the blurb). So some $17m that can be stripped out by an acquirer, to add to the $16m ebitda that they just reported, which is itself expected to grow through revenue growth, and is stated before any additional operating efficiencies. Any sort of reasonable acquisition execution would expect to see at least $40m ebitda from this group. For a current market cap of around $100m. Come and get it...

[mach100] 11/6/2015 10:50

The market doesn't like it so much ima and so are in agreement with you. Saying growth is slowing would be a PW except for expectations are not that high. That said there are a lot of NRE around restructuring that won't weigh on the results as we move forward. I would be happy if we finish anywhere above 80p. There will be profit taking and those disappointed who exit today. When they have done their duty we will I am sure have investors who will want to buy into what is a turnaround story. Too early to sell for me as I am looking for at least 90p to 100p as an exit. Happy to hold as I bought in at 66p and feel there is more to come.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/6/2015 09:01

Hmmm, early days and nothing definitive (could not have sold higher and bought back lower in any meaningful quantity, plus a high spread of over 6%), but think we have been slightly done over by the comment of growth slowing in the second half and that we may experience short term volatility.

The rest is positive, including the growth rates, the net cash (not $12m net debt as per the interim announcement, which was the mid-March position - always be wary of mid-month versions of a net debt position, should always compare the end of a month with the end of a month), the new customers, the underlying growth rate in the data division (assuming the customer-specific issues can be addresses/sorted), the new power range, the new customers, the increased allocations from existing customers, the move from customers to quality rather than cheap dangerous versions, etc.

The other thing that strikes me is how we as shareholders cough up for just about everyone and anyone - they pay people to join, pay people to leave (including $0.4m for the departing CFO, who was therefor 18 months??!!), bonuses to people for being there for a few months, bonuses to longer-serving staff who they needed to stay during the refinancing, they pay fees to the banks and 'advisers' for the refinancing ($1.9m) - with another one due in under 2 years, share option payments etc etc. That's all excluding the non-people costs (AOC write-offs, onerous leases etc etc). Truly a gravy train at shareholders' expense.

Ah well, let's hope it all works over the longer term. A bit disappointing overall impression.

[paleje] 09/6/2015 11:14

Volex looking to relocate from California office to expand headcount from 15 to 40.

[luckymouse] 03/6/2015 22:34

Hope you enjoyed that :)

[suejarvie] 26/5/2015 14:11

Lol,keep up the good work,you're making the share price head in the right direction!!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/5/2015 13:51

Golden Troughs just gone below 5% - but only sold 20,000 on Friday. The absence of their large scale dumping has helped (imho) keep up the positive momentum. That said, they have missed an announcement earlier, as they went from owning 5.27% in March to 5.00% just before Friday's sale. Bit naughty....

I guess they just couldn't help themselves on Friday though:

22nd May 2015.................4.5m shares.................4.98%
????????????..................4.5m shares.................5.00%
10th March 2015...............4.8m shares.................5.27%
4th Feb 2015..................7.2m shares.................7.32%
8th Dec 2014..................8.1m shares.................8.95%
31st Oct 2014.................9.7m shares................10.27%
21st Aug 2014................10.4m shares................11.54%
14th July 2014...............11.5m shares................12.74%

Anyway, updated table above - they are still an occupational hazard to investing here, given that with that many shares, and selling, they represent an overhang. Miserable gits...

Just wait for them to start buying back the ones they sold in the 60s, on account of 'realigning their portfolio' or some such drivel. Hey it's only other people's money they are 'managing'.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



(I always knew it would end up like this - talking to myself. Probably better that way, on balance...)

[imastu pidgitaswell] 22/5/2015 15:34

33% rise in a month, and everybody has gone?

A few lines and a charty thing - 90p will be a challenge to get past - though nothing so far has been.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/5/2015 17:07

Nice close to the week - it's almost like owning shares in a proper company...

;-)

[rathkum] 12/5/2015 16:23

Probably on the back of TTG's trading statement

[spooky] 12/5/2015 10:06

Moving up on a weak day in the markets, there hasn't been any selling into the previous rise, so it could be the start of the next leg up.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 28/4/2015 09:48

Not unhealthy for a pullback, after that fast a rise - it needs a test to find support. The trades data on the LSE doesn't always tell the full story - somebody paid 80p yesterday for 52,000 (assuming it wasn't a manipulated sell...)




Overnight news - Apple flogging ever growing volumes in China - handsets, cables, data, etc etc. As far as I know VLX are back doing business with Apple, but not the same extent of reliance as before. And there is also Xiaomi, a 'strategic partner' who are growing the other way (outside of China). All helpful, hopefully.

[spooky] 28/4/2015 08:15

It looks as though they have identified where the sellers are, it will be interesting to see how it trades from here.