Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 30/4/2018 10:19

I visited VN for the first time last year. The thing that impressed me was the visible work ethic of the people. Street vendors and market traders were never idle. If they weren't dealing with customers they were making something or preparing something. They were very very industrious. Traffic was busy but disciplined and again provided evidence of industriousness.

We were told that despite VN being nominally communist, there is almost no social security system - eg no unemployment benefit - and the idea is work or go hungry.

We also spent time in Cambodia and in India in neither of which did we get the same sense of relentless industry and hard work.

I bought VOF with the idea that VN is going to make faster progress in developing its economy than other developing countries such as India.

[amt] 30/4/2018 09:49

I have topped up also. The pound has been falling back against Usd as worries over Brexit grow and the economy grinds to a near halt. That should also boost the net asset value denominated in usd.

[amt] 29/4/2018 22:54

The recent set back was probably caused by Donald J Trump twittering on about new tariffs.
Probably not that significant anyway. Perhaps fake thinking.

[mad foetus] 29/4/2018 20:15

I second that rambutan, they are interesting and well observed. I am going to buy in here next week. GLA

[rambutan2] 29/4/2018 20:13

andyj, your snapshots of Vietnam are much appreciated, I always find them interesting.

[andyj] 29/4/2018 12:22

Yes I agree, that's the point, although the PE is now apparently 17.2. Given the growth that is happening, it is very cheap. An American recently asked me if we have mobiles yet in Vietnam. The construction going on is phenomenal. The suburbs are seeing vast areas developed into very attractive apartment blocks. A good number of these are owned by Khang Dien House, I might add, which VOF holds. Most of the population are still in one room breeze block huts, but more and more are securing enough credit to move into apartments. But this is still very early stage.The centre is unrecognisable from only a few years ago. The cultural icons remain, like the Continental Hotel and the Caravelle, but they are surrounded now by new shopping centres and of course construction continues on the state of the art metro system. What really astonishes tourists who venture into the centre is Nguyen Hue. A wide, tree lined boulevard stretching from the river to the statue of Uncle Ho, it is closed to traffic on weekend evenings and becomes a family oriented festival that exudes such happiness and hope. Entirely safe, fun and welcoming it is a testament to the friendliness of the people of this country and their awareness of the potential of their futures.

[roman2325] 26/4/2018 16:25

PE of 19 when you're growing 7 odd percent a year - happily take that.

The countrys still so under the radar - most people I speak to think the war's still going on - this really is a lock up and leave

[andyj] 26/4/2018 16:03

Mixture of profit taking and mean reversion at play. According to Bloomberg, the HCMC VN Index (Hanoi has one too) has dropped to a slightly more palatable PE of 19. Although that sounds expensive it needs to be put in the context of a forecast near trebling of the middle classes by 2020. There is overlap between VEIL and VOF, namely Hoa Phat, Khang Dien and Vietjet, but other holdings are largely dissimilar. These may not be household names over there but they are over here!

[roman2325] 26/4/2018 09:59

Rising rates in the US was always going to precipitate an Emerging Market sell-off but the story hasn't changed this is nothing to worry about

I see no reason to spread my holdings in Vietnam the VOF management run a pretty diversified strategy as it is - sold my tech couple of weeks ago and am buying more here

[andyj] 25/4/2018 16:41

Rapidly approaching previous support levels. China, the Philippines, India and Indonesia all reminding local investors that shares do not continue going up forever. Yet the long term investment case remains solidly attractive. I am not adding yet and when I do it will be VNH.

[corguv] 24/4/2018 10:09

Bloomberg now show VOF with an annual dividend yield of 3.34%.

The discount to Net Asset Value at approaching 20% should begin to narrow
as investors appreciate that VOF is not just a growth stock in a rapidly growing
economy of 90 Million people but also an income earner.

The news from Vietnam continues to show significant growth in all sectors with no
setback anywhere. Thus the recent fall in VOF shareprice is put down to profit taking after the sustained rise in price over the past year and external factors.

A buying opportunity ?

[loganair] 10/4/2018 16:26

Baillie Gifford - Vietnam is among the best growth stories of the coming decade in Asia as it has a successful low end export manufacturing base.

[andyj] 09/4/2018 15:07

Interesting divergence between the Vietnam funds last month.VOF down 3%VEIL unchanged VNH up 5%Bloomberg today carried an article that stated Vietnam is the third highest frontier market and more liquid than some emerging markets, suggesting it is only time before it becomes classified as an emerging market. However it also described the run up in stock values as a bubble. We know there will be some dramatic falls along the path, but these will present opportunities to add for those looking to hold longer term.

[corguv] 02/4/2018 11:34

New closing high Vietnam stock market on Monday.
Industrial Production up 11.6% first quarter 2018.
Year on Year GDP Growth 7.38% in the first quarter of 2018.

[cfro] 29/3/2018 18:08

Good to see a 125k share purchase. Should be a good use of the money with the fund trading a large discount to NAV.


Good article from Moneyweek:

[roman2325] 22/3/2018 08:53

Jim Rogers plugging Vietnam on Bloomberg this morning

[andyj] 21/3/2018 14:08

Little VNH has quietly been on tear this month. There is overlap, but worth diversifying exposure to Vietnam. I particularly like Khang Dien House as vast tracts of land are being transformed into rather nice apartment blocks for affordable housing.

[corguv] 16/3/2018 09:04

Vietnam First Quarter 2018 Economic Growth forecast now at over 7%.


Vietnam stock exchange Vnindex has risen every day this week.

VOF share price now at a 19.25% discount to net Asset Value (HL)

[roman2325] 15/3/2018 08:41

"Goldman Says Emerging-Market Stocks Are the World's Best Bet"



"The add-on or the knock-on activity that comes from places like China is a real opportunity. As manufacturing has gotten more expensive in China, we’ve seen some really interesting opportunities in places like Vietnam. I don’t think maybe 10 years ago anybody would say Vietnam’s an opportunity because they’re a supplier to the Chinese consumer. Probably people would have thought that was crazy and today I think it’s a key investing theme."

Expect Money Week to pat themselves on the back for that

[corguv] 08/3/2018 15:59

The TPP had seemed dead in the water after Donald Trump took the US out of the deal early last year. But after overcoming differences, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and New Zealand finalised the details of the agreement in Tokyo on Tuesday, paving the way for the official signing today. The TPP slashes tariffs and Vietnam should be a beneficiary.

[corguv] 06/3/2018 16:05

The Vnindex finished up last week bucking the trend in most markets.

Monday opened strongly and tempted profit taking towards the close.

Tuesday saw a resumption in the upward trend.

[oldboffy1] 06/3/2018 14:42

Andy. It is really nice to have someone on the ground. I plucked VOF and VEIL out of thin air (so to speak) because I had been looking for countries with great dynamics. Glad to say that so far all is good.

As a minor detail any thoughts on why the Vnindex was down 2+% and back up today by the same amount?

[andyj] 06/3/2018 13:56

I first visited local schools 15 years ago and found them uniformly glum, neglected and harsh. Following massive investment, over the past 10 years newly built schools are springing up everywhere. Brightly painted to make them more child friendly, well equipped and all built around central green areas, the children are visibly more enthusiastic and academic expectations are high. I was surprised that the UK media was surprised that Vietnam outperformed the UK in the global PISA tests last year.