Victrex Share Discussion Threads

[velvetide] 08/3/2002 15:26

chart looks like this is stock is recovering - any thoughts anyone

[tightfist] 20/1/2002 22:57

Spin Doctor,

I too hold a fair spread of VCT's. Quester and Baronsmead are my favourites - I haven't looked at total return for a while - must update my calcs.

It will be interesting to see which/ALL? EIS's get covered in TER. The Allenbridge coverage was very selective - I'd rather get into Companies that don't need to pay a trail commission to shift their shares!. On limited data the Loeb Aaron promotees look good - there was an article in IC on OFEX floats a few months ago.
It's worth remembering that if an EIS fails, any loss is deductible against CGT OR Income Tax as I understand the rules; that limits the total loss to 48% maximum of the initial investment.

Hopefully we will get a few more comments on these interesting longer term investments from other bb'ers.

Let's keep in touch.

tightfist

[spin doctor] 20/1/2002 19:17

Tightfist:
"The Tax Efficient Review offers
· In-depth reviews of ALL (my caps) new Venture Capital Trusts, Enterprise Investment Schemes, Capital Gains Tax deferral companies, Enterprise Zone Trusts and Film Partnerships
· Coverage of the new AIM portfolio offerings based on the Inheritance Tax benefits of AIM investments"
But of course, at a cost :£295pa, refunded when you've subbed £10k. Claim also to offer initial discounts, but (clearly) not refund any trail commission.

Your comments re EIS re VCT are well taken. I'm happy with the (modest) tax-free returns on my VCTs - prob 7% pa on ~14 VCTs, from 1-5 years "old", tho' that calculated return includes the 20% tax break....
I'm in for 10 years (say); that comparison will be interesting. I'm also after a lower risk play, compared to some of my lumpy share holdings in PEPs/ISAs.
I will take a closer look at EIS's however.

DIY evaluation always has something to add!

[tightfist] 20/1/2002 11:32

Sinso,

I have been using Allenbridge, but with the defection of Martin Churchill to Credo Capital (www.taxefficientreview.com), I will probably go there now.

But - I suspect they will only evaluate EIS's with a trail commission, which seem to be in the minority. So if EIS's are the way ahead (post 17) maybe DIY evaluation is best ??

Regards, tightfist

[sinso] 19/1/2002 20:55

Do either of you use Bestinvest. I`ve gone for Unicorn AIM VCT and qualified for 2.25% discount.

[tightfist] 19/1/2002 20:06

Spin Doctor,

With all the VCT's being well down at the moment, I find it hard to ignore my (few) EIS's still being well up. The flexibility/visibility on Ofex-quoted EIS's is very attractive - there is also "serial relief" for trading within the 3 year limit, though I havn't tried using it yet. Maybe I have just hit a lucky streak, but I am seriously thinking of passing-by VCT's this year.

Any other views on this ??

tightfist

[spin doctor] 19/1/2002 12:18

What are ADVFNers up to re: VCTs this year?

VCT market is subdued, reflecting low gains to shelter. Several VCTs comment that the price demanded by businesses for a stake is much lower than last year - surprise, surprise.

NAVs of all VCTs have fallen, especially those with significant quoted and/or tech exposure. Any underlying growth in "intrinsic value", whatever that is, has been masked through a lack of exit opportunities.

No rush to invest this year - all have a good way to go before full subscription.

Quester 5, Baronsmead 4, Northern 3, Unicorn AIM and maybe Oxford Tech 3 are where my money's heading - generally well established in the VCT field, decent historical returns, nothing too fancy or focussed. Gartmore looks weak; Pathway has been slated (though treatment looks a bit harsh to me - I won't be investing in it however). This year there are no more conservative, income-seeking VCTs (such as Harvest last year, which failed to make its minimum).

I've subscribed to www.taxefficient review.com's advice service. £295/year, but refunded when £10k subscribed, and discounts remain. Hasn't really altered my buying habits yet, but useful nonetheless. The single fee also gives reviews of each EIS issue.

[m.t.glass] 03/7/2001 00:05

Breaking to a new high today?

[milacs] 12/6/2001 14:55

Down 30p on results. How far do you think it will fall.
M

[msm] 12/6/2001 07:54

Today

msm

[max101] 05/6/2001 11:46

does anyone know when the results are

[ntv] 31/5/2001 20:58

bought some more today

[zzaxx99] 30/5/2001 11:10

That's 751K in just over 2 weeks

When are the results, they're soon aren't they? Looks like PRU are hedging their bets a bit, though they've still got 11 million+

[zzaxx99] 24/5/2001 00:51

- just dumped another 426K shares. Follows another 200K dropped 9 days ago.

[netcurtains] 23/5/2001 13:32

Well we'll soon know if they are wise or not.

[shy tott] 18/5/2001 09:19

Good morning Net

I'm beginning to think that most pivate investors are still fixated with last years stocks, and expect them to suddenly return to last year's prices. Why aren't more people investing in tomorrows technology? (FCs are tried and tested, have really major advantages in terms of low pollution and efficiency, attract billions in government subsidies to launch the technology, are mentioned almost daily somewhere as a wide-ranging technology in diverse areas from battery replacement to the powerplant for zero polluting cars and low polluting, high availability and quality power stations).
I can only conclude that people prefer to invest in puff rather than substance (perhaps most are puffing substances which affects their reasoning ability).

Tax breaks for electric cars - perhaps some don't understand that this really means fuel cell cars? Blackouts in California - perhaps some don't understand that this will lead to massive sales of home and business-located individual back-up powerplants using fuel-cells. Very long-life, very quickly rechargeable batteries - perhaps some don't understand that these are micro-fuel cells.

With almost daily positive comment, and almost weekly announcements of some major fuel-cell plant sale (it is now a commercial business), and only two years away until FC powered cars are sold commercially (and with a subsidy) it's only a matter of time before fuel cell stocks start to move. I would say that it makes sense for just about every portfolio to have some exposure to FCT, and there are a few FCT exposed companies with various risk profiles to enable this.

[netcurtains] 17/5/2001 22:39

Hi,
George Bush - BBC 10pm news tonight.
He is giving tax breaks to Americans who buy electric cars.

lol - there was even a large buy today as well.

[ntv] 11/5/2001 22:42

one product sole supplier globaly looks like a potential target for one of the big boys to me but what do i know dyor

[shy tott] 11/5/2001 11:17

Net - I think you've got it right. IC said some odd things - 'Investment in additional capacity coming at the wrong time' - yeah sure, the directors are dummies who don't know as well as two bit journalists when the demand for their products is rising! Does the IC really expect less and less fuel cells to be produced in the future?
'One-product company' - I don't know whether Peek is a single polymer, or a set of similar polymers. The important thing is its product has applications in very diverse areas - metal replacement, medical instruments, fuel cell components, etc etc as their web site shows.
'Costs savings may be offset by higher research spending' - I don't know the trade-offs between these two, but I understood the new investment was quite conservative and easily manageable from their profits. I wouldn't like to invest in a high tech company which didn't have an R&d budget! Why I like VCT in particular is it is still verty proftable, even afer R&D spending.

I tghink the bull points 'Sole supplier of PEEK plastic, Strong trading so far this year' are quite convincing.

Overall, IC seems to be saying that 'VCT is a co with a fine trading record and a mkt-leadin product', but just overvalued in his opinion. But is a p/e of 22 overdone? for a profitable company with a good trading record, and exposed to fuel cells? I can think of lots of dross 'techs' with p/es in the hundreds!

So, the 'sell' has hit the price a bit, causing about £70ks worth of sells. I think I'll hang on to these and wait for decent analysts to spot their quality and potential and put out some 'buys'. I suggest IC put the journalist back onto weddings and funerals where he may be more suited.

[netcurtains] 11/5/2001 10:03

Gut feeling is...

1) Let the IC mag do its worst to the price.
2) Then buy.
3) then hold 3 to 4 years and see what happens.

[zzaxx99] 11/5/2001 09:27

No - don't really know much about them - only got somewhat interested when net curtains mentioned them on the thread.

At the moment, as ever, I'm awash with tech and pharm stocks - been looking around for things to diversify into, and on first sight VCT looked an interesting case. However, I don't really know much about the chem sector, so I'm a bit leery, especially after that IC piece (though as with all their tips, I take it with a pinch of salt). Have to say that their prediction of a slowdown on PEEK usage makes sense to me, and if you look back at their flat turnover prior to the last couple of years, that doesn't really inspire me at the moment.

Plus points, I suppose, are their fuel cell exposure, but they don't seem like a terribly cheap way of getting into that arena - also looks a bit of an outside bet, though this is based on the comments in IC - haven't researched the company beyond the most superficial level.

What's your views / reason for interest in them?

Steve.

[coolk4u] 11/5/2001 08:43

Thanks zzaxx99 for your quick response. Do you hold?

[zzaxx99] 11/5/2001 08:28

According to IC:
Bear points:

One-product company exposed to industrial slow down
Investment in additional capacity coming at the wrong time
Costs savings may be offset by higher research spending

Bull points

Sole supplier of PEEK plastic
Strong trading so far this year

"It doesn't take much to be a star performer in the UK chem sector.... Victrex has bucked the trend ... last year .. 25% increase in pre-tax profits, while its share price has doubled over the last 18 months .... outlook is less rosy.

... is the only commercial manufacturer of PEEK ... when demand for PEEK is high .. business is very good .. but given the cyclical nature of VCT's industry, being a 1-product company can have its disadvantages ... after a strong recovery over the last couple of yearsm those markets are once again facing a downtturn ... Credit Lyonnais expects slowing sales in H2 this year .. counterbalanced by strong H1 ... consoiderably slower growth in 2001/2 ... exposure to the US ... is a particular concern. Telecomms equipments has been a high growth area ... but recent warnings from Cisco and Nortel ... Ford and GM [are worrying] ... with many economists expecting the US slowdown to spread to Europe ... it's hard to see how current sales of PEEK ... can be maintained. So ... plans to increase its global production capacity [by 50%] .. could backfire. ... has reduced ... exposure to cost pressure ... gains may be cancelled out by investment on new product.

In Jan... signed a deal... to develop a variant of PEEK for use as a fuel cell membrane ... will spend at least £0.5m a year on R&D [to] 2004 ... building pilot .. .units will cost around £17m - should the project get betond research. Alternative energy is .. fashionable .. for investors ... joing the fuel cell bandwagon has helped ... share price .. possible ROI are stil far off.

Make no mistake, VCT is a co with a fine trading record and a mkt-leadin product .. but everything comes at a price ... premium rating to the ... sector is just to high. Sell"

[coolk4u] 11/5/2001 07:56

Sell recommendation in Investors Chronicle. Can anyone shed any light on this.

[netcurtains] 08/5/2001 15:33

Looks like someone just bought 100,000.
Although you never can tell with individual trades.
I have a few.
Long term hold.
I like the idea of FUEL CELLS technology as well as the MEDICAL APPLICATIONS