Victoria Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[abacus2] 24/12/2017 21:51

Sorry to say Clunes but I think your loss is going to become our gain.

[highasakite] 24/12/2017 19:52

Found this very interesting video on youtube featuring VOG's 50MW Power supply:

[temmujin] 24/12/2017 00:39

its only a question of time before china come knocking on mr Foo's door...

Abroad, China is investing heavily in natural gas from the Persian Gulf to Russia’s Yamal Peninsula (China Brief, July 7; Nikkei, December 18). A recently opened Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Sabetta, Russia, for example, was only made possible through Chinese investments, and will export up to 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to China.

However, acquiring supplies of natural gas from overseas is only one part of the solution to Chinese energy woes—China must first address its infrastructure problems at home. China is right to attempt to wean itself off coal. The levels of pollution from coal-reliant industries has real effects on people’s lifespans and general health problems.

The Chinese Communist Party’s centralized power is not a magic wand—as some foreign observers of China would like to believe. Directives from above frequently leave out considerations of circumstances at lower levels. Just as China’s GDP growth targets gave rise to inflationary reporting (and ultimately harmful policies), a slew of new government priorities across the range of Belt and Road projects to environmental initiatives have similar potential to backfire.

Note

China consumed billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in 2000. By 2016 this had risen to 210 bcm. The United States by contrast consumed 778 bcm in 2016. BP Statistical Review of Petroleum 2016. Accessed December 19, 2017.

[philippem] 22/12/2017 12:34

Maestro's you speak to much to your broker. Grow up and take your own decisions. DYOR and you won't need to rely on your broker.

[dan de lion] 22/12/2017 11:30

If they want this up and running in 2018, they need to start placing contracts very quickly, to stand a chance of making it.

[robbiekeane] 22/12/2017 11:17

must have been the only broker in the UK sad enough to be working at 7.30pm on the last Thursday before Xmas....

[abacus2] 22/12/2017 08:31

The confirmation of the new power station in Doula is with out a doubt a game changer, and would probably explain why the fund raising was so successful as there is no other viable fuel to create this new power.And as it is not Eneo who will be paying the bills it gives GDC a second significant customer. As with regard to capex the plant should not be that expensive to expand and most of the pipework in Doula is already In place.A very exciting 1st quarter to come.Happy Christmas All.

[deanroberthunt] 22/12/2017 05:51

"I'm not going to be posting for a few weeks due to personal issues" = "I'm going to post every day every five minutes"...LOL, very VOG like....

[highasakite] 21/12/2017 22:27

For 2018 VOG have clearly outlined their capex spending plans.

Take a look at this pdf. It's all there in black and white:



Following the recent placing the balance sheet looks pretty strong.

By end of 2018 VOG are forecasting gas supplies of 31 mmscf/d. Even if they do 20 mmscf/d the revenue for VOG will be around $65 million per annum (based on a grid price of circa $7) and huge positive gas flow.

[clunes100] 21/12/2017 22:05

High as a kite, hear what you say, all good points but you seem to be forgetting all the costs that will have to be met near term, add those in and I bet there will be dilution before anywhere near 70mmscf are delivered.

As an example, increasing the processing plant is going to costs many millions, pipe lines will cost potentially millions, connection potentially a fair chunk and developing other fields and drilling further wells will cost 10's millions.
What state do you think VOG's balance sheet is in at the moment. ENEO is a bad payer and we all remember the massive dilution when Grynberg delayed payment.

Anyway good luck to you, you have made your decision and I have made mine, I am happy with mine already having bought RRR with my VOG proceeds, check out the graph in the past few weeks. RRR is another basket case that went back repeatedly to shareholders but to those that have bought in the last few weeks, it has been a great ride with real potential. When or if VOG drops dramatically I might buy a few back.

[highasakite] 21/12/2017 20:14

Placing PDF document Oct 2017:


Gas Markets

The Directors believe that the principal area of gas sales growth for the Company will be the grid power sector. The Company already supplies gas to ENEO, which is 51% owned by Actis UK, who currently generate up to 50MW of electricity using GDC gas, and are planning to increase gas-fired generation to beyond 100MW. The Dibamba Power Station, which is majority owned by Globeleq UK, is planning to install a gas-fired power generation plant by 2020 at its Dibamba Power Station. Grenor Group, owned by Entro-gruppen AS (a Norwegian power company), is the holder of an IPP licence to generate 150MW and is planning to install gas fired power generation equipment by late 2018. The Company is in discussions with all
three power generation companies above and aims to secure binding contracts with them in the near future.

[highasashite] 21/12/2017 19:43

As he said.

Sell, busted flush.

[mr maestro] 21/12/2017 19:37

Just come off the phone to my broker.

He said SELL, trust me, SELL.

[highasakite] 21/12/2017 17:28

The 150 MW Power plant in Douala will be Grenor's which will be supplied by Logbaba gas.


150MW needs 30 mmscf/d of gas.

[highasakite] 21/12/2017 17:12

"I also question the BoD grasp of VOG's business case, as they repeatedly fail to deliver and make comments that continually appear unrealistic."


VOG have delivered plenty on the ground in Douala. $33 million revenue in 2016 from a standing start is not to be sniffed at.

On a final note VOG are not increasing the proc plant capacity to 70 mmscf/d ish for nothing.

All will come out in the wash and I am very happy to hold and buy more when funds become available.

[highasakite] 21/12/2017 17:02

"I haven't done any analysis on the numbers recently, but by the time you factor in all the percentges, Cameroon and UK costs, development costs and reality that Foo/Dik's 100mmscf are years away and not months. The picture does not look so good."


May I suggest you go look at the numbers again. As VOG have a more or less fixed cost base any ramp up in sales from the current position more or less drops straight to the bottom line.

I know VOG forecasts are usually wrong but they are predicting roughly a 200% lift in gas sales by the end of 2018. Now can you imagine what that what do for revenue/cash flow even at say $6/$7. It would be massive.

Gas to big power has to happen it is just a matter of when and at what price.

[highasakite] 21/12/2017 16:56

"and my guess is that there has been no long term extension, because a lower long term price could not be agreed."



There has been no new deal with ENEO until 107 and 108 were flow tested and that has only just happened.

[clunes100] 21/12/2017 16:07

a44 - from memory, only 25% of shareholders use their vote, so 13% of sharehoiders get together Foo is toast.

Shareholder pressure got rid of Grant M, when the Bod was asked what he contributed, no one could answer and no one came to his defence, even Grant M. could not answer.

[a44] 21/12/2017 15:55

Clunes100

I totally agree with your points and as a shareholder I also could add others that would not paint VOG in a great light but have chosen not to.

I am still a shareholder and luckily I did not take part in the recent O.O. and even now I will not purchase as I also believe should I want to increase my position I will still get a lower price.

I keep my holding to have the satisfaction of every 2 years voting against Foo's appointment and I am finding more people that agree with this stance.

Good luck to all shareholders and Merry Xmas.

[clunes100] 21/12/2017 15:12

Fats, yes you are right to an extent, Until a well needs to be reworked or a new well sunk, ammotisation and closing wells down.

I was told us$3000 per mms for operating costs going forward was what the company is basing its business model. This still leaves a healthy margin but less 43%, less Foo royalties.

I haven't done any analysis on the numbers recently, but by the time you factor in all the percentges, Cameroon and UK costs, development costs and reality that Foo/Dik's 100mmscf are years away and not months. The picture does not look so good.

Today's somewhat strange RNS has not generated the bounce that was expected, so chances are the share price will drift as usual until we get some big news e.g. Energy contract at a good price or sale of west med at good price.

I have been reassured many times by BoD members that cost will be tightly controlled, the programmes are financed and they will avoid further dilution, and as I write this today, I am more convinced than ever that VOG shareholders will be further diluted.

The BoD advised that the banks were crawling all over them to lend early this year and yet they chose to dilute again.

I also question the BoD grasp of VOG's business case, as they repeatedly fail to deliver and make comments that continually appear unrealistic.

But to End on a positive note, they have successfully stripped shareholders of their cash and kept the company going, I could have lost the lot.

[fatnacker] 21/12/2017 14:32

Clunes you forget the starting point for pricing was unbelievably high, obviously as more gas is sold it becomes cheaper, you can say the same about eggs dvds and pork pies

[clunes100] 21/12/2017 13:58

High as a kite - I admit that I thought just like you in the past but my view has now changed.

On your point about price pressure, when VOG started this we were at about Us$100 a barrel, then oil dropped and it has recovered some, but I was referring to downward pressure from customers, eneo got a lower priced extension, and my guess is that there has been no long term extension, because a lower long term price could not be agreed. I suspect that thermal customers have also extracted,conversion costs and possibly lower prices from VOG?

[pjj71] 21/12/2017 13:08

This is going to fly on the power contracts.. and no doubt the endless tripe from certain posters will be a thing of the past.. hopefully they have gone short and will learn how to invest the hard way...

[highasakite] 21/12/2017 12:53

As far as pricing pressure the move in oil from circa $30 to $65 a barrel is excellent news when it comes to thermal customers and new sign ups. $60 ish seems to be the tipping point where gas is more competitive than oil once again.

There will be pricing pressure on power contracts but the volume of gas solid will multiply hugely. More volume and lower price. This is quite normal.

The royalty situation is irrelevant to VOG's growth plans.

Amortisation you talk about is irrelevant. With a large capex spend this was always going to happen as it would be with any other high capex spend explorer.

2018 dev costs are fully funded.

By the end of 2018 cash should be rolling in from further big power deals none of which are factored into the share price at 50p.

I am very bullish and 50p will prove to be an excellent price to get in at.

[philippem] 21/12/2017 12:51

What would make the price fly is a tax on heavy fuel.