Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 19/9/2018 12:40

Thank you, nivison. Very helpful since I had no idea that selling to a US company was Victoria's publicly stated end game. That defeats my object of holding them as an AIM share for IHT purposes and will create a large cgt bill (though I do have quite a few losses to offset) since they are not in an ISA (I had to remove them when they went on AIM as that was not allowed in ISAs in those days). Perhaps I'll spread them round the family, subject to cgt allowance limits after offsetting losses and hope to live 7 years, though I think that concession might disappear in the next budget, and maybe buy a few in my ISA. A lot of headscratching, numberwork and paperwork coming up. Better get on with it.

[nivison] 19/9/2018 10:35

I am holding for the long term.(I'm in my fifties but who knows!) I don't day trade, I try to look for well run companies with good management and a good story. This fits.

The honest answer to your other question is 'I don't know'. I cannot second guess the inner workings of hedge funds and their algorithms. I try to keep things simple. The only thing I do know is that Victoria's publicly stated end game is a sale to a US company and the two funds that are accumulating at the moment are both US based. That could be pure coincidence of course.

There are risks to investing in any company. At the moment there are macroeconomic factors, i.e. Brexit, which is muddying the waters for everyone. The UK housing market is having a quiet patch. But most of Victoria's income is now from outside the UK and if I was a US carpet company looking for a way into the European market I wouldn't wait for the shares to be really expensive before diving in. I would look for an opportunity when the dollar is strong and UK shares are undervalued. In my view, Brexit is an opportunity for global companies looking at UK purchases. Thats about as sophisticated as I get.

This isn't my largest holding and I have quite a bit in cash at the moment. Only you know what you are prepared to risk, you just need to weigh up the pros and cons and make a decision. The balance of fear and greed! Could be wrong, could be right.

[bouleversee] 18/9/2018 18:04

I have a reasonably large (for me) certificated holding which has come back a lot but still well in profit and spare cash in my ISA. Am wondering whether I dare buy some in the latter or I could give some to family members and hope they recover. Are you holding for the long term which I was, although I doubt that will be very long at my age. I don't have time to keep a close watch on shares so don't trade, though I really should have top sliced. I wonder why they were so heavily shorted and now being bought back by a firm which usually shorts. All beyond me.

[bouleversee] 18/9/2018 18:04

I have a reasonably large (for me) certificated holding which has come back a lot but still well in profit and spare cash in my ISA. Am wondering whether I dare buy some in the latter or I could give some to family members and hope they recover. Are you holding for the long term which I was, although I doubt that will be very long at my age. I don't have time to keep a close watch on shares so don't trade, though I really should have top sliced. I wonder why they were so heavily shorted and now being bought back by a firm which usually shorts. All beyond me.

[nivison] 18/9/2018 17:37

Well maybe - who knows? I hope they have bought with a longer term thought process. But the facts are that Spruce have just increased their holding by 2,190,000 shares and the short will need to close at some point. Assuming that Spruce have hoovered up all the shares sold by the shorter where are these shares going to come from? maybe we will see a bit of a squeeze on the short. But I am no expert and that is just my guess.(and hope!)

[bouleversee] 18/9/2018 13:20

Perhaps they are hoping that will encourage people to pile in and then they will sell for a quick profit and start shorting.

[nivison] 18/9/2018 11:22

So thats just short of 27% of the company in American hands now....not all the same hands but nonetheless interesting to me.

Spruce are based in New York, Invesco in Atlanta.

[cmw1] 18/9/2018 10:54

What do they know? Spruce House Partnership increases holding from 6.18% to 7.93%.

[cmw1] 17/9/2018 17:28

You are 100% right,nivison. In fact, one of the world’s most successful hedge funds, Spruce House Partnership, has been hoovering up every share they can get their hands on. Going from nothing to over 6% in a couple of weeks!

[nivison] 17/9/2018 12:28

I think it will be interesting to see if Invesco or any of the other significant shareholders take advantage of this drop to add. The recent issue was oversubscribed so there still seems to be an institutional appetite for these shares.

The management seem very open with their accounting information - its all there for everyone to read and analyse on the new website. Ennismore obviously have a view but no one gets it right all the time - if that were the case this shares lark would be easy.

[countryman5] 15/9/2018 16:36

Is there a price at which Mr Wilding would be a buyer, even to the extent of taking the company private? Never under estimate the gentleman.

[brokenbuckles] 13/9/2018 21:43

I don't know but whenever I see Ennismore short a stock I run a mile. Look at their track record; Telit, Sirius Minerals, Dignity, IQE, McCarthy and Stone just to make a few recent ones. They arent lazy shorts (like those who sort debenhams and never look back), they only have a few positions and short when they have something juicy... and they just opened a short in Victoria. I generally wonder what they have found out.

[bouleversee] 13/9/2018 17:24

Perhaps the shorters have switched to VCP as RPC is subject of t/o talks.

[thefartingcommie] 13/9/2018 16:45

do you get the feeling that the market is shying away from companies that have shown terrific growth over the past few years.........but mainly through accquisition and increased levels of debt,rather than organic growth and recurring revenue streams.
Several come to mind without having to thin too hard..(which is always painful).

[cmw1] 13/9/2018 15:34

The wildebeest have panicked. They don’t know why they are running but running blindly they are. Price back to where it was before Serra, before Keraben, before Saloni (€65-70m extra ebitda). And after positive like for like sales confirmed on Monday. What a buying opportunity!

[bouleversee] 12/9/2018 16:09

Do you suppose VCP will ever start paying a dividend. I was contemplating buying a holding in my ISA in addition to the relatively large one I have certificated. However, with no yield to compensate for any future capital loss, which couldn't be offset against tax, I'm sitting on my hands.

[gargleblaster] 07/9/2018 09:18

Good point fastbuck - bit of a bounce today so far.

[alphabeta4] 06/9/2018 14:50

Yes - very strange. There's certainly some volume going through and perhaps not the buyers to mop up given the placing and director share sale.
Fundamentals should offer support - hopefully it will do what it did in March, made some decent money out of that.

[fastbuck] 06/9/2018 11:08

I guess those shares are being acquired from a seller who may still be looking to sell more, hence slide in share price Guess the RNS will confirm in time.

[gargleblaster] 06/9/2018 10:41

Although I find share purchase/sale RNS's confusing at the best of times, my reading is that Invesco have topped up their holdings and Spruce Partnership have taken a 5% stake - which rather begs the question of why this two day tumble has happened?

[alphabeta4] 04/9/2018 11:32

Weak UK PMI figures? Market seems to struggle to grasp this is an international company at times.

[samenic] 04/9/2018 10:15

Any reason for the sell off ?Guess l've missed something.

[castleford tiger] 29/8/2018 18:28

Indeed bouleversee....you are quite right
We got 5 for 1 in the split.

In the old days I held over 90,000 costing 100k
today after 270,000 pounds back I would have had 450k shares worth 3.8 million.

Clearly I don't as I sold on the way up many of them.
Only one that comes close is DART group that I bought at 16p and today they are 985p so a 60 bagger.
Again would have netted me over 10m if I held them all.

Happy days
tiger

[topvest] 29/8/2018 17:56

Well done guys for sticking with it. You have probably had some good fortune here in the early days as Victoria Plc was a bit of an average company until new management took over. I suspect this has turned out beyond your wildest dreams....but still more to come I think. This is going to be a large cap company.

[bouleversee] 29/8/2018 15:02

I think you mean multiplied, Tiger. I started off with 1490 in Jan. '06, at a cost of just short of £3k. The special div. in July 2014 paid me £4370 so the shares cost me nothing. The 5 for 1 share split of Sept. 2016 means I now have 7450 shares, currently worth just short of £63k. No dividends since that special, of course, but I'm not complaining! Makes up for some of the horrendous losses I have had, some of which are still paper so might possibly recover a bit.