Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[nivison] 26/4/2018 17:24

should read Invesco.

[nivison] 26/4/2018 17:23

Invest increased shareholding again, now up to 16%

[gargleblaster] 23/4/2018 19:05

I have bought in here. It is a breath of fresh air to hear management talking actively about their desire to benefit shareholders - although of course that's what it all should be all about - but usually isn't! I also like the fact the incentive scheme only benefits member/staff if the share price goes up by more than 20% p.a. I would happily settle for 20% p.a., but their implication is that they should obtain this and more. Good to see Invesco steadily accumulating and management having considerable stakes in the business. I agree reubencash - could look cheap in two years time.

[tradejunkie2] 06/4/2018 21:10

P/E of 56 !!!!

[gabrieloak] 05/4/2018 11:30

Berenberg buy target reiterates to 950p

[bouleversee] 04/4/2018 22:51

Many thanks, gabrieloak. Will have a look.

[gabrieloak] 04/4/2018 22:37

As requested B

hxxps://www.thefurnishingreport.com/index.php/news

[gabrieloak] 04/4/2018 21:06

Reading back over the furnishing report news (not logged on for a few months)...I had missed the news on Headlam seeing UK weakness and European flooring imports being strong...

I think the read across from Headlam (along with Carpetright irritating comments on market conditions as a poor retailer) explains the recent weakness in share price...however:


(This morning) Geoff Wilding, Executive Chairman, commented:

"We are now seeing the clear benefits of our strategy to develop a broadly based, resilient flooring business, where operational and manufacturing synergies lower costs, whilst also providing a robust platform for organic and acquisitive growth. This is in no small part due to the excellence of our wider senior management teams who continue to drive the business and create opportunities to grow market share while maintaining margins.

The Board is encouraged by 2018 trading to date. Together with progress on ongoing internal initiatives to deliver synergies and revenue growth, and the very attractive acquisition prospects already identified, the Board is confident it will deliver another year of significant, earnings-accretive growth in the 2018/19 financial year."

Board is encouraged by trading so far in 2018!

What is not to like...?

GO

[gabrieloak] 04/4/2018 14:46

interesting logic AB...thanks

[alphabeta4] 04/4/2018 11:21

FWIW I've kept hold of my 27/3 purchase today. I think there is an acquisition or two imminent. My thinking is:

1. From today's statement: 'Additionally, the Board of Victoria has invested a significant amount of management focus during the past year identifying additional suitable acquisition opportunities. Shareholders should anticipate further acquisition-led growth focused on Europe.' Later they talk about 'very attractive acquisition ops already identified'. This gives a clue IMHO that they are fairly well advanced.
2. Around the last acquisition 15/11 they said they kept back £21m for more acquisitions and there is now circa 5 months extra cash, helped by the Karaben and Ceramiche acquisitions.
3. Four acquisitions were completed last year, from Feb there was a gap of 8 months and then two in quick succession. If there was one within the next month that would be around a 6 month gap.

I expect there is currently c£50m cash to play with, on a pe of 10 this would add c9% to forward earnings, or about 70p on the current share price. GLA

[bouleversee] 04/4/2018 10:14

Very reassuring. About the only bright spot at the moment.

[nivison] 04/4/2018 09:10

Very positive trading update. More acquisitions planned and performing ahead of expectations. About as good as I hoped for. Excellent new website too.

[gabrieloak] 04/4/2018 09:05

B...it’s out...what do you think?

[bouleversee] 31/3/2018 22:27

Mnny thanks. Let's hope it will be equally positive this year.

[gabrieloak] 31/3/2018 22:13

If you note...I was explaining what a tree shake was...I did not suggest it had happened or that Invesco caused it.

I think a fully intentional tree shake is unlikely but it cannot be ruled out.

This was what came out last year on April 11th (trading update):

11 April 2017

For Immediate Release

Victoria PLC

('Victoria,' the 'Company,' or the 'Group')

Positive Full Year Trading Update

Trading Ahead of Market Expectations

Victoria PLC, (LSE: VCP) the international designers, manufacturers and distributors of innovative flooring, provides the following positive trading update. The Board is pleased to announce that the Group's underlying profits before tax will be comfortably ahead of current consensus market expectations for the financial year ending 1 April 2017.

etc

GO

[bouleversee] 30/3/2018 11:47

Gabrieloak -

Thanks for that. Do you mean by shorting? Are you suggesting that Invesco would tree shake? Are the results out on April 10?

[countryman5] 30/3/2018 11:06

I assume that the two largest shareholders control the company. Are they talking to each other? Do they have an agenda?

[gabrieloak] 29/3/2018 17:25

Tree shake: Pushing the price lower to ignite fear, compound that fear and drive the price lower...which in turn drives the price lower still...the cynic says that this is a classic technique to loose shares from the hands of unwitting investors who sell in a panic to those who know / are betting (normally market participants like market makers) that there is nothing wrong and that the company is round the corner going to be announcing that all is well! (usually on 10th April)...

This does happen (normally on a much smaller basis) though in this case it would take some serious engineering and there was also a buyer out there mopping up.

GO

[bouleversee] 29/3/2018 16:37

OK. I only rec'd the alert this afternoon. Could you please explain exactly what is meant by the expression "tree shake" in this context.

[nivison] 29/3/2018 16:06

Invesco still buying and they reached and or crossed the 15% level yesterday (Wed). There was a very large volume yesterday and now we know who was mopping up all the sells. Almost looked like a tree shake...

[bouleversee] 29/3/2018 15:42

Invesco have just added 0.75% to their holding and now hold l5% which may explain today's rise.

[gabrieloak] 29/3/2018 14:15

So far so good on your call....

[alphabeta4] 27/3/2018 09:42

Just added - this fall is way overblown IMHO and was too good to miss. My thinking is:

1) We've had a trading update on 25/1 saying 'Strong trading in the (important) December quarter', what are people expecting to have happened in two months after?? I would think it's fair to say lots of people buy their carpet in the January sales, most of the UK revenue has been banked already.
2) On the potential Carpetright issue people are forgetting that VCP has been becoming an increasingly non-UK business. Over the last year by my calculations the acquisitions (which are all non-UK) will add c£175m to 2019 revenue which is forecast at £539m. In the 2017 accounts 27% of revenue was already Australia. Comfortably over half the revenue is now non-UK and we know European economic growth has been accelerating of late, with buoyant consumer confidence.
3) As others have touched on CPR's problems have been longstanding and company specific. They have been losing trade to competitors and if they are to go I would expect the business to just go elsewhere.
4) The RSI is down at levels last seen in the days after the EU referendum (which turned out to be the best buying opportunity of the last two years - each situation is different but there price rebounded over 50% within two months)!