Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 27/7/2016 10:38

Cantor;

Following these better than expected results, which fundamentally endorse the success of the company’s strategy, we are upgrading our FY17 pre-tax profit forecasts by 8% to £27.0m. Looking ahead, the company should benefit from better buying terms from suppliers and cost savings in logistics, which is a particular focus of management in FY17. It will also seek earnings enhancing acquisitions as over the last three years. It has made an encouraging start to the current year, including in the most recent weeks subsequent to the ‘Brexit’ vote. The stock has declined by 30% since its high in April and, in our view, is significantly oversold on the basis of these results and future prospects. It is now valued at just 10.8x our revised FY17 earnings forecasts. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and our TP of 1750p.

[wendydc] 27/7/2016 08:55

Outlook bright to building on a strong FY2016.

Cantor Fitzgerald have stated that “following these better than expected results, which fundamentally endorse the success of the company’s strategy, we are upgrading our FY17 pre-tax profit forecasts by 8% to £27.0m”.

They have reiterated their Buy recommendation and their TP of 1750p.

[1boston] 27/7/2016 08:53

Re investors chronicle, old news and yesterday's announcement shows how wrong it was then and now

[wendydc] 27/7/2016 07:04

I don't know who wrote this old article but that's his credibility shot (and his bank account if he really did short the shares!). Victoria has delivered extraordinary earnings (again) and, best of all, the net cash flow matches declared profits of £18.2 million, which means the profits are real, not just on paper.

[luckymouse] 26/7/2016 23:48

Its dyno of course testing if the ground is soft or hard

[extrader] 26/7/2016 18:33

Hi all,

This may give some background into Wilding's interest in 'further group-level M & A' :


hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/16427/victoria-plc-a-carpet-maker-overdue-for-a-shagging

He seems to be a remarkably 'effective' turnaround expert. As an aside, his trenchant post Brexit outlook comments make amusing reading. Not in itself a reason to buy the shares , of course !

NAI, DYOR etc etc

ATB

[dadedidodu] 26/7/2016 18:22

It's a wonder then that there aren't more competitors out there, or why management at the five companies acquired by Victoria were happy to sell out for an average of 4.5 times cash profits. In response to the latter, it may be due to the fact that the operating margin in the last year of solo trading for Westex, Abingdon and Whitestone Weavers was between 24 and 52 per cent higher than the average of the four previous years. In Interfloor's case, 2015's operating margin of 11 per cent was three times the average of the previous four years.

That's a start, but highlights a key challenge for the group. All of the firms acquired have been bought for the quality of their management, who have all agreed to lock-ins of three to five years. For now, these businesses have been granted operational autonomy, before "later getting together and thinking how they can start to improve their results", in Mr Anton's words. Mr Wilding also says he has little to do with each subsidiaries' operations, and is instead focused on further group-level M&A.

[rotrader] 26/7/2016 18:05

We get rid of dynaroo then dadedidodu turns up, and he couldn't even find anything up to date to deramp

[luckymouse] 26/7/2016 17:28

dadedidodu - of course the IC has so many successes with their tips (kiss of death usually lol) - an update upon todays results would be more current at least

[dadedidodu] 26/7/2016 16:09

Not happy reading

[a2584728] 26/7/2016 12:24

£15. Apologies all

[wendydc] 26/7/2016 12:06

Cantors say Buy!

"Victoria (BUY) - Final results beat our expectations
VCP LN (1122p, TP 1750p), Market Cap: £202m
(Corporate Stock)

Our View: Following these better than expected results, which fundamentally endorse the success of the company’s strategy, we are upgrading our FY17 pre-tax profit forecasts by 8% to £27.0m. Looking ahead, the company should benefit from better buying terms from suppliers and cost savings in logistics, which is a particular focus of management in FY17. It will also seek earnings enhancing acquisitions as over the last three years. It has made an encouraging start to the current year, including in the most recent weeks subsequent to the ‘Brexit’ vote. The stock has declined by 30% since its high in April and, in our view, is significantly oversold on the basis of these results and future prospects. It is now valued at just 9.9x our revised FY17 earnings forecasts. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and our TP of 1750p.

• Final results were better than expected – Pre-tax profits in the year to end of March more than doubled to £18.2m vs. CFE Research £16.8m, 8% above our forecast, with diluted earnings increasing by 56% to 81.8p on sales of £255m. UK operating profits increased to £18.2m (CFE Research: £16.3m) from £9.2m on sales more than doubling to £197m helped by underlying gross margins +227bps and cost synergies. In Australia, operating profits also came in well above expectations, £5.0m vs. CFE Research £4.5m despite a 10% decline in A$ helped by strong organic growth of 15.3%. Encouragingly, the FY16 acquisitions, Quest and Interfloor were reported to have contributed PBT of £2.0m and £6.0m respectively. Exceptionals and non-underlying charges, which totalled £4.4m, mainly consisted of the amortization of intangibles and acquisition and disposal related costs. Net debt (excluding finance leases) was £60m, in line with our expectations and is forecast to decline to £40m by March 2017, which equates to only c.1x EBITDA. The company has encouragingly seen a strong start to FY17.

• Forecasts upgraded – Following these results, we are upgrading our FY17 pre-tax profit forecasts to £27.0m from £25.0m taking EPS up by 7% to 113.3p from 105.5p. We are also making similar upward revisions to our subsequent year forecasts.

• Prospects remain bright – The company, in our view, is capable of growing earnings per share by between 15% and 20% pa over the next three years. It will continue to seek earnings enhancing acquisitions. In addition, it should start to benefit from synergies with particular focus on reorganizing logistics within the group. The objective is to improve EBITDA margins from 12% to 14% and use scale to increase sales not only to the dominant independent sector but also to the multiples and the trade.

• Stock looks significantly undervalued – The stock has declined by 30% from its April highs and is back to the same levels of a year ago even though there has been a number of upgrades in the last year, including a 10% upgrade to earnings following the April end of year trading update. It continues to be undervalued both relative to peers, in our view, and on the basis of our earnings growth forecasts of 15% to 20% pa, at 9.9x our revised FY17 earnings forecasts."

[luckymouse] 26/7/2016 10:32

amazing results - wonder if that gap above will fill

[luckymouse] 26/7/2016 10:29

amazing results - wonder if that gap above will fill

[rotrader] 26/7/2016 10:21

A2584728 - We will take a lot of notice of you. Couldn't even be bothered to compose a decent screen name ;)

[a2584728] 26/7/2016 09:47

15p in three weeks I think.

[blondeamon] 26/7/2016 09:11

Bargain under 14£, I'm in this morning!

[1boston] 26/7/2016 09:04

Wow - even better than expected
Profit way above expectations at £18.2million.
Debt way down. Only 1.85x ebitda
Fantastic cash generation: £17.2 million net free cash flow.
EPS 84.39p
Looking good for FY17
As I say, Wow!

[wendydc] 26/7/2016 09:04

"Victoria Plc* Got It Covered", says analyst at Whitman Howard...

WHITMAN HOWARD RECOMMENDATION:
Rating: BUY
Price Target: 1884p
Upside/Downside: 70.1%
Share Price: 1108p
Market Cap: £201m

"Today’s final results reveal a company meeting or exceeding all of its KPIs. This is a significant achievement given the pace of acquisition-led growth and is a testament to the strength- in-depth of the management team. Victoria has commenced an important year for its development in good shape, particularly from a balance sheet perspective. We share the company’s view that the Referendum result poses few problems. Having lost ground since the vote, the share price should now regain its momentum."

[rotrader] 26/7/2016 08:42

UK

The ludicrous over-reaction to the outcome of the EU referendum complete with hyper-ventilating commentators and hysterical luvvie wittering has become more balanced recently. Although there will inevitably be further ups and downs over the months ahead, I expect the UK's decision to leave the EU to be positive for the Group's competitiveness in the foreseeable future.

G Wilding

These are some of the best comments I have heard, post Brexit.
Im really getting to like this guy.

Where have the doom merchants disappeared to ?

[nfs] 26/7/2016 08:31

28eps underlying in h1 so 56p in h2,no seasonalityUpgrades on the way for this year I think