Vertu Motors Share Discussion Threads

[clive7878] 31/10/2022 20:35

VTU would be pocket money money to an American buy out.

[microscope] 31/10/2022 16:53

Yeah better than blackhorse's post appeared to suggest, but pretty irrelevant to us.As so often recently, VTU perked up in the afternoon. Infact so often, I'm beginning to believe it's not a coincidence. Another clear indication of possible American interest.

[clive7878] 29/10/2022 20:16

The Volkswagen Group's sales revenue in 2022 is expected to be 8% to 13% higher than in the previous year, and that of the Passenger Cars Division 5% to 10% higher. In terms of operating margin the Group continues to expect to come in at the upper end of the corridor of 7 to 8,5%. Reported net cash flow is expected to remain at the same level as in 2021. In 2022, net liquidity in the Automotive Division is further anticipated to be up to 15% higher than the prior-year figure, before Porsche IPO proceeds.

Sounds good to me, - the word "higher" is mentioned several times - especially as the report earlier says "in difficult times"

As per VTU - a very solid well run company with good management, where the the gloom and doom of the market as a whole and which is very much accounted for in with the share prices - probably too much accounted for in with the share price now investors believe it over done - and may not prove to be as bad as the share price and market is forecasting. That is why the share price has risen last week cause a number of investors believe the down turn from 75p to 40p was over done and why now the share price stands at 44.8p. Lets see if last week was just a blip.

Did we miss that a million shares were bought in one day in 50k lots ?
That does not look like a Company going down the pan, even if the Bank of England raises the base rate next Friday to 3.25% and just before Christmas to 4.25%.

[rabiddog] 28/10/2022 13:45

VW produces solid results…not that it greatly affects VTU lol

[blackhorse23] 28/10/2022 10:15

VW missed revenues target

[microscope] 27/10/2022 12:37

Basically everything I've said for the last month or so, hunter and/or hunted?Interesting that major holders would like 100p. US predators might get close to that, but even I doubt in this market that's realistic, but with an NTAV of 70p plus and forward order book bulging, a bid would have to be a very substantial premium to the current share price.A large acquisition? Yes I understand that too - would enable the company to grow successfully. Debt (especially secured as would be the case here with a massive property portfolio), is a good thing when it enables expansion - and a profitable acquisition would of course see EPS go even higher than currently (and p/e even lower). The balance sheet as we all know is superb, and it's these companies that win out in any recession. (I think one more rate rise should be enough for now, given the very mild autumn Europe is enjoying).Exciting times for investors here.

[clive7878] 27/10/2022 10:11

Profits in any company is all to do with good management & being well run & we have both with VTU. This applies even in bad times when there is an element of gloom & doom in the market.

Enter in google - Simply Wall VTU

[buffalobillnuts] 27/10/2022 08:55

Makes you wonder what this person/company/brokerage agender is?

[sunshine today] 27/10/2022 07:50

Let’s look at what we just listened to.

Base rate hitting 5% = mortgages of 7%

Your company wanting to be flash, and enter the swap market ( car dealer mentality).

Gearing up on your property assets

This is all before the consumer gets hammered over the next two years.

[dan_the_epic] 27/10/2022 07:34

Fantastic observation Simpson, exciting this should be back on its way to 60p

INCHCAPE upgrading guidance today

The good news just keeps on rolling

[dangersimpson2] 26/10/2022 23:03

Robert Forrester talking about Vertu considering swaps to reduce interest rate volatility:

Why does a cash-rich company that effectively gets interest-free stocking loans from the OEMs need swaps for? Suggests that a big acquisition is being negotiated.

It also explains why the share buyback has been extended but no shares have been bought.

A debt-funded acquisition should be earnings-enhancing right off the bat, with much more to come as Vertu roll out their sector-leading IT systems to any acquired sites. Plus, the extra buying scale and market data they gain.

In the H1 results, they mention that they would consider debt secured against their freehold property. This would give them a significant amount of additional firepower, perhaps up to £150m when you include their existing cash. So an amount comparable to their own market cap! No listed companies look within range apart from Motorpoint which looks massively overvalued and wouldn't be a good fit anyway. So anything they buy will be private.

With a forward P/E of 5 on the existing business, then you can see why the market is perking up, perhaps anticipating the same hunch as me.

In some ways, it would be better if Vertu was the prey rather than the predator. However, in the current market no industry players will be willing to put up the 100p+ that would be acceptable to larger shareholders and on par with the premium to TBV that the other motor dealers have been going for. Perhaps US Private Equity could be tempted, given that they could fund it almost completely with debt secured against Vertu's own assets. However, again the challenge is getting a premium larger shareholders would accept.

However, Vertu can be the prey and the predator - it could secure long-term debt against its property portfolio and then buy back all of its own shares (if the price didn't move in response to them buying in the market). Even if they can't severely reduce the share count, every share bought back below NTAV/share increases that NTAV/share.

Any acquisition, therefore, has to stack up well compared to an aggressive buyback of £50m+. So the price of any purchase will be key to adding the maximum shareholder value. Hopefully, the current economic conditions have created some keen private sellers to take advantage of.

[clive7878] 26/10/2022 19:01

microscope - Where is Sunshine now, wondering why the price has not fallen ?

I agree with you that the share price had to break out of its current range,
as the MM could not hold it down for ever, with which looks like someone is
accumulating.

[microscope] 26/10/2022 17:42

And there you go. As soon as 42.95 couldn't be held any longer, a sharp spike.Over coming weeks and months, I think a lot could happen here, pretty much all of it positive.

[microscope] 26/10/2022 08:55

Re my post of a few days ago, 42.95 magically reappears on the offer again this morning.It's pretty obvious imho that there's someone accumulating as much as they can in the open market with that as their top price.At some point that price will be exceeded, I expect, as was hinted at yesterday, and then we could easily get a bid at any time in the following period.And still the buyback hasn't started, a pretty clear indicator that something is afoot. Whether we also make an acquisition meantime remains a possibility too of course. Definitely looks like substantial activity is in the offing here.....

[purplepelmets] 26/10/2022 06:00

It's all about the debt, Dan

[microscope] 25/10/2022 23:30

Yes Clive, clearly someone accumulating.It's possible of course also that the recent rapid falls in many stocks has, just for example, caught a poorly run AIM fund on the hop, and they're now having to sell other stocks to balance their books, and there's been a forced seller of VTU. I've seen it many times on AIM.That could have been holding the price back through no fault of performance of VTU.The business is in fine shape, so I have no worries on that score. And I'm no fan of Sunak/Hunt but they'll bring more stability and the long warm autumn in Europe means gas supplies won't be the crisis many imagined (gas prices tumbled in the last week).You can't buy many Porsches for three grand! :)Infact the best time to buy is often when others are fretting.

[clive7878] 25/10/2022 22:19

With a million shares bought in 50k lots in one day last week, buys of late are exceeding sells, and with a rising share price, and with Simply Wall havivg a price target of 60p with orofits of £44.2m.
Is sunshine the only disbeliever around?
Start praying if you want to buy at 30-35p a share.

[sunshine today] 25/10/2022 13:03

I don’t short shares

The competition updated this morning, after an initial mark up, the stock has now fallen back for a tiny rise.

My point being, some here thought it was good, however the mark up just bought in sellers.

This is what investors here are up against.

[m_kerr] 25/10/2022 12:44

crazy to talk about shorting this. each share is backed up by at least 67p (likely far more) of net book property, and no financial debt. no real pension issues either. there's a very long list of more obvious targets to short.

[microscope] 25/10/2022 09:18

Decided best to ignore sunshine.

It should be obvious to all by now he or she has a beef against this company.

As others have correctly pointed out, this individual should be posting on virtually every company in the UK.

We only have their denial regards shorting, and so far sunny's word comes across imho as erratic at best.

Every time VTU's balance sheet is brought up the subject is changed! A debate sunny knows can only lose.

A classic advfn troll imho who feasts on oxygen from others.

Incidentally, if I've learnt one thing very recently, it is that blue posters sometimes manage to have more than one blue account, (plus of course a host of other usernames).

Israeli shipping, and other 'Joules', more sunny's thing.

Lol.

I would add one CRUCIAL thing though, if any of you saw this post from Sunny and thought PDG said this, I hope you were not tricked into selling VTU today.....


"sunshine Today25 Oct '22 - 07:10 - 2389 of 2402
0 0 0
Pendragon PLC PENDRAGON PLC INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT


Points of note

New car margins through the roof as the dealers have had the upper hand.

Margins clearly fall by 30% plus going forward. More when recession hits.

Margins and volume is falling like a stone in the second hand market.

Forget the past , look outwards and note the world of near free debt is over."



WHAT PDG ACTUALLY SAID:

"Outlook

We are pleased with the performance in Q3 FY22 and remain confident in delivering progress towards our long term goals. While we continue to expect both new and used vehicle supply shortfalls for the last quarter of FY22 and into 2023, the new car order bank remains well above historic normal levels at over 20,000 at the end of September. The economic backdrop remains challenging, however we continue to expect to deliver group underlying profit before tax in line with Board expectations for the current financial year."

And don't forget, VTU; TNAV 70p+, buyback pending, yield 4pc, trading ahead of expectations, p/e about 5; order book many months ahead, possible corporate activity imminent.

[sunshine today] 25/10/2022 08:12

I do accept you could receive an approach

But on the other hand you could pay way over for some rubbish

[sunshine today] 25/10/2022 08:10

As I said even if your correct you require others to buy your companies shares.

They might if you get a broker note that shows higher profits next year and the year after.

The few buyers around need a fantastic story to buy,ANY STOCK, the chart here, and todays update from the competition don’t point to this being on anyones list.

[sunshine today] 25/10/2022 08:03

The PE of 5 is an illusion if as I believe, profits slump next year.

Asset values go the same way.

The era of near free debt that your basing your assumptions on has finished.