Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[big7ime] 06/2/2018 18:18

If you noticed, a lot of stocks were wiped down in the last minute or two or on closing auction
Whether this was caused by computer selling or the fact the Dow was at the low at 4.30

I'd bet the Dow ends much higher at their close so once again we fall behind
It's why our indices are not keeping up with the rest of the world esp the U.S

I have realised this for many yrs, it is to some extent proved by the performance of a few funds I own, where the US have outperformed by a mile

We as a country don't support our businesses and do not regard business people (entrepreneurs) in the same way as professionals in contrast to in the States
I don't think our heads of companies are inferior to stateside counterparts
I believe it is a problem in government and to whit the country as a whole

20k wiped from my pfolio in the last minute I'm sure won't be rectified at the opening tomorrow
It's a case of ever diminishing returns if you leave all your. Money in the uk
My advice to young people, invest internationally. It is the norm to be a bad time with regard exchange rates etc
My foreign investments have outperformed my uk by a factor of 2.6 the past 10yrs

[apad] 06/2/2018 18:16

I am using the term chaos as a branch of mathematical theory - a noun, not an adjective of despair.

Nearly all nontrivial real-world systems are non-linear dynamical systems. Some produce predictable behaviour and some do not.

Chaos describes non-linear dynamical systems that have a sensitive dependence on initial conditions.
Chaotic systems are always deterministic and may be very simple, yet they produce completely unpredictable behaviour. Some can be stable for a long time and then go suddenly haywire.

Chaotic systems do have patterns and shapes - they are not random - so for a short term you 'might' be successful at predicting the weather (with a following wind:-) but it will certainly and regularly catch you out.

Pedantically yours,
apad

[melton john] 06/2/2018 17:38

Exactly Red, positive feedback= bad for stabilty.

[melton john] 06/2/2018 17:36

An engineer called Harry Nyquist created the theory for stabilising unstable systems. Whether a control system or an electronic amplifier, a tendency for oscillation is caused by positive feedback which adds to the input of the system and it then becomes self sustaining. Negative feedback which subtracts from the input signal can be used to ensure stability. George Soros clearly knew this when he kept selling the pound short to frustrate the UK government plans to stabiise exchange rates with the ill fated ERM. Sensing money to be made others joined in until the government capitulated.

The city needs instability to make money, when it gets quiet something will be thrown in to create a stir. At which point some will sell their early investments for a song for the funds to buy cheaply and sell on at a profit.

[redartbmud] 06/2/2018 17:20

tlatsatt

Algos are set up to follow a trend. They buy on the uptick, as well as selling on the downtick. It just depends on how/where they set the trigger.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 06/2/2018 17:09

Will the algos on the mega caps kick in when the price is heading up is my question.
Tiny long on apple. Gives me something to do. :)

[redartbmud] 06/2/2018 16:58

I see the root cause of the problem being machine based trading. Lock an algorithm into the box and let it fly. Once a trigger is hit, the machines generate multiple trades that further exacerbate the situation. There isn't always a rational explanation for the original movement that creates the domino.

red

[janeann] 06/2/2018 16:51

well it clearly is chaotic - but its quite frightening that it is so - after all businesses and lives and economies depend on it.

anyway here to play another day. Beginning to think one should just find a very few decent stocks and stick to that. Goes against all the advice of diversification etc etc - .

Overall down 1% on the year to date. having been up about 5%.

[apad] 06/2/2018 16:37

I don't think it's a rule-based system, janeann.
I think it is chaotic.
There are underlying patterns in the weather - but you can't predict it.
That's a decent enough simile for a market.
apad

[redartbmud] 06/2/2018 16:33

janeann

"Days like today make me think it is all a big game and we are playing by someones rules - so we don't know what they are?"

I am firmly in your camp on that one.

red

[janeann] 06/2/2018 16:20

well your post apad begs a question.

Days like today make me think it is all a big game and we are playing by someones rules - so we don't know what they are?

AMS and LTG both confirm that to me.

WTI - what a stunning performance today (well done matjos if it was yours) made nearly 30% in 2 days - thank you)

[mattjos] 06/2/2018 15:52

as you observed APAD .. Weathering the storm well thus far :-)

[apad] 06/2/2018 15:39

Comparison average is -4.5%. Three people in positive territory.

apad

[valhamos] 06/2/2018 15:10

A quick reversal on the Dow - but then the same happened yesterday at the same time then went on to plunge back down.

Had a few DPLM and XPP earlier.

[janeann] 06/2/2018 15:06

well not really apad; I have been trying to add and then bought some yesterday - but yes well pleased with today. That it took so long to fill the order yet I could get an online quote to sell makes me think someone was accumulating this morning.

Now when is abc going to go down to 11 quid?

[apad] 06/2/2018 14:51

Well timed, j.
"ams - order finally dealt at 283.5"
apad

[apad] 06/2/2018 14:49

Notayesman

"At this stage we wait to see if this is a correction or something more. But the environment may already have changed even if it is the former. This is because things got ever more highly geared as the lack of volatility made people think that it was ever less likely to return. "

[apad] 06/2/2018 14:23

Yoodles futures down!

apad

[redartbmud] 06/2/2018 12:29

APAD

Gsk yes, I don't have a good track record of buying in advance of results, but this will be a waiting game for a few months. If you buy at the bottom it is pure luck, and you can try to buy on the upturn that can quickly reverse.

Hydrus

Trying to take advantage of the current weakness. It the tintins are anywhere near right, this will be a mild correction before more upside. Hopefully I can collect the dividends along the way.

Eyes closed, legs and fingers crossed. Uniform on, as usual.

red

ey

[big7ime] 06/2/2018 12:21

Thanks sero

[hydrus] 06/2/2018 11:35

Red your approach seems sensible to me. Who knows what the next day or two will bring. Perversely, it's quite exciting.

[lauders] 06/2/2018 11:20

That's because I hold SDX Apad. If I didn't it would be positive even in this market! Ho hum.... At least HOC wasn't as smashed as I thought it would be although they had a good go at the start of the session. Still plenty of time for it to be smashed again and the US isn't open yet!

[apad] 06/2/2018 11:17

SDX going nowhere on decent news.

GSK final tomorrow, red.
An initial markdown at first, when the tintins dust off their usual story, perhaps.

apad