Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 08/8/2017 08:32

The puppy has won a rosette - bet they put it on the balance sheet :-)

ROR has a new CEO from the waste disposal industry. Mmmmm not much synergy there. Had a quick look at their cash flow statement, which is not brilliant. However, there are no obvious problems this time around.

FFX buying CardOne.
"to broaden its offering and build a digital banking services company"
Raising about twice as much as is needed.

S&P still powering ahead.

apad

[petersinthemarket] 07/8/2017 21:44

Interesting dilemma A, #12942. I'm guessing you will get few practical responses for the simple reason that we all approach these things from different angles and most advice will not be relevant to others' situations. As a retiree with enough to live on, buying and selling for me is largely an intellectual exercise which I use to keep my brain stimulated. Don't mind the extra (paper) cash but not needed for immediate purposes so happy to accept a higher risk level. Nonetheless I don't easily give up hard won gains. As a general rule I only hold up to 10 shares (ie each will have cost roughly 10% of total pf purchase value) and I top slice when the closing value becomes considerably more than 10% of current pf value. Actually, the value and timing of any cut varies according to my guesstimate of the near term safe/ish future advance, but I still cut, or even sell out, at some point. But to show that I also have an irrational side, I admit that my large long term DIS holding is more similar to your two out-performers in that it is hugely out of proportion on all counts, the rational for this being my very low AvCost, so minimal risk, and also my huge confidence that it is going to pay me massive returns for some years yet. (I also trade these but I don't touch the main holding). In the end, I suppose we all have 'rules' and we all have 'rules' we choose to ignore. Perhaps in the final analysis it depends on whether a big loss due to an unexpected change of company prospects will be life changing for you. If not, you can afford to run your luck. But some people are obviously working stocks and shares in order to generate necessary money and will be keener to take occasional profits and I would encourage them to do that.
pete

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 07/8/2017 20:15

Very interesting point APAD..
Lots for you to consider i would say.
Dark quite room time.

[dan_the_epic] 07/8/2017 19:41

Thoughts on JPJ guys? I am sorely tempted. And yes, well aware of the 100 red flags, but think they are lesser significance now...

Results a week 2moro

Just realised this is so far from the valuegrowth investing criteria that please feel free to disregard!

[apad] 07/8/2017 19:38

FEVR and BOO are both up well over 400% on my book cost.

My notion that you don't punish success has led to a portfolio that is hugely biased to two companies, but that is also hugely profitable.

In one way I am pleased to have benefitted, in another way I am twitchy about being so committed.
It's a strange and contradictory place in which I find myself.

I wonder if there is a psychological pressure to reduce one's performance?

As private investors we have a huge advantage over fund managers that have to deploy large amounts of money.

So, the accepted wisdoms are a nonsense for us?

apad

[apad] 07/8/2017 19:17

Bought a few DPH as an atonement for selling it.

Up 5%.

The gold standard companies are admirable.

They are the sort of companies I buy in my daughters' ISAs.
You buy them and get on with life.

apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 07/8/2017 17:59

Sales people NEED incentive.. very odd thst purple bricks dont know this is the most vital part of their business.. no completions no business.

Saw a purplebricks sold bosrd earlier. They'll take more share im sure.... and once theyve sorted the psyment for completion they'll probably not just shake up the traditionsl estate agent but rightmove will be in trouble too.

At what point will people be happy to go direct to purplebricks to veiw available properties online...when PB have 10,20,30 percent of the market. Rightmove will looking and they wont be liking. They'll be losing lots of advertising spend at the tipping point.

Going to interesting to watch. Wish i bought some pb 6 months ago.

[apad] 07/8/2017 13:28

Well, my dumping of ROR and sticking with SPX will be tested this week.
I shall be biking in France!

My drayhorses are wearing their knickers outside their tights.

apad

[apad] 07/8/2017 13:03

Balanced comment on PURP

"Briefly, the bull case is that Purplebricks is a fast-growing business with the potential to disrupt the estate agent industry with a growing army of carefully selected, highly professional self-employed sales people. The company does not need the expense of high St. premises and the flat fee model hugely undercuts the traditional players allowing for explosive growth. Conversions from instruction to sale are currently running at an impressive 83% and the company’s reputation is second to none with uniformly complimentary comments on the independent review site TrustPilot.

The bear case is that the 83% conversion rate claimed is hugely exaggerated and that the real number is around 30%. The company’s sales force or LPEs (local property experts) are rewarded upfront by their share of the flat fee on instruction and, human nature being what it is, have little incentive to close a sale unlike traditional estate agents who are not paid unless a sale is completed. The TrustPilot reviews are sham and Purplebrick reviews on genuinely independent sites are mostly hostile.

I lean to the bear case and have shorted a small number of shares today but I am new to Purplebricks and intend to have a much closer look. I think that bulls and bears would both agree that the eventual success of Purplebricks depends hugely on the instruction to sale completion rate and the quality of service offered by the LPEs."

Don't hold, wouldn't hold.
apad

[big7ime] 07/8/2017 09:00

W7L aims to be the Boohoo of makeup,
Looked worth an opening punt so Bought the dip

[al101uk] 07/8/2017 08:56

Petersinthemarket,

This is a great non-techie investment view on crypto currency from Aswath Damodaran who is always worth a listen!



Really interesting talk in my view.

[big7ime] 07/8/2017 08:47

I might start "following" though ;)

[apad] 07/8/2017 08:14

"follower"
Wash your mouth out with soap & water, Big :-)

FFX price up!

apad

[apad] 07/8/2017 08:11

The HLMA technique:
"The CEO and management team of Cardios will continue to operate the business out of its current location."
apad

[big7ime] 07/8/2017 07:58

Nice piece in the Sunday Telegraph on IQE

Price/Cash set to multiply on ramp up of production this yr

Paul Scott has recently purchased too, I'm not a follower of Paul as a few if you here are but he has price tgt of 300-500pps

[dan_the_epic] 05/8/2017 17:54

Don't rate RHL personally; think broker forecasts going forward are too punchy as is

[petersinthemarket] 05/8/2017 17:31

>MJ #12911 - tks - I hadn't noticed that ''B'' symbol up there.
When I see that, I guess it makes a stock pickers choice even more difficult.
So many companies and scheme variants and all aiming to be the new number one.
Surely the vast majority of them must go down the plug hole at some time.
I'm curious, but not brave enough to even dangle a toe in yet.
Time will tell.
pete

[dan_the_epic] 05/8/2017 16:18

Anyone have thoughts on TMMG, SOM or HSW?

[11_percent] 05/8/2017 16:17

SDX.



______


Just because it is offshore, does not mean it is bad, as PW has implied.
There could be a real deal going on there.
Anyway, till the deal is done, it remains a risk.


“We don’t intend to put any (more) capital into it,” Welch said, describing South Ramadan as “a very-high cost, low-potential permit at the moment”.

-----

"The company is also planning to test the deeper oil-prone Cretaceous horizon at the field, where a working petroleum system was encountered."

This is a classic, from PW.............jam tomorrow.......no date.

_______


“In an ideal world we will drill two additional wells in the fourth quarter and then by the first quarter of 2018 we will have those two wells connected and that would give us a plateau rate of about 45 million to 50 million cubic feet per day,” Welch said.
Production start-up is still hoped for in the first quarter.

“In an ideal world....

If this happens, its good.
----------------------------------------

Please note, PW said he would update share holders on the results of the analysis of our Disouk well. He has not done this. I suspect this will never happen.


-----------------------------

SDX has disappeared from Malckys blog.

This serious news comes to us via Energy Egypt.......shakes head....

[hazl] 05/8/2017 10:24

Good post rjmahan agree.

[hazl] 05/8/2017 10:22

APAD interesting observation about numbers of employees in post 12922 and makes sense.

[apad] 05/8/2017 09:46

Comments on CLLN here, red:


hxxp://walbrockresearch.com/home/


Haven't read them, but the site is usually decent.

apad

[apad] 05/8/2017 07:29

I used to have revenue/employee in my spreadsheet, mod. I'm not sure why I dropped it.
I think the message was that large number of employees when a cyclical company is going off peak is not good news.

Good article on SDX, 11, I like everything being on land.

apad