Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 01/2/2021 10:15

On the Cenkos note I've just noticed they have the cash forecast at £33.3m for 2020 and £36.3m for 2021. They've actually come in at £35.5m so maybe 2021 forecast should be more like £38.5m?

They are scaled up and cashed up for the next stage of growth.

[rivaldo] 01/2/2021 10:10

Cheers.

I'm confident that VLG will continue to grow. There should certainly be lots of news flow to keep things bubbling over the coming weeks and months.

[discodave45] 01/2/2021 09:58

It's a free market.My choice and have sold up as don't trust the BOD, simples.Good luck to those holding.

[discodave45] 01/2/2021 09:56

They are burning cash at about £1m per month.

[simon gordon] 01/2/2021 09:55

Cenkos have issued a note. Cash adjusted 14x 2021. 2021 year end cash £36.3m.

They delivered on expectations.

I don't see the big issue with raising cash, they are in the business to grow and business changes and opportunities arise. Being agile and flexible is a positive not a negative.

Some China sales have moved into H1 2021 and they still met expectations.

I'd judge them more on the next trading update, it's far too early in the year to throw mud at them.

Slater going from 5% to 15% in the placing shows one of the best small cap investors in the London market having conviction in management, the business and future growth drivers.

[rivaldo] 01/2/2021 09:53

Agreed QS99. I'm happy to stay invested here for considerable upside.

N+1 Singer this morning presently have a 114p fair value target here.

Worth noting that they see a £35.5m cash pile at 31st December just gone - 32% of the current m/cap. They forecast 3.2p EPS for the current year, so if you strip out the cash that's a current year ex-cash P/E of around 18 or 19.

And that EPS forecast includes a conservative reduction in terms of forecast Chinese sales balanced out by increasing growth in VLG's other core markets and products.

When VLG eventually conclude any or all of their three mooted acquisitions, then the earnings-enhancing aspects will likely bring that P/E down substantially.

[discodave45] 01/2/2021 09:49

Ps Forgot, their ex business partners and major shareholder appears to be well informed too!.....better informed than pi's anyway.

[rivaldo] 01/2/2021 08:45

Shanklin, in that statement in the H1 results VLG may actually be talking about the "strong order book for H2" in general - completely separate to the comment about China.

It may be that the sentence is simply poorly worded, combining the Chinese H1 orders with the additional info about orders in general being strong.

Anyway....we'll never know for sure!

[shanklin] 01/2/2021 08:20

QS99,

Completely agree re H2 China orders, but they should have advised ASAP that they had inadvertantly been incorrect about this in the H1 results.

[qs99] 01/2/2021 08:20

Need those M&A elements feeding into the mixer IMO....icing on cake is the mouthwash, but lets see....

[farnesbarnes] 01/2/2021 08:17

I've been out of VLG since late November 20. I still watch closely but didn't appreciate the way the BOD claimed they were ok for capital, then took advantage of the early Nov spike to raise capital and cash out themselves. If the medium term earnings outlook improves, I might be interested again.

[qs99] 01/2/2021 08:13

it can have a strong order book, but may have been prevented from shipping for some reason? We know the container market has been pretty challenging?

As you say Shanklin, hopefully this clears the way for acquisitions to take place...DYOR

[rivaldo] 01/2/2021 07:16

Trading statement just out indicates that EBITDA will be ahead of expectations.

Cenkos' forecast for 2020 is £6m EBITDA, but VLG report that they'll achieve "not less than" £6m - double 2019's performance.

And that's without any further Chinese oral care shipments in H2, which are "due to resume in H1 2021", and with COVID-affected core product sales which should also return to growth this year.

Plus having "an order book ahead of the same time last year" bodes well.

[discodave45] 28/1/2021 13:40

Wonder if Dr Flynn has topped back up yet!?!.

[bountyhunter] 24/1/2021 22:15

And don't forget about the Cardiff trial...

"Venture Life therefore believes that the composition of its CPC-based mouthwashes is ‘unique and once published, will update the market with the results of the human (in-vivo) clinical study in partnership with Cardiff University in early 2021."

[discodave45] 22/1/2021 18:37

Should be a trading update next week IMO. As for acquisition news, who knows!.

[qs99] 22/1/2021 16:13

Yup, thanks Riv, just a shame VLG share price heading in the wrong direction!

Let's hope we get some news soon on trading, deals etc

[rivaldo] 20/1/2021 07:18

Good to see from APH's trading update this morning that Kelo-Cote continues to perform very well:

"Whilst top line revenue growth has been constrained overall, our Consumer Healthcare business has performed well given the market backdrop and we have seen some strong performances from a number of our brands, in particular Kelo-cote."

"Kelo-cote(TM) revenues were up 12% to GBP34.7m (2019: GBP31.0m)"

[rivaldo] 11/1/2021 11:17

Menawhile the price continues to bounce nicely.

[discodave45] 08/1/2021 15:57

In July 2018 they did a placing to fund the acquisition of Dentyl and to pay off some bonds and loan notes. They raised £17.5m and about £9.6m remained on the books until they purchased Pharmasource for Eur €6.5m (c £6m) this Jan - unless I've missed other acquisitions that the market weren't informed about then 18 months or so in between raising funds and making an acquisition is in my opinion nothing to shout about.The recent £34m fund raise should be followed by confirmation of an acquisition, not that it may not happen or due diligence failed, and not in a few months time either. With interest rates and the cost of debt at all time lows wtf are they doing raising so much cash in the first place if they are not certain a deal can be done.Time will tell I suppose but as you can tell I'm not too happy ?

[rivaldo] 08/1/2021 15:32

Hi QS99, HNY to you too! I stopped working over Xmas/New Year a long time ago when I started doing this lark, which is much more pleasant and has far shorter hours....

Happy to hold VLG for the long-term - acquisitions will happen when they happen, and in the meantime VLG are trading very well anyway. The share price has roughly tripled in the last year, and imo there's still plenty of upside.

[discodave45] 08/1/2021 15:08

With only 60% production rate at their Italian site they need to pull their fingers out. Raising the funds IMO should be the last hurdle in securing any acquisitions.......if nothing by the time of the trading update this month then I'm out.