Velocys Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 29/9/2017 12:25

GG - VLS is an extremely risky punt and best avoided. At this juncture. Wait until a first major contract (like BA signing on the dotted line committing to buy the product in the future - not simply have a feasibility study going on). That would be the time to buy. And buy big into VLS. Sure - it could be 100% up overnight on such a major announcement but sustainable multi month trends rarely stop after 1 day (!) and one should still multi bag on the back of a major commercial revenue game changer. Only with far, far less risk when that moment arrives.

[gac141] 29/9/2017 11:54

See where we are in December..

[goodgrief] 29/9/2017 11:49

Well I do hope so, because if not the placing price is going to be atrocious!

[gac141] 29/9/2017 11:43

GoodGrief- Take it from me(If you wish) we are not... A lot of the wording has come from a cautious broker me thinks ....................and a bit of regulation too.

[goodgrief] 29/9/2017 11:38

gac, I do enjoy reading your contributions. But sorely gained experience has shown me to contemplate not only the rewards but also the risks. Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Plenty of AIM stocks have had their brief day in the sun and then sunk without trace.

When it comes down to interpreting the wording of a news release, then we know we're in a spot of bother.

[meijiman] 29/9/2017 11:36

If there is not much left in the UK maybe Susan didn't like working in Texas.
Did Lipski spend years achieving nothing ..I'm sure with hindsight so many things would have been done differently.

[gac141] 29/9/2017 11:22

EJ- I hear what you are saying but I have a very different view and I think understanding of the wording of the news release.

To answer MusardDJM

1) NRG are exiting the renewable fuels market. A US decision not based on any likes or dislike on VLS. This news was out in mid July. The fact that they are giving us their share for £0.00 shows this. They realise it was the only option to comply with their new strategy

2)Rins go up and down like Oil prices do. I am not concerned by this.

3) I fully expect the Key Milestone to be met at ENVIA and then the process of gaining RIN's can be achieved with accreditation in the next quarter (US Rules)


The sense I get from Velocys is that the pace of the business is a bit like a rolling stone at the moment and my take on this is that it may be gaining faster momentum than anyone expected.

Do not loose sight of the fact that we do have an operational reference site like no other in the world and BIOfuels etc is the next huge thing. We are at the forefront of this and my discussions with people in the US confirm that we are held in very high regard. The renewable fuels market will be very big indeed for us! The world is in touch with us over our significant achievement.

The Fund raise should be viewed as a very good thing..it shows we are having discussions with big (underlined) businesses who will be talking to us about 100's of Millions of dollars of funding and we need a balance sheet to stand up to that. The fact that this is earlier than I was expecting means these conversations must be happening earlier than expected too. Don't forget there are many ways to raise money without shareholder dilution.

I hope that my views are trusted and I have my own shareholding of 300,000 shares approximately in various accounts etc. I believe that the next few months will give us a raft of very good news indeed and completely justify my trust in David Pummell and his team.

This is not a ramp as you have seen recently but appreciate we all have our decisions to make.

[deutsch3] 29/9/2017 10:53

There are now plenty of new people stood around waiting for a piece of this cake who made no contribution to the ingredients. ( Partners - Consortium - etc) - These Master Bakers of ours who live it up in USA must be on drugs. However we shareholders do have a accommodation address in Oxford, to console ourselves, which for the new partners etc. who know no better , or don't care, will confuse with being at the University. Dear...dear!

[realfreeloader] 29/9/2017 10:09

Impairment of the loan of £0.7m was required; this estimate was based on the likelihood of passing the key capacity milestone during October 2017. £0.7m equates to approx $0.9m. At 30 June 2017 ENVIA had drawn $9,110,000. So the risk given to NOT achieving key capacity in October 2017 equates to 10%.

It's inconceivable that the BA partnership would have been announced without the partners visiting the ENVIA plant and reviewing the performance data in detail.

Another delay but after all this time not going to cave now and sell. Any hint of a disappointment seems to elicit an over reaction from the market. Also interesting to note that the CLN,s can't be automatically converted, I wasn't aware of this before.

Not a sruprise that NRG have exited as not part of the new consortium. I guess October will prove it either way.

[musarddjm] 29/9/2017 09:04

Three pieces of bad news for me in respect of Envia:1. NRG Energy exited the JV. This doesn't sound too promising.2. A less ambitious revenue forecast based on a revision of product and RIN pricing has been produced by the Company.3. A risk of termination of ENVIA's lease and ability to continue operations if the key capacity milestone is not reached in October 2017.

[gac141] 29/9/2017 08:50

To be fair I stand by my comments and most of it read pretty well. Sorry but I think that based on time that these results represent they have done a very good job turning the business around and have made good decisions on reducing cash outflow.

I look forward to seeing full production next month...

[goodgrief] 29/9/2017 08:41

"There is plenty probably not in the public domain to surface..Velocys has made a step change and the market is with it..."What's come to the surface isn't pretty!

[deutsch3] 27/9/2017 09:52

" I guess we will know more next year"

[visionon] 27/9/2017 09:22

hxxp://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2017/09/21/the-wild-green-yonder-british-airways-aims-to-fly-on-trash-again/

This is a good summary. Jim Lane makes more effort than the average journo these days ie does more than just parroting the press releases. Thanks Jim.

My calculations came out roughly the same. So either BA would take approx 50% of products or plant is smaller. I imagine the former because the plant owner would presumably prefer to spread risk, and have other customers.

I guess we will know more next year when they conclude initial feasibility.

I personally think airlines flying on drop in fuel from waste rather than specially grown crops is a better CSR statement.

[gac141] 25/9/2017 17:47

This is very interesting Visionon..Thank you!

[visionon] 25/9/2017 17:14

hxxps://www.transportenvironment.org/press/meps-place-limits-aviation-ets-exemption-and-put-airlines-emissions-reduction-path

More news of relevance to the UK jet fuel project, and indeed US projects also as US airlines fly into Europe.

[woolybanana] 25/9/2017 12:26

Why is Red Rock having trouble raising finance? They seem to have been trying for a couple of years with, apparently, no joy.

[gac141] 24/9/2017 19:56

There is plenty probably not in the public domain to surface..Velocys has made a step change and the market is with it...

[visionon] 24/9/2017 14:14

hxxp://resource.co/article/uk-facing-residual-waste-treatment-gap-until-2030-says-suez-report-12105

This is an interesting read and perhaps gives clues as to Suez involvement in partnership with VLS etc.

Note also the cost of building an EfW plant.

Currently west London boroughs are shipping MSW to a new Suez EfW facility at Avonmouth by train. Why not have a VLS plant in West London serving BA Heathrow with fuel instead. And arguably less controversial than an EfW when it comes to getting planning permission.

[visionon] 23/9/2017 20:27

fluky so what. The VLS website work over is focused on their offer combined with their technology partners. If a 3rd party wishes to licence then fine but the strategy has changed and the website reflects the change. Ditto removal of old presentations, many of which are out of date now. frankly I would prefer that VLS have a significant degree of control on all projects that their technology is involved in. No disrespect to Red Rock team, just my view in general based on watching ENVIA evolve.

next criticism ?

[gac141] 23/9/2017 18:04

Fluky Red Rock is still looking for funding....

You know what the current state is on ENVIA so why bang on about it.. It is all good and if you read the announcements you would know that. Find another share to short as you will be burnt with this one.

[fluky] 23/9/2017 17:42

What about Red Rock? This planned biomass to fuels plant with the Velocys FT process is not even mentioned in the new website. Still in the fund raising stage or ...

PS EJ: rest assured that I did my homework. Did you ask the company last month what the uptime of the Envia plant was?