Vebnet Share Discussion Threads

[dougdig] 13/6/2005 19:26

Most encouraging!

[kircatflorho] 13/6/2005 11:22

The upward share price movement is my only thought :-))

[arnoldlane] 10/6/2005 10:28

Nice announcement about a big deal with The Pru!

"The agreement is expected to contribute materially to turnover in the year to 30 June 2006."

Any thoughts?

al

[dougdig] 11/5/2005 11:13

Gosh things are quiet on this thread.....wonder if there are any other shareholders left hoping for a price upgrade to reflect the potential here - results to June 2005 should be interesting, I fancy....

[tuffbet] 02/3/2005 15:04

VBT now showing on ADVFN's "TOPLISTS" as a 52 week Chart Breakout

[tuffbet] 02/3/2005 14:34

See todays news re Liontrust increasing their stake in VBT - you can't say I didn't warn you in previous posts about some positive action here.

The interesting thing is of course that Liontrust are in the Financial Sector so they obviously are in a better position than most to understand what VBT are all about and how massive the prospects are. In time the herd will come to the same conclusion but Liontrust are smart operators and its no surprise to see them ahead of the game .

The shares are now bordering on Jessie Livermores's '200" see above so its looking like the price is about to move up to a completly different level after consolidating.

[tuffbet] 18/2/2005 14:43

I was doing some more research on VBT to see what if anything I could come up with to fill in any knowledge gaps ( the company keeps a fairly low press profile ) .

It transpires that at the start of the year the Sunday Herald ,(a Scottish paper and part of SMG) which I understand has a highly respected financial section ran an article on 2nd January 2005 headed ....


"New Faces ,New Challenges People to watch" and the CEO of Vebnet, Gerry O'Neill was highlighted.

Pen pictures were run on the Sunday Heralds 8 to watch and Gerry O was cited as

....."on track to achieve his goal of building his employee benefit company into a Global force in 2005 "

according to the writer ...."Edinburgh based Vebnet where investment Guru Sandy Nairn is a non executive director ,is expected to double its turnover to £2 milion in the 12 months to June 2005 "


With the announcement today that turnover was up 2.8 times on the equivalent 2003 half year Vebnet is quietly going about the business of fulfilling the CEO's aim ie a "Global force in 2005"

[tuffbet] 18/2/2005 10:59

Having asked few months ago for some assistance from chartists on ADVFN in reading the VBT chart and receiving none I have spent some considerable time on the subject since then.

Obviously with what one could term "limited experience" in serious chart reading I am not going to make too many claims about my ability for some considerable time yet, if indeed I ever do.

What however I and I suspect anyone else who can see the chart on the screen can detect is that VBT is poised for a Breakout Up and should therefore be appearing soon on ADVFN's Toplists under that heading.

Because the shares are hard to get a hold of in any size at all ( that should tell you something) it seems unlikely that it will be buying volume that is the catalyst for the move . I am only guessing here but I suspect VBT could get some good press over the next few weeks and once the price gets through 200p it should be off and running again (the MM will have to either move the price up to get weak holders to sell or move it sharply down to frighten out the same group )

I think it was the man generally regarded as one of the worlds greatest investors ie Jessie Livermore ,who said ...

' when a stock crosses 200 or 300 for the first time the price does not stop at the even figure but goes a good deal higher,so, if you buy it as soon as it crosses the line it is almost certain to show you a profit "

Now I know he could just as easily have used 100 as 200 so the figure itself is not relevant just the fact that a round hundred is a psychological threshold . I ask myself what credentials do I a lowly ADVFN user have to question anything the great man said but in the interests of fairness and realism I might be tempted to take the words " almost certain" out and replace them with something such as "likely" ( is that too mild?) .

On the subject of Livermore he also once said ....

"millions upon millions have been lost by men who bought stocks because they looked cheap or, sold them because they looked dear "

Keep that in mind when you look at the chart and read and analyse the fundamentals - how often did we read that Cairn Energy looked expensive at £3 , £5 , £7 and so on words written by those who simply didn't know enough to make such comments (although probably done with the west of intentions ) -what counted for Livermore was always what the tape and the supply/demand balance or as he used to call it " line of least resistance " was telling him .

He made his fortune by correctly assuming that if shares were easy to buy ,which means of course they would usually look cheap , he didn't want to pick up what others were happy to be rid of basic lgic which people seem to understand when it comes to buying cars ie they still won't buy a Rover when prices are slashed because although it looks cheap AT THAT POINT IN TIME , they have enough nous to appreciate that they will get a very vey poor price when it comes to selling it . The fact is of course there is a better argument in respect of buying and selling a Rover than there is for buying the average punters type of share (no dividends) because at least with the Rover before the bad news comes you have the daily utility value of the transport try going to ASDA on your share certificate ( if you can do it get in touch with me right away )

Sorry to be hard on Rover ,for the sake of their employees I do wish them well they were simply I thought, a reasonable analogy to use to get my point accross

As usual its only a wild guess but I think if Livermore was operating in todays UK market he might read the fact that it is very difficult to find VBT stock as a sure sign that he should be looking to buy.

Anyway as I wrote the other day on the DRS post as Elvis said to me recently 'do your own research man " - if its good enough for Elvis it should be good enough for you and me - thats the only advice I will ever give - listen to the man and make up your own mind.

Tempus edax rerum

[tuffbet] 23/11/2004 12:03

Chart breakout today on ADVFN'S Toplists - is there a hint here of good news to be announced at the AGM on the 30th ?

[tuffbet] 28/10/2004 17:34

where have all the chartists gone ?

[tuffbet] 26/10/2004 17:35

I have reason to believe that this could be one of the growth stocks of the next 5 years . That belief is largely based on fundamentals and business potential on which I hope to expand tomorrow ( sport takes over this evening).

I am asking for help from chartists because it is not an area in which I have any expertise but my experience and more importantly the experience of investors much more successful than I strongly suggests that good fundamental analysis combined with intelligent reading of charts is the most successful way of trading stocks.

If anyone with chart reading expertise is interested could I have your views on how the stock looks from a chartist point of view and why

[sol-38/413] 19/10/2004 21:28

Good shout, Hemispheric. How did you hear of that a week before the market?

[rambutan2] 15/10/2004 15:32

never heard of this one before but this aroused my interest...

[hemispheric] 12/10/2004 11:59

I hear that Vebnet Holdings Plc is about to be awarded a substantial contract by a major company. I would most certainly rate this stock a BUY. It is important to note that this announcement is imminent. FILL YER BOOTS!!! You have been told.

[wole] 09/3/2004 11:42

Interesting!

[tuffbet] 09/3/2004 08:59

The market is huge and the competition is not significant .
By the end of 2004 this could be on the radar of fund management groups who are looking for growth companies outwith technology -Vebnet are users of technology not manufacturers and traditionally its the users which turn out to be profitable.

I watched Cairn Energy grow but never bought the shares - I have a feeling this could be a similar success story and I won't be repeating my Cairn mistake .

[tuffbet] 02/3/2004 12:50

Anyone out there wanting to sell some stock ? please

[wole] 24/2/2004 12:02

RNS Number:7588V
Vebnet Holdings PLC
24 February 2004



VEBNET (HOLDINGS) PLC

Director's Share Purchase

The Company (an AIM-traded, Edinburgh-based provider of technology for employee
benefit solutions) was notified yesterday that, on that day, Dr A G M Nairn
(Deputy Chairman) had purchased 10,000 Ordinary Shares in the Company (0.12% of
the issued share capital) at 140p per share, taking his holding to 957,123
Ordinary Shares (11.35% of the issued share capital).

Enquiries:

Vebnet (Holdings) plc 0131-270 5500

Gerry O'Neill (Chief Executive Officer)
Stephen Thurlow (Finance Director)

Bankside Consultants Limited

CharlesPonsonby 020-7444 4166

[tuffbet] 16/2/2004 15:18

Well has a wee nip and an hour ot two to read some words of wisdom from the Masters helped me to shake of that desire for the price to drop back so I can buy some more ?

I see there have been one or two sales ,hardly surprising given todays start ,perhaps I should join them . Or what about not waitng for the price to drop back (which is the decision I took on Friday to my regret ,) and just buying more so I have a decent stake before the herd arrive .

Warren Buffett, widely regarded as the world's most successful investor, wrote ...

"I sought out Phil Fisher after reading his COMMON STOCKS AND UNCOMMON PROFITS AND OTHER WRITINGS. When I met him, I was as impressed by the man as by his ideas. A thorough understanding of the business, obtained by using Phil's techniques ....... enables one to make intelligent commitments."

The forward to the same book says ......

"Widely respected and admired, Philip Fisher is amongst the most influential investors of all time. His investment philosophies introduced almost 40 years ago, are not only studied and applied by today's finance professionals, but are also regarded by many as gospel. 'COMMON STOCKS AND UNCOMMON PROFITS AND OTHER WRITINGS' reveals these timeless philosophies.


Ok that seems to me to be a rather decent set of credentials , worth listening to ? make up your own mind but here is what Phil Fisher had to say in this book about when to sell growth stocks:-



"There is still one other argument investors sometimes use to separate themselves from the profits they would otherwise make. This one is the most ridiculous of all. It is that the stock they own has had a huge advance. Therefore, just because it has gone up, it has probably used up most of its potential. Consequently they should sell it and buy something that hasn't gone up yet. Outstanding companies, the only type which I believe the investor should buy, just don't function this way. How they do function might best be understood by considering the following somewhat fanciful analogy:

Suppose it is the day you were graduated from college. If you did not go to college, consider it to be the day of your high school graduation; from the standpoint of our example it will make no difference whatsoever.

Now suppose that on this day each of your male classmates had an urgent need of immediate cash. Each offered you the same deal. If you would give them a sum of money equivalent to ten times whatever they might earn during the first twelve months after they had gone to work, that classmate would for the balance of his life turn over to you one quarter of each year's earnings!

Finally let us suppose that, while you thought this was an excellent proposition, you only had spare cash on hand sufficient to make such a deal with three of your classmates.

At this point, your reasoning would closely resemble that of the investor using sound investment principles in selecting common stocks. You would immediately start analysing your classmates, not from the standpoint of how pleasant they might be or even how talented they might be in other ways, but solely to determine how much money they might make. If you were part of a large class, you would probably eliminate quite a number solely on the ground of not knowing them sufficiently well to be able to pass worthwhile judgement on just how financially proficient they actually would get to be. Here again, the analogy with intelligent common stock buying runs very close.

Eventually you would pick the three classmates you felt would have the greatest future earning power. You would make your deal with them.

Ten years have passed. One of your three has done sensationally. Going to work for a large corporation, he has won promotion after promotion. Already insiders in the company are saying that the president has his eye on him and that in another ten years he will probably take the top job. He will be in line for the large compensation, stock options and pension benefits that go with that job.

Under these circumstances, what would even the writers of stock market reports who urge taking profits on superb stocks that "have gotten ahead of the market" think of your selling out your contract with this former classmate, just because someone has offered you 600 per cent on your original investment? You would think that anyone would need to have his head examined if he were to advise you to sell this contract and replace it with one with another former classmate whose annual earnings still were about the same as when he left school ten years before. The argument that your successful classmate had had his advance while the advance of your (financially) unsuccessful classmate still lay ahead of him would probably sound rather silly. If you know your common stocks equally well, many of the arguments commonly heard for selling the good one sound equally silly.

You may be thinking all this sounds fine, but actually classmates are not common stocks. To be sure, there is one major difference. That difference increases rather than decreases the reason for never selling the outstanding common stock just because it has had a huge rise and may be temporarily overpriced. This difference is that the classmate is finite, may die soon and is sure to die eventually. There is not similar life span for the common stock. The company behind the common stock can have a practice of selecting management talent in depth and training such talent in company policies, methods, and techniques in a way which will retain and pass on the corporate vigour for generations. Look at Du Pont in its second century of corporate existence. Look at Dow years after the death of its brilliant founder. In this era of unlimited human wants and incredible markets, there is no limitation to corporate growth such as the life span places upon the individual.

Perhaps the thoughts behind this chapter might be put into a single sentence:

If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is – almost never. "


Guess what I have decided to do

[toyminator12] 16/2/2004 12:14

Well i am sorry too say i have jumped ship on you this morning boys, couldnt resist banking 700 quid in 3 days. I will be keeping a very close watch on this and looking to get back in at whatever level they consolidate.

[tuffbet] 16/2/2004 11:04

This mornings action in the share price suggests to me that a recommendation from IC or one of the tip sheets is imminent . I am old enough and cynical enough not to believe in the existence of Chinese walls so I think thre might just be some "knowledgeable " buying in advance - only my humble opinion no more .

Whatever the reason its not half knackered my carefully planned strategy to buy a day or so after the results when I had hoped the short term speculators would have sold and increased the free float of shares thereby reducing the share price . So its back on with the thinking cap.

I know the theory ie if you are lucky enough to identify a real long term growth story at an early stage ,which is what I really believe we have here you should be happy to average up as more evidence appears that you are right and as I said in earlier posts a few pence at the front reallly doesn't matter further down the line . However I have to admit its not so easy to do the right thing - thats why of course so few investors win in the long term .

I am off for an hour or two to see what the great investors of the past would and did do in the same situation - I suspect its what I said above ie average up the long term winners but I just need some confirmation, some reassurance.

I guess we are already all sitting there this morning saying "why didn't I top up below 100p when I had the chance ,how many of us will be saying just the same thing as it passes through 200p - my guess is too many .

At least Liontrust will be pleased with their placing -they don't make too many mistakes but their problem now is how do they get more stock I don't think the placing itself is meaningfull enough - my guess is one of the big holders possibly Cross Atlantic Technology Fund will be "encouraged " to sell some of their stake in order to allow other institutions on board . The managemnt of Vebnet will want a wider more diversified list of shareholders and it might even be suggested to them that "we would be happier to give you the contract if we had a financial interest in your company" - you know how business works. Its futile to guess how Vebnet will make it easier for institutional shareholders especially potential clients to get shares but watch out for some action in this respect.

The fact that the stock is in the Financial sector and DR Nairn is so well known in that world will mean that this is not a small AIM company which will me missed on their radars because of its size - they will be watching and wondering how do we get the stock so expect to see a big change in the list of institutional shareholders by the time the next set of results come round .

I am beginning to feel like an institutional shareholder myself ie "how do I get a bigger stake ? " I know I am just going to have to bite the bullet and go with the wisdom of the sages but a wee read at the pearls of wisdom and a few whiskies will probably help.

If my next post is more garbled than usual you will I hope forgive me - I am sure it was Burns who said "a wee nip clears the heed"

[wole] 16/2/2004 10:49

Quite a few buyers are having to pay top dollar for some!

[toyminator12] 16/2/2004 09:23

Dont see anyone bailing out after the results either which is good news, only a matter of time before the retail trade starts too push it up. Would be nice to get tipped somewhere too.