Value And Indexed Proper... Share Discussion Threads

[konkel] 06/5/2020 09:12

NAV up a bit...with the caveat of course.
Added a few.

[spectoacc] 05/5/2020 11:31

Thanks @strathroyal. Concern with the revaluations is that they're all basically a nonsense, a few %, and covered by the "material uncertainty" clause.

Agree want it lower first.

[strathroyal] 04/5/2020 20:10

Specto - In total, 11 pubs/restaurants, 4 bingo halls/ bowling alley, caravan park, add to that the 4 props bought in the second half of the year had an uplift of 5.2% in their valuation and it looks poor in the short term. I was heavily into these and sold (at a considerable loss) in the 190s but would consider going back in but need to see the revaluation first as that may give an indication of how much of the dividend will have to go.

[ceaserxzy] 04/5/2020 18:24

With rent down and huge interest on the loans borrowed against the property portfolio, the downside looks big. The question is how big which the next update may shed some light on. one to avoid at them moment.

[ygor705] 04/5/2020 17:52

Probably inevitable that VIN would receive a bit of a hammering on the back of its property portfolio. With a spread of mainly large cap equity holdings, I would expect the overall equity portfolio to be down between 20 and 25%. As there is no so-called 'gating' applicable to investment trusts it is the share price that has to take the strain of any rush to the property exit door. IMO this means that the share price (wherever it does end up) will over compensate for the problems. One to keep an eye on.

[spectoacc] 04/5/2020 14:17

Can't format copy/pasting the property Top 10 but 13% of it is a Dover Caravan Park. 4 good industrial assets, 2 leisure, 3 pubs, make up the rest.

[strathroyal] 04/5/2020 14:09

The next month end asset update, due any day now, should show the property values as at 31/03/20 so presumably NAV is going to be lower by some margin than last month's figure.

[spectoacc] 04/5/2020 12:26

Hmm that didn't last. Been sellers at 155p today, any reason?

Edit - the Factsheet is a laugh. Property revaluation was indeed 31st March - and revalued very marginally upwards! With, of course, the material uncertainty clause. I think I can tell them with material certainty that property values haven't gone up with Covid.

Rent collection for the qtr end 89%, brilliant. Until the end of the sentence: "...Or a payment plan agreed". So isn't comparing like with like vs others.

Gets even better on the equity side. Detractors from performance were indeed CINE, RTN, & MARS, tho they sold CINE (-23%, good call) & RTN (-76%, gulp), & MARS now looks none too clever.

But the winners strewth - DVO +6%, PNN +6%, and ULVR -2%. When you have to include negative performers in your best performers, you're in trouble.

All topped by:

"Towards the end of the month we made modest purchases of well financed businesses....including....Royal Dutch Shell".


I'm agnostic on VIN - everything has a price - but not convinced this is low enough yet.

[spectoacc] 09/4/2020 08:20

Certainly had a bounce. Tho isn't alone.

[tim 3] 06/4/2020 11:56

Problem according to some of the funds is that nobody really knows yet what affect the virus has had on property values yet I assume because very little business is being done.

[konkel] 06/4/2020 11:45

Prop val is 31 March ...so still not sure whether it's included or not?

[tim 3] 06/4/2020 11:44

I notice several property funds are currently "gated".

[spectoacc] 06/4/2020 11:21

But obviously no property revaluation in that yet. Not, I'm fairly certain, that any revaluation is going to show much yet. Every one will carry the RICS uncertainty clause, as a get-out for actually declaring a value.

(In fairness, no transactions to judge value by).

[konkel] 06/4/2020 11:18

NAV better than I'd expected...the fact sheet should be out in a week or so at which time we should hear more about rents receivable.

[webpax] 06/4/2020 08:47

Thanks for sharing that information konkel. This is on my watchlist for potential purchase at some point.

[konkel] 03/4/2020 17:02

I spoke with Co last week. They were tight lipped as property valuation is end March for release early April..hence they're in a closed period. One would have to expect a sharp downwards revision and, in all likelihood, some bad payers re rents.
Also some dodgy smaller holdings....from memory Marsdens, Restaurant Group and Cineworld...all closed, overleveraged basket cases (for now at least!
VIN itself is leveraged through its horribly expensive debenture so no surprise this one has fallen more than the market. I own some but, luckily, did take the top off much higher up so will look to add when we know more and when things calm down.

[spectoacc] 03/4/2020 15:09

Must admit I'd taken VIN off my watchlist after selling, wonder at what point it's a long again. Need to dig through their dodgy holdings and property tenants.

Edit, and now possibly out of date:

33% UK property, and a Top 10 of:
ULVR - GSK - BP - VOD - BEZ - LGEN - PNN - SXS - CRDA

A few divi-cutters in there already, and a few more to come, but not that bad a defensive set IMO.

If anyone remembers the comm prop tenants to save me looking... I recall they did some selling & buying recently.

Edit #2 - this is what I was thinking of:

"We bought three new properties over the year with RPI-linked rent reviews: an industrial/ warehouse in Aylesford, Kent just off the M20, and two bingo halls in Bradford and Manchester, at a purchase price of £8.8 million and an average net initial yield on purchase of 6.6%; their average unexpired lease length was 19 years. We sold two pubs in Lancaster in view of covenant concerns as well as short-leased retail properties in Bedford, Oxford and Sevenoaks at a sale price of £10.3 million (5% above valuation) with a net initial yield of 7.3%, falling to below 6.0% on their current rental values. The property portfolio was fully invested at the year end."


Good news to ditch the pubs, less so to buy two bingo halls - wonder how secure the covenants are.

At last AR, VIN owned:

11 pubs/restaurants
4 Industrials
3 Leisure (in addition to pub/restaurants)
2 petrol stations
2 "Other"
2 supermarkets, but annoyingly the lowest rental stream of the lot.

That's in order of rental income, from £1.2m pa for the pubs/restaurants, to £226k for the supermarkets.

All-in-all, not great, depending on your view of how long the Covid-19 disruption lasts (a long time, in my view).

[topvest] 29/12/2019 11:11

Yes, a good earning benefit once the 11% debenture is repaid. They have already effectively refinanced it taking advantage of low interest rates. Will have a negative short term impact and then a positive medium term impact.

[mozy123] 29/12/2019 01:27

just wanted to make a note of the debentures for this trust.

11% First Mortgage Debenture Stock 2021 - Annual interest £1,650,000
9.375% Debenture Stock 2026 - Annual Interest £1,875,000

[coolen] 26/12/2019 21:24

I agree. The sole mark suggests an internal cross without the jobber being involved.

[topvest] 25/12/2019 18:06

Yes, interesting. It looks like he’s not too happy about being dumped. As I have said previously, the Board have not been very transparent. We know that something has happened, but they are not going to let shareholders know until the EGM motion flies in. I would predict that Matthew Oakeshott will be staging a comeback in 2020. To be honest, at the moment, I would be inclined to back him given the Board haven’t been straight with us.

[sleepy] 24/12/2019 22:54

16 December announcement looks like an increase in the Oakeshott interest.

Perhaps today’s big trade is more of the same?

[konkel] 24/12/2019 22:49

Only a one sided trade tho?