Utilico Emerging Markets Share Discussion Threads

[praipus] 13/1/2006 22:55

Just been listenting to Radio 4's in business program presented by Peter Day titled "Reshaping the World" it draws on a number of sources mostly Jim O'Niel's (Goldman Sachs) thesis on BRIC's (Brazil, Russia, India and China's)ascendancy interesting to note that 9 of UEM's top 10 investments are in BRICS.

Long way to go you and very strong buy IMHO.

[krishall] 13/1/2006 22:07

Nice jump in NAV announced towards end of trading day. Perhaps that was why the last trade was a significant buy.

[praipus] 13/1/2006 14:23

Interesting to see in the monthly comment the Polish Gas company had been sold out at a tidy 14% profit due to political worries.

[praipus] 12/1/2006 15:07

Had expected these to go sub NAV initially but prooving me wrong nicely.

[purse] 12/1/2006 14:54

Price is now developing nicely after the initial launch.

[krishall] 17/11/2005 18:12

As regards UEM, in the absence of any monthly savings scheme associated with it, then I anticipate accumulating on a three monthly basis for perhaps the next two years. Then sit on it indefinitely. Of course, all plans now are subject to change dependant on changing market conditions.

[krishall] 17/11/2005 11:29

I came thru the tech crash with a slight gain - although if I'd sold at the top I'd be laughing know. PYF does seem to have a very niche slot and do seem to be ahead of the field. The mobile device market is expanding rapidly and pay back time should be not much more than a year away. They came to market without hype or market sentiment with them - but stock price has held.

Reasonable experience has tought me to keep to a stop loss system - but different %'s on different stocks - not just a flat xx% for every and all stocks. If this stock plummets then might not have time to implement it anyway. So I accept that I could lose all the amount invested in it. But it's my only one of two boom or bust stocks I hold - so even if it goes bankrupt then it won't result in any lost sleep for me.

If it does rise due to the PYF technology being commercially utilized and market sentiment swings toweards it then I would hope to dsee at least a tripling in price by the start of 2007. So warrants would be a somewhat more multiple increase before expiry. So I still think risk / reward is in my favour. Will hold till the boom or bust.

PS ... As it's the UEM board then probably best to continue any further PYF discussion on that board. My last comment is that Nasdaq is back over 2200 - and sentiment seems to be swinging towards biotech, nanotech

[praipus] 17/11/2005 10:22

Krishall, fascinating, have owned this type of stock in the TMT days. Recognition Systems RGS shares went from my buy price of 35p to 5p to £2.40 to £6.30 then 5p again!!!!

What is your trading strategy with PYF? Do you have a stop-loss in place? Do you have a stop-limit or an upside target say 25% up then sell?

[krishall] 16/11/2005 15:18

Praipus. Thanks for your thoughts.
I'm reasonably happy to hold Polyfuel. The results of the years of research should soon pay off - but of course nothing is definite as this is high risk / high reward stock. I've established my position in PYF and will continue to hold. When it reaches the point that I wake up in the night thinking about it, then that's the time I'll sell - but might be too late by then.
UEM is one of the stocks I'd like to add to on a regular basis. As it's a collective investment vehicle then it's not likely to shoot up in any massive jumps - but it should make regular and significant progress - and outperform established market indicies.

[praipus] 16/11/2005 14:54

PYF according to interims theyve lost $40 million dollars since inception 1999 so they are burning approx $8 million per annum. They have cash of $4 million and in the last year they had an income of $480,000. So in theory they are probably bust. NAV per share is -$51 or -£28 and the current share price 50p.

Difficult to see an upside on these, Krishall I suggest sell PYF and buy UEM.

[krishall] 15/11/2005 16:01

They look well placed to forefil their potential. So in that terms it's speculation as nothing can be sure for the future. Another company could come along with superior technology and wipe PYF off the map. However, my feeling is that they will remain leaders in their field and it won't be too long before the research starts paying off. So in that sence it's an investment.

They've issued another Press Release today entitled 'FLUOROCARBON MEMBRANES ONCE AGAIN IN THE CROSSHAIRS AS POLYFUEL REPRISES PORTABLE FUEL CELL PERFORMANCE SHOOTOUT'. Posted on the www.polyfuel.com website

I personally think the share price will start increasing noticably before the warrants expire. So interested in both the shares and warrants.

Although todays 550k shares transaction is showing as a Sell - I think it's a delayed Buy.Someone somewhere must have done some research to trade more than a quarter of a million quids worth in one transaction.

[praipus] 15/11/2005 14:02

Krishall, PYF how do you value them? Is this speculation or investment?

[krishall] 15/11/2005 11:46

Rambutan2 - Thought the Rambutan might signify a Thai connection ...but doesn't in this case.

Praipus. Thanks for the info. Some movement on PYF now as a 550,000 share transaction took place.

[praipus] 15/11/2005 10:27

krishall, 90% in value stocks (i.e. at a discount to NAV and ideally a positive dividend history)currently (ECWC, UIL, JEL, PDP*, BWG, DVW, NWG, SPW) and no more than 10% in speculative stocks (CFD short ETL and MRW sometimes, CFD longs in NWG, GLA and NMS). As for size if a special situation occurs like the capital re-org Ecofin went through I allocate all the assets accordingly.

* PDP PD Ports announced they have been approached and expect to make an announcement in the next couple of weeks. Also produced a good set of results and a dividend!

[rambutan2] 15/11/2005 09:49

hi krishall, i looked after a tropical fruit farm in oz for a few months - it was rambutan season. i fell in love...

re mne. asset value (of british empire trust renown) are buyers at the mo.

[krishall] 15/11/2005 06:25

Rambutan2... How did you decide on your advfn nickname?

Think MNE share price is equivalent to it's NAV at the moment. But about 2 years ago it was at up to 20% discount. I presume quite a few value investors that bought in that period might still be holding in the expectation of additional rises in NAV to come ... KH.

[rambutan2] 15/11/2005 01:34

mne intrigues me at the mo due to the buying by asset value investors - they v good and only buy at a good discount. so, where are they seeing the discount with mne?

[krishall] 14/11/2005 21:11

Firstly, as regards Polyfuels that I mentioned a few days ago, then there was a review of them on Citywire today.

My 'master' plan was to keep about 50% of funds in long term investments and 'enjoy' actively trading the other 50%. But seems I've built up long term investments up to 100%. So at least that saves on stamp duty and brokers fees.
However, plan to free up some other money go dedicate it to additional active trading soon as nothing I want to sell from my long term holdings. .

I try to keep about 10 investments going at a time. But monitor about another 30 at any one time - but more out of interset at the moment as no spare 'trading' funds available (as mentioned above).

Usually trade in equal amounts for all stocks of 2 - 3 k pounds. But accumulated several batches of MNE and a couple of batches of TRE. Only one batch of UEM at the moment. If UEM had a monthly savings plan then I'd be filling in the form now. I'm actually fairly anti-globalization (as old enough to think that all progress is not necessarily good) - but globalization has opened up so many investment oportunities including UEM. As I write this I'm listening to President Blair praising globalization.

So... Praipus... I'd now be interested to hear of which sectors & companies you're interested in and you're overall strategy. Await...

[praipus] 14/11/2005 17:15

Krishall, how many investments do you run at one time and what percentage do you have in MNE, TRE and UEM ? Also how many have a dividend stream? Just curious.

[praipus] 11/11/2005 16:34

Thanks Krishall, saw MNE join the market at £1 and tank so I'm a bit cautious though I am tracking them and they probably represent a good buy now.

TRE I think was tipped by Simon Cewkwell at T1ps.com the others I will watch with interest. I may have said before but Ecofin ECWC,ECW and ECWO have a holding in a French alternative energy company PSECH. ECWC (capital shares highly geared) is trading at a 25% discount so may be worth a look.

[krishall] 11/11/2005 15:43

No problem asking... Here's the answers...

On Alternastive Energy then into the main two Investment Trusts involved. First is Merrill Lynch New Energy Technology PLC (MNE). They seem to be the main solely energy fund. Like the companies they invest in & ML seem quite good fund managers on specialist funds. (Wish I'd stayed with their World Mining Fund for a couple of years longer).

Second is Impax Environmental Markets PLC (IEM). I like that they are diversified into other enviromental companies as well as alternative energy. The fund is managed by Impax who are a specialist company who seem to know what they are doing. As such they seem to be slightly ahead of the market in choosing their investments.

For an individual company in the sector I like Trading Emissions PLC (TRE). Liked the quality of management - especially after the recent news release as to what they were doing with funds.

On Nanotechnology side I haven't identified a particular fund ( -there are non as such but seem to be a couple of venture capital funds that have a heavy weighting in the sector). Therefore plumped for an individual company - Polyfuel (PYF). They're very specialized in membrane cell technology but seem to be leaders in their field. The commercial payback time for the research / patents isn't too far away. If this stock meets the potential I think it has then I'll be more than happy. Interseting side play with it are the warrants. Another 14 months to go on them. If underlying share price does rise in anticipation of large orders for the companies technology then the warrants should go exponential.

Anyway, as usual, the above is just my personal 2p's worth.

[praipus] 11/11/2005 15:15

Which Nanotechnology and Alternative Energy companies are you in to and why if you dont mind me asking?

[krishall] 11/11/2005 12:54

Well I still think it's a good 'bet'. Looking longish term so I can plonk some money there and leave it for a rainy day some distant years away. Utilities and Emerging markets combined make this a good long term play. My other two sectors for long term investment are Nanotechnology and Alternative Energy.
So anyone know a Utility company in an Emerging country that is researching Nanotechnology to generate Energy .... and I'll put 50% of my future pension in to it.

[praipus] 11/11/2005 10:29

Hope your right.