Urban&civic Share Discussion Threads

[anley] 31/12/2018 12:52

But the market is not saying that MAIKEN because here we are at the start of 2019 and the price is 260p and huge numbers of PI are holding paper losses on a business that is profitable and in the right places BUT with a political risk.

That is how I view the market in UANC - I want to buy in but what is the real price in these troubled markets?

If readers look at the other link you will read that I have been in and out of this share in 2017/18 with a good profit and dividends. The same fundementals were the same 18 months ago as they are today.

In the meantime I am comparing Inland Homes (INL) with UANC and will tell you which one I am going to go for in 2019.

[maiken] 03/12/2018 14:54

house broker JP Morgan forecasts epra NAV 363p to Sep '19. excluding large cap discount.Add in the large cap discount and we are well over £5.

[shaker44] 30/11/2018 04:21

What has to happen to justify such a massive discount?? Interest rates hit 12%??
Nuts

[maiken] 29/11/2018 19:17

at 295p these are at a 38% discount to NAV +large cap discount of 477p.Over 4 years forward sales already locked in [albeit at variable prices].
Looks good value to me.
Did anyone else expect large cap discount to grow from 88p to 145p ?

[spob] 29/11/2018 08:08

-- 30 September 2018 EPRA NAV + large site discount = 476.8p per share, an exceptional year-on-year increase of 28 per cent (30 September 2017: EPRA NAV per share + large site discount = 372.4p per share).

[james188] 03/9/2018 21:29

Interesting that Grosvenor are copying the same basic model. I am a holder - and a fan. The only issue for me is the current price. Many of the leading builders are much more attractively priced at the moment and so I have tended to divert available funds in that direction.

[shaker44] 07/8/2018 09:25

very quiet here. anyone reading this? even better value now @ 208....

[shaker44] 13/7/2018 12:28

I see 2 directors have invested a further £370k buying uanc at 305 after the placing.
I have topped up as well while the price is 10% down following huge placing

[shaker44] 11/7/2018 03:30

I see that 3 days prior to placing, berenberg wrote a very positive review of uanc with target share price of 388p.
The placing of £123m completed successfully yesterday and one would expect upward momentum to be restored albeit slowly, as the placing clearly does not affect trading performance. its speedy succesful conclusion underlines institutional confidence in uanc bod.
dyor

[shaker44] 10/7/2018 09:53

huge placing at 10% below last close.
great opportunity to add on the cheap in my view

[anley] 05/6/2018 13:09

Not much one can say except well done management and just keep it going as the market is realising just what a good business model this is.

Not sure if estate agents are keen as they like the old model. However, one needs to keep and eye on the way this government wants land prices down as they see this as a General Election issue and are planning long term new ideas etc.

[spob] 31/5/2018 07:30

Clear direction of travel: 31 March 2018 EPRA NAV + large site discount = 404p per share up 8+ per cent on 30 September 2017.


Commenting on the results, Nigel Hugill, Chief Executive, said:

"There is an unavoidable element of pioneering in creating a new property format. We seem now to be through that with a Master Developer business that continues to grow and is looking more scalable with each successive set of results. Urban&Civic is becoming the serviced land wholesaler of choice to a broad spread of housebuilders. Five years forward licence sales provide us with singular resilience. Demonstrable upside with a good level of asset and income security from strong demographic areas in southern England is precisely what we have been working towards."

[anley] 13/3/2018 10:31

,,,,,,,,,,,,,including the Reading deal.............

[shaker44] 17/1/2018 18:16

I agree, and considerably helped by the fact that Uanc operates in areas with the largest growth in house prices.

[mark10101] 17/1/2018 17:56

This is a post from Spob back in Feb last year. Just wondering if it was representative of the rest of the sales.

spob14 Feb '17 - 17:54 - 49 of 99
0 1 0
Simon Thompson today

Shares in Urban & Civic have rallied around 7 per cent in the past eight weeks, but still look undervalued on a 19 per cent discount to historic EPRA NAV of 284p, and priced 29 per cent below EPRA NAV estimates of 324p and 332p, respectively, based on forecasts from analysts at Stifel and JP Morgan Cazenove. The valuation uplifts expected are eye-catching, but it’s worth noting that last year unserviced residential EPRA values per plot rose by a third to £24,500 at the company’s 1,432 acre freehold site at Alconbury Weald, incorporating Cambridgeshire's Enterprise Zone, with permission for 5,000 homes; and jumped by 16 per cent to £15,000 per plot at the 1,170 acre site in Rugby where permission has been granted for 6,200 new homes.

Bearing this in mind, the first house sale at Alconbury generated a £64,000 profit and produced an unserviced plot value of £71,000 per private plot, well above the appraised blended plot value of £24,500 calculated by CBRE Limited, an independent firm of chartered surveyors, which was used in Urban&Civic̵7;s last set of accounts. That’s significant because CBRE have conservatively valued the two developments at Rugby and Alconbury at £105m and £197m, respectively, so these account for three quarters of the company’s net asset value of £410m. This means that the difference between the larger site valuation of Alconbury and Rugby, as included in the EPRA valuation, and current land parcel sales to housebuilders is around £91m, a sum worth 60p per share.

I feel that investors are likely to cotton onto this ‘hidden’ value when Urban&Civic next reports results and continue to rate the shares a value buy

[anley] 17/1/2018 16:56

The local Hunts Post article shows how central government can be engaged with coal face house building............that is not to say that is a good thing as planning law needs to change.........BUT how quickly?

No idea MARK10101 where the £71K figure for a plot comes from but the big point is thats its a smart development and the houses are selling well.

The AGM is soon but I shall be way so would have gone.

[mark10101] 16/1/2018 08:37

There was a post in February that stated the first plot at Alconbury went for £71,000 per private unserviced plot.


Does anyone know if this excellent plot valuation at Alconbury was maintained? Is an average figure for the plots sold after this avaialable anywhere?

[anley] 05/1/2018 14:15

So if we add 304p + 68p = 372p is the current valuation and today the price is 304p........good progress.

[glawsiain] 03/1/2018 14:05

Simon thompson of investor's chronicle mentioned UANC today:

"I also note that shares in Urban&Civic, a listed property group specialising in strategic residential land developments, have risen by 12 per cent since I advised buying ahead of the full-year results at the end of November ('Trading plays', 9 Oct 2017). As expected the company’s EPRA net asset value (NAV) posted a decent uplift, rising from 284p to 304p a share.

However, this only tells part of the story because surveyors’ valuations embedded in that EPRA figure incorporate a thumping discount on the actual open market prices of land parcels Urban&Civic is achieving at its 1,432 acre freehold site at Alconbury Weald, incorporating Cambridgeshire's Enterprise Zone; and at the 1,170 acre site in Rugby. Marking land to open market prices adds almost £100m to the company’s net asset value, a sum worth 68p a share. I fully expect the rerating to continue as further land is sold off and the hidden value in the accounts is crystallised. Buy."

[spob] 03/1/2018 12:57

People starting to wake up to the HIDDEN value here

[2breakout] 03/1/2018 12:39

decent breakout