Uramin Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 22/6/2007 08:51

From the action of the share price it does begin to look like hopes of another bidder are receding. Oh well, its been a good ride while it lasted.

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 20:51

cheers, pap. that's good spot, nevertheless. i wouldn't have noticed a bb heading unless i'm already attracted to the stock. how can someone scan bb headings frequently?

i think i first heard of TMC from you on here, and then TheShareWeekly tipped it last month. i immediately got in. initially it was slow but suddenly burst out earlier this month. it was fun! the thing with TheShareWeekly is that it only tipps a good share when it has a confirmation breakout - so it's relatively safe.

i think it still has mileage left - wouldn't surprised of another £. i'm not very good at geometric chart indicators; i use numerical ones more, mainly oscillators. it looks that TMC's the oscillators haven;t quite come back to the buy zone, so i'm happy to wait, as i have already got one foot in anyway... besides, i think it's perhaps time to turn attention towards techs from now on...

Martin, hope you've made/is making a mint on your UKX long. i seem to have called today's US market bang on! i know, it's much easier said than done - once i get involved, my mind will be as clear as mud. anyhow, hope today indeed marks the low for months to come! at least it's a wish...

[papillon] 21/6/2007 18:35

Hi Netsdeal, still big volume in Canada. Somebody must be picking them up. I wonder why? Re TMC. I can't remember when, or why, TMC came to my attention, though I did 1st buy shares in them around a year ago. I was attracted by the then very small Mkt Cap relative to the advfn bb heading "Cashflow from the Worlds 3rd largest Nickel resource". I have never had many TMC shares so though I have made money out of them its only a relatively small amount. I sold some far too early when they 1st "broke out" in April 2007. Though I managed to get my timing right when I sold more early this month when they peaked. I currently hold a very small number but, hopefully, will buy back in. They do have tremendous potential and appear to be cheap. I'm not very good at charts but is that a "flag" formation and are we to see around another £1 on the share price and soon? They are currently shipping ore so I presume its a share that will be attracting institutions. Seems pretty cheap still for a producer of such an in demand metal. Whats your opinion Netsdeal? Do you have any Martin?

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 17:53

magic fingers? just saw UMN jumped up 8 cents after i posted the above!

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 17:51

sounds good, fordtin. the pdf link is also useful. thanks!

guess KAH will start to move up as soon as dow finishes re-testing its consolidation levels?

strange that Canaddian funds are pushing UMN down to below its cash worth. there might be some margin trading closing? or they're just switching out of it and into other u stocks that have been beaten down recently?

pap, can i ask you how TMC first came to your attention? i saw you mentioned it here, but TSW tipped it too late for me to get in. it seems a very good stock and could resume its uptrend after this consolidation (although i wouldn't top up just yet). TIA.

[papillon] 21/6/2007 16:06

Cheers fordtin. Well UMN continues to go down in Canada. On very large volume so far. I can live with it. I made a lot of money out of UMN.

[papillon] 21/6/2007 15:02

Hi seagreen, look at the RNS dated 15/06/07, time 14:16 and titled Re: Cash Offer. The Directors propose making a special dividend, to shareholders, of shares in the "Niger" spin off, if allowed by Law. If its not allowed then they will distribute a cash alternative.

[seagreen] 21/6/2007 14:55

Pap no one can be sure just all the indicators imply it and I was hoping you would get out at a premium to the bid price as it was over £4...but I think the management like the clean cash bid, there is a poison pill and there is zero speculation about any other bidder but who knows you may be lucky...

What did you mean by......

"so I'm prepared to hold on in the knowledge that I will receive as many shares as possible in the "Niger" spin off, which could catch the Markets imagination when it floats."

Why would you get any shares in the spin off unless you subscribed to it I am a bit confused?

[papillon] 21/6/2007 14:35

Cheers Netsdeal, I appear to have got a good price. It was for 20k shares not 50k!! My arithmetic is getting worse!

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 14:02

that's fast, pap! good lukc!

T20? have to say my experience with TDW wasn't exactly great on that - it seems they only use Winterflood for T20 (and perhaps everything else)! i hear WINS is THE sliest MM of all! they lend you money for T20 and then won't give you any discount into the yellow band and try to squeeze you when you want out with a size larger than the published NMS (which is often far too small).

for years in most countries (even from Day 1 in China), retail investors are able to put orders directly on Level 2, enjoying the same power as MMs'... no wonder UKX is the slowest of all? Look at DAX, surpassing UKX more than 1400 points now! and ASX, 30% up in one year - soon to over take UKX?

[papillon] 21/6/2007 13:19

Cheers Netsdeal, had a quick look at the recent RNS's and recent bb posts on KAH and bought 20k shares on a T20. Will continue to investigate. Looks very good; wide spread of interests. Many thanks Martin and Netsdeal for mentioning it.

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 13:06

hi, pap, i think Martin worked KAH out himself, with his brilliant charting, and actually i gained confidence from his prediction of a turning point at this level... hope we're both right! if so, i'll add more...

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 13:04

looks good timing, Martin!! UKX may not go lower now when Dow follows Europe down initially after open, and marks a low today and then rebounds, followed by a healthy rise in the months to come? just a guess... or hope... whatever ... as long as it makes profit...

GCL is going up... BTW

[papillon] 21/6/2007 12:59

Hi Martin, pleased to see you still holding; gives me confidence. Hi Netsdeal, CMK looks great. I've read elsewhere that the people behind Cline are well respected. I have never held a share on a foreign exchange; I will have to take the plunge one day!! Mustn't be so insular! You have mentioned KAH before; I believe Martin has followed your advice? I will take a good look.

[marnewton] 21/6/2007 12:50

Just gone long the FTSE...6580 was my target.

Still holding here...

Happily holding KAH (first tranche;@)

Out to lunch!

M

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 12:38

also KAH, its near-term chart just looks lilke UEP's before today, but much smaller spread (can actually get in @24.62, and get our @24.34 at today's spread).

this share shouldn't break below 22 and will reach 38 relatively quickly........DYOR!i hope today will mark the general market's low and if so, a great entry point...

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 12:28

pap, bang on indeed, though i'd prefer a range, as these things can never be precise, and there will be dynamic overshoots and undershoots...

good for you, pap, on UEP, but i'd definitely go for TSE:CMK instead! UEP's spread is over 10%, plus stamp etc. As you know, CMK holds 40% of UEP, has negative spread (buy at a price lower than sell when the market does not move), and no stamp! If you compare the 2, the share price of CMK hasn't reflected the doubling share price of UEP since February... let alone everything else of CMK thrown in free!

[papillon] 21/6/2007 11:52

Hi seagreen, why are you so categoric in your assertion that there will be no counterbid? What is your source of information that enables you to be so catagoric? Do you have inside information? I admit the current share price is not indicating one. Netsdeal, I reckon the bid is currently worth at least US$7.85; the cash bid of US$7.75 plus at LEAST US$0.10 for the "Niger" spin off based on the 23% stake sold for US$19 million recently. At the current exchange rate that equals £3.94. Bang in line with the current share price so I'm prepared to hold on in the knowledge that I will receive as many shares as possible in the "Niger" spin off, which could catch the Markets imagination when it floats. Who knows? Punters seem to be on the look out for UMN 2. With that in mind I topped up in UEP this morning. Continuing to go up after I bought. I'm concentrating on the explorers looking in Africa because despite the geo-political risks It appears to be much easier and quicker to start a mine in Africa. So I'm holding BRM, URA and UEP as good gambles. relko, yes obviously if Areva don't get 75% of acceptances their bid for UMN will lapse but I can only see that happening if we get a counterbid, which the share price at this moment in time (and seagreen!) are discounting. The other risk, though much less damaging, is if the US$ continues to weaken (I've got it right this time Netsdeal!) thus reducing Sterling value of the bid.

[netsdeal] 21/6/2007 11:23

390-400p, depends on the USD/GBP rate and how you estimate the rest.

Uranium May Rise to $200 in Year Before Falling, Investec Says

By Antony Sguazzin

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Uranium prices may rise to $200 a pound within the next year because of a shortage of the nuclear material, Investec Securities said.

The metal, currently trading at $138 a pound, may average $160 a pound in 2009 before declining to an average of $50 a pound from 2013, Leon Esterhuizen, a Johannesburg-based analyst at Investec, wrote in the report yesterday that was obtained by Bloomberg. Esterhuizen declined to comment on the report when called on his mobile phone.

There is ``a possibility of a significant price rise on the back of a known and increasing market deficit, followed by a supply-side response bringing the market back to balance within the next five years,'' Esterhuizen wrote.

Uranium has risen more than fourfold in the past two years as supply strains to keep pace with demand from power companies.

To contact the reporter on this story: Antony Sguazzin in Johannesburg [e-mail]

Last Updated: June 20, 2007 07:37 EDT

[thecat] 21/6/2007 11:15

Has anyone worked out what this bid is worth, per share , sterling?

[seagreen] 21/6/2007 09:40

over...finito...the end..trust me pap

[seagreen] 21/6/2007 09:36

A customer enters a stock broker.

Mr. Praline: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.

(The owner does not respond.)

Mr. Praline: 'Ello, Miss?

Owner: What do you mean "miss"?

Mr. Praline: I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!

Owner: We're closin' for lunch.

Mr. Praline: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this share what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

Owner: Oh yes, the, uh, the Norweigan Uranium stock...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

Mr. Praline: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!

Owner: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.

Mr. Praline: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

Owner: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Uranium, idn'it, ay? Beautiful deposits!

Mr. Praline: The deposits don't enter into it. It's been taken over its stone dead.

Owner: Nononono, no, no! 'E's resting!

Mr. Praline: All right then, if he's restin', I'll wake him up! (shouting at the cage) 'Ello, Mister Uranium Stock! I've got a lovely fresh bidder for you if you
show...

(owner hits the cage)

Owner: There, he moved!

Mr. Praline: No, he didn't, that was you hitting the cage!

Owner: I never!!

Mr. Praline: Yes, you did!

Owner: I never, never did anything...

Mr. Praline: (yelling and hitting the cage repeatedly) 'ELLO URANIUM!!!!! Testing! Testing! Testing! Testing! This is your nine o'clock alarm call!

(Takes share out of the cage and thumps its head on the counter. Throws it up in the air and watches it plummet to the floor.)

Mr. Praline: Now that's what I call a dead taken over share.

Owner: No, no.....No, 'e's stunned!

Mr. Praline: STUNNED?!?

Owner: Yeah! You stunned him, just as he was wakin' up! Norwegian Uraniums stun easily, major.

Mr. Praline: Um...now look...now look, mate, I've definitely 'ad enough of this. That share is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not 'alf an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it bein' tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk.

Owner: Well, he's...he's, ah...probably pining for the fjords.

Mr. Praline: PININ' for the FJORDS?!?!?!? What kind of talk is that?, look, why did he fall flat on his back the moment I got 'im home?

Owner: The Norwegian Uranium prefers keepin' on it's back! Remarkable bird, id'nit, squire? Lovely deposits of Uranium!

Mr. Praline: Look, I took the liberty of examining that share when I got it home, and I discovered the only reason why it had gone over the bid price was some charitable people led by Sagem and Papilion were still buying it to give some free money to the market makers and their brokers due to thje goodness of their hearts.

(pause)

Owner: Well, o'course it its worth more than the bid price! If we hadn't nailed that share down, it would have nuzzled up to those bars, bent 'em apart with its beak, and
VOOM! Feeweeweewee!

Mr. Praline: "VOOM"?!? Mate, this share wouldn't "voom" if you put four million volts through it! 'E's bleedin' demised!

Owner: No no! 'E's pining!

Mr. Praline: 'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This share is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nbig em up higher than the bid 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!! THIS IS AN EX-TAKEOVER STORY!!

(pause)

Owner: Well, I'd better replace it, then. (he takes a quick peek behind the counter) Sorry squire, I've had a look 'round the back of the shop, and uh,
we're right out of uranium take overs.

Mr. Praline: I see. I see, I get the picture.

Owner: I got a coal mine stock.

(pause)

Mr. Praline: Pray, does it talk?

Owner: Nnnnot really.

Mr. Praline: WELL IT'S HARDLY A BLOODY REPLACEMENT, IS IT?!!???!!?

Owner: N-no, I guess not. (gets ashamed, looks at his feet)

Mr. Praline: Well.

(pause)

Owner: (quietly) D'you.... d'you want to come back to my place?

Mr. Praline: (looks around) Yeah, all right, sure.

[relko] 21/6/2007 09:26

Pap
The main downside risk is that Areva don't get 75% acceptance and then the share price could fall back to 320p
Have to I say, I can't see that tho'.
Everyone was full of the bid last week. The fact that the 2006 Accounts were also issued seems to past without comment.
It was the "water issue" on page 9 which drew my attention.
Dissappointed by the Company's statement. Wasn't positive enough and didn't convince me that Trekkopje was "on time"
LOL
relko (still holding an overweight position)