Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dandadandan] 15/1/2019 08:37

Getting ready for some excellent news.

Keep an eye on those trades.

GLA.

[tyler90] 15/1/2019 08:30

Lol! All holders want this to break more than 4p!This morning's start suggesting that yesterday's rise was due to Optiva note or buying across the pond not a leak from Wick.There is a school of thought that is of the mind that Wick is not a success and yesterday's note was released to support the share price when that news is made official. Surely, our BoD & Saint SS would not do that would they?

[shares188] 15/1/2019 08:17

Keeping feet on the ground is fine!!
BUT I for one want this to break 4p
and start giving holders some value!!!
It's about time....

[kemche] 15/1/2019 00:09

Yes GORM. That's EXAAACTLY what it is like.

I'm going to stick with Lenin.

[gunsofmarscapone] 14/1/2019 23:04

The real problem is: if your knowledge of what is a HORRENDOUSLY complicated business is poor (mine is sub-sub average) then you need to develop logic. Spangle has tried to explain how probablity as a mathematical science relates to a licence area. Here’s a phrase cut and pasted from someone earlier “ leads as discoverd by a competent person must have a fair bit of value lurking deep down within”

Assumption made! A ‘competentR17; person MUST know what they are talking about. They do, yet they do not unequivocally know what is under the surface.

An analogy may be a neurosurgical operation in the 1960’s: only able to inspect X-ray imagery, focal signs and perhaps radio opaque studies. The operation goes ahead and a massively invasive brain malignancy is found or, something entirely innocuous or even absent; the symptoms were in fact physiological in origin. Even contemporary 3D seismology along with months of reprocessing and analysis leaves significant doubt.

Lets see what is there, not long now...

[amaretto] 14/1/2019 21:19

Thanks Spangle for the clarification and for your great posts on here generally.

[throwingmuses] 14/1/2019 21:03

Absolutely, makes all the difference. Hopefully this week we'll need our feet kept on the ground, and not our spirits lifted. Wick results any day!

[soulsauce] 14/1/2019 20:55

Aye he'll know I'm kidding.

Seriously though it is good to have some one on board to keep our feet firmly on the ground.

[throwingmuses] 14/1/2019 20:49

Hahaha I'd love to help but I fear you're better at that too! The only good thing about not knowing your stuff with regards to oiles, is that it forces you to follow good management before good assets, which can sometimes work! Here, we have both of course :)
Soul, agreed, esp the gold stuff, the nowt tae day stuff yae went tae far

[soulsauce] 14/1/2019 20:22

throwingmuses Spangle is worth his weight in gold on here cutting through broker reports etc and he's got nowt else to do anyway 😊

Just kidding my friend 😉

[spangle93] 14/1/2019 20:21

... as long as one day you, in turn, teach me how to make any money from these shares ;-)

Yes, I agree with your hopeful scenario :D

[throwingmuses] 14/1/2019 20:15

Ok spangle I get you, cheers! Leads not reserves, must compute! Just read through it and thought they aren't including much in here! I see why they've done that now, but still, leads as discoverd by a competent person must have a fair bit of value lurking deep down within, hopefully many will be proved up as time goes on, and when they are the brokers notes might be using three digits not two! Thanks for your patience spangle, hope it's not too soul destroying reiterating the basics time after time!

[spangle93] 14/1/2019 20:01

Amaretto - it was good stuff until the last paragraph. Both the project 250 MMbbl (Wick structure) and the Blackwatch 219 MMbbl (part of the structure within the licence) describe the oil in place, not the potentially recoverable oil, and certainly not reserves.

Optiva's very large valuation is based on 73 MMbbl (30% recoverable of the Blackwatch figure) * 40% new UPL interest.

Optiva's risked 6.7p is actually based on the chance of this current well only demonstrating 23 MMbbl recoverable of the 73 MMbbl, i.e. only a part of the structure.


Throwingmuses - there are NO reserves on the Tunisia licence. Right now much of the block is just unproven, prospective resources, i.e. right down the bottom of the probability scale - just a geophysicist and a geologist playing what-if scenarios with very limited data - so most analyst companies wouldn't value it at all.

The Optiva valuation has been based on the two structures which have had wells drilled on them and recovered or observed hydrocarbons, i.e. they are closer to appraisal prospects than leads

[throwingmuses] 14/1/2019 19:38

Also, the Tunisia valuation only concentrates on the previous gas discovery, and the one oil play, as far as I can see. This is only a tiny fraction of the total reserves on the licence, or am I missing something? Very conservative estimates applied to their calculations as well, yet still coming out with figures well ahead of where we are now. Bodes well..

[amaretto] 14/1/2019 19:00

Optiva note is pretty clear about the valuation on Wick if you ask me.

They currently attribute a risked value based on a very pessimistic recoverable amount of oil and 40% chance of success of 6.7p.

If Wick is a duster then it’s worth nothing, leaving just the rest of Uplands assets, which are worth 7.4p (14.1-6.7). Bearing in mind, before we got the Tunisia update the company was valued at about that anyway so effectively since Tunisia, the Wick valuation is for free.

However if Wick is successful we can immediately remove the 40% factor for chance of success (as we will by then have found oil) so the 6.7p will immediately become 16.75p, which when added to the 7.4p for everything else gives a new broker target of 24.1p.

This valuation though is based on a pessimistic 23.4 mmbbls recovered rather than the project’s P50 estimates of 250mmbbbls reserve or Blackwatch’s CPR estimates of 219 mmbbls reserve. If we were to use the Blackwatch number the valuation would be 57p plus the 7.4p = 64.4p.

[ride daice] 14/1/2019 18:50

It's in a superposition of valuations.

[shares188] 14/1/2019 18:27

I read that bit about it falling to zero, not quite sure
what to make of that to be honest...

[moormoney] 14/1/2019 18:14

Uog also up into the close. Nice!

[spangle93] 14/1/2019 18:09

With respect to the much mentioned 6.7p figure, re-stated by Optiva in the recent note (thanks Michaelwhight) folks should remember this is a pre-drill risked valuation.

The value falls to zero if Wick is a duster, but according to their logic it's worth 16.8p if all zones are successful (6.7p / 40% CoS)

[moormoney] 14/1/2019 17:15

Thanks Michael...looking good for tomorrow!

[tburns] 14/1/2019 16:53

Thanks for posting that Broker note Michael, very encouraging and as they say, massive uplift on a +be find at Wick, at the very least it is worth 6.7p so discounting the value of Tunisia worth another 8p according to the broker note. If ever there was a share to load up and stick in the draw for 6 months this is it, chances like this with 3 major players, all company makers, come along rarely and Wick is probably the most risky. If that comes good we could be looking at a 10 bagger this year easily. GLA

[michaelwhight] 14/1/2019 16:34

Aye aye! Nice finish today. I hope news isn't tomorrow actually as attention will be on Westminster.

[tburns] 14/1/2019 16:16

There is a 250k delayed buy at 15:08 that pushed the bid and offer up to 3.4 and 3.7p. News this week might well be a possibility

[tburns] 14/1/2019 15:37

I am not inclined to get too excited on the leak front unless we see continued buying and break 4p, worth sitting up and taking notice then