Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[dangersimpson2] 04/5/2021 10:09

On the surface, the Equity Development target of 18x P/E looks a little punchy. The 200p is clearly just picked as a round number.

However, not only does the ED 2021 EPS forecast look a little bit light given the ahead statement, but by using just 6% revenue growth estimate for 2022 (which is their assumption for long-term consumer discretionary spend growth), their 2022 forecast looks like it could be way behind reality. With almost all the catch-up revenue in Europe from lockdowns still to come, then 15-20% revenue growth is more realistic going forward.

When you add in that the current margin hit from shipping is expected to quickly unwind going forward, this would give more like 15p EPS for 2022 and make the current valuation look much better value. ED may have to pick a new round number for their target sometime soon!

[investing2retire] 04/5/2021 08:57

Nice rise this morning and looking hopeful for a steady rise to 200p.i bought in at end of January this year.

[coppertrader] 30/4/2021 20:46

We are upgrade our fair value for UPGS's shares to 200p. This positive view is based on the following key points, most of which have been covered earlier in this report.• UPGS has in our view fully demonstrated its transition from a sourcing company to a brand manager with both its established brands and emerging brands continuing to grow.• The company's channel shift away from discounters towards supermarkets and online – which is facilitated by its brands – puts it in stronger control of product positioning.• Equity markets place a higher value on brand owners than pure sourcing and distribution companies because the intellectual property associated with brands • M & A. Demonstrable brand management capability should be rewarded with an element of "option value" because of the potential to make value enhancing acquisitions of newly available brands on an ongoing basis.• International is an established platform and one with significant scope for addressable market expansion as well as M & A.• UPGS's announcements made between 8th June 2020 and 8th February 2021 included 5 upgrades to sales and profit guidance with a further upgrade to guidance incorporated in today's interim results announcement.• Valuation relative to a carefully selected peer group of listed companies appears undemanding at 200p

[johndoe23] 30/4/2021 16:16

Don't hold but results caught my eye this morning. Could be there is a large seller suppressing the share price, as lot of buying today but not really moving up...

[kingfisher99] 30/4/2021 15:14

The results are as I expected, but I am disappointed with the market response today.

They have delivered good results despite:

- repaying the Covid money during this period,
- increased shipping costs
- depressed market due to many of their outlets being closed.

Their
outlook is looking very promising with the purchase of Petra, on line sales increasing sharply (with a strong strategy to increase further)and a strategy for growing the whole business that has demonstrably worked enabling them to further increase their growth predictions.

In the current climate what are investors looking for?

[thorpematt] 30/4/2021 12:46

A very tidy update. Mostly as expected but ahead of expectations on earnings is lawyas good!

I tend to agrre with EezyMunny, this is a buy and hold stock. Divi policy ensures good returns to shareholders as well as that strong, proven growth profile.

The ROE and ROCE is fantastic, so in terms of what actually comes back to the balance sheet before its invested in growth or payouts this is extremely strong.

I won't be selling any of my stock any time soon that's for sure.

[edmonda] 30/4/2021 09:42

Research note on today's results

And do join us for their investor presentation on Tuesday 4th May at 11am.

[eezymunny] 30/4/2021 08:19

I've dipped in and out of UPGS for some reason. Only today has it dawned on me that this might be one of those rare beasts that you just want to keep holding.

Fairly consistent revenue growth, good cash flow, almost unchanging share count, and continued high returns on capital.

[dr biotech] 30/4/2021 07:12

Decent set of figures. Key statement right at the bottom

CURRENT TRADING AND OUTLOOK

The Board anticipates that its performance in FY 21 will be ahead of current expectations, with revenues forecast to be in excess of GBP135 m (FY 20 - GBP115.7 m). While the Group has seen an increase in shipping rates, as noted above, the Board nevertheless currently expects that underlying EBITDA for FY 21 will be in excess of GBP13.0 m (FY 20 - GBP10.4 m) with underlying profit before tax in excess of GBP10.8 m (FY 20 - GBP8.2 m).

[robbnw] 14/4/2021 20:32

There is no right and wrong Time will tell I used profits to buy into ALT but keeping half holding after tripling my investmentsSure more to come for UPGS

[riviera1069] 12/4/2021 14:28

Yeah. And possibly a mistake but I wanted the money out for ORPH and PFC. Just think I will gain more there. We will see.

[robbnw] 12/4/2021 13:17

Thought u were holdin out for 198

[riviera1069] 12/4/2021 10:30

Change of direction for me and sold all on Friday to invest elsewhere. Great run for me on these and I think it will continue to run.Good luck all and if there is any decent dip (unlikely) here I will be back.

[epo001] 08/4/2021 13:31

And today, nothing. But the spread is 5.5p, pretty sure it was about 1.5p yesterday.

[riviera1069] 07/4/2021 18:58

Yep. Agree. I've looked everywhere. Something going on but cannot find anything. Will all come out in the wash. Happy holder and happy to continue to hold.Will review my holding at 198

[epo001] 07/4/2021 18:35

According to londonstockexchange.com, trade volume and value for the past few days are all quite low, no of trades perhaps a bit higher but this doesn't seem to be buying pressure and yet the price is going up.

[robbnw] 07/4/2021 15:34

Take over . Wow that would be something . We will shoot well over 200

[epo001] 07/4/2021 14:17

Is it a takeover rumour? Who would? Interims due end of the month, suppose they might have leaked.

[quepassa] 07/4/2021 14:04

Since 1st April, UPGS is UP from 150p to 170p in just a few trading sessions over the long Easter week-end.


That's a massive 13% increase without any traceable news.


Something is pushing the price up.....


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[epo001] 07/4/2021 14:01

Price spiked at about 11:35 but no large trades are showing. Content but curious, is this anticipating buying interest?

[robbnw] 07/4/2021 12:07

Wonder whats driving it but then again , long may it continue . Such a quality business . Simon S knows his stuff and like i said before on top of the amazing capital gains , look at the dividend

[riviera1069] 07/4/2021 11:44

Even better today.

[robbnw] 06/4/2021 16:57

What a great day for a quality share

[riviera1069] 06/4/2021 15:25

Yes, nice tick up. Also can't find any news. Only thing on their website is the office refurb is going well.Maybe a share tip somewhere!