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[mister md] 14/2/2018 08:20

Strong buying last couple of days, signalling perhaps that the price drop was an over-reaction

[fillipe] 14/2/2018 08:18

Looks like we're set for higher.

139k v 44k....strong enough at that, for me.

Hopefully, a nice steady upwards progression from the lowly price-pit of recent days.


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[discodave4] 13/2/2018 23:40

Looked at these some time ago and now may be a good time to take a punt.With say £6.5m underlying EBITDA that's about 5.7p eps, putting these on a PE of just over 6.Only concern is can you trust the BOD and is there another profit warning looming at some point......hence can only be a punt IMO.DD

[kirk 6] 13/2/2018 22:33

Most like sells being cleared. Stale ipo holders now gone which is the best possible scenario as it really is onwards and upwards now. A quick doubling of the share price on the cards here

[the patient investor] 13/2/2018 22:29

we may even see more directors buys RNSs tomorrow.
the huge trades at close must be buys from early AM in my opinion, otherwise the share price would have not held so well

[kirk 6] 13/2/2018 22:04

Today was just the start of the tanker turning. Been going down for months on end. Tomorrow will hopefully gain traction now the big trades are out the way and get back to high 40's low 50's

[tel11] 13/2/2018 21:56

Hopefully we shall see another BLUE day tomorrow

[alaneagle] 13/2/2018 21:09

I Agree with Massi. Cash flow posative,PER say 5.5? falling below 5 in 2019 on improved trading. Price down from 200 to mid 30's. At top Mkt Cap was 160M. Maybe that was when EASTBOURNE should have been selling. Not now (unless you think it's bust). BOD buying. And Me!!!!!!!!!!!

This could easily double from here.

[topvest] 13/2/2018 20:53

I personally think its worth £50m now for what its worth. Could easily be worth £100m in 2 years. At least all the big sellers are now out. No overhang.

[tel11] 13/2/2018 20:39

Regardless I know am going to be making profit in coming days

[massimoj] 13/2/2018 20:15

Fair enough. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Why there's buyers and sellers I suppose! I would say though that the limited free cash flow in 2016 is misleading as they repaid loan notes (hangover from PE ownership and v common in those circles, as are higher interest rates). The business model (like it or not) is cash generative as the only capital needed really is working capital.

[eastbourne1982] 13/2/2018 20:05

It's all ?????'s though, kirk 6 feels these should have a market cap of 100 million now, based on current trading, debt position and short term outlook there is no way a valuation of 100 million is justified.

Depending on how the market wants to see these the valuation over the next few months could range from anything between 15 million to 45 million, on the basis of that I don't see the risk / reward stacks up yet.

If the business had no debt I could be tempted however the debt position isn't tiny relative to the market cap now, a further weakening in trading could see bank covenants being tested.

The cash flow here won't be good at the moment either, free cash flow in 2016 was a meagre 0.7 million.

A company with limited assets, several million pounds worth of debt, small margins and minor cash flow certainly isn't worth 100 million.

[the patient investor] 13/2/2018 19:57

great post massimo

[massimoj] 13/2/2018 19:45

Eastbourne - I'll play: Let's assume that next year looks like this year (i.e. let's assume management are wrong about having a better year in 2019), then let's assume things get a little better and over the next couple of years things get a bit better and instead of making £4m after tax, the company makes £6m in 2022 (remember that is way way less than last year so no miracles here). Then assume it matures at that point and profits grow roughly with GDP at 1.5-2% on average. Then discount those profits back at 8-9% to today - take away the debt and that gives you, drum role please, 82p per share, so £64m or so. Doesn't need to do much better than that to hit £100m. This doesn't need to be a massive growth story to justify £100m market cap. If others negging it just like you have been actually did a conservative DCF valuation, instead of guessing tomorrow's price action based on today's volume, maybe the market would be a little less irrational.

[eastbourne1982] 13/2/2018 19:11

kirk 6,

In hard cold numbers tell me why this should have a market cap of 100 million.

[tel11] 13/2/2018 18:33

Kirk thanks

[kirk 6] 13/2/2018 18:24

yes easily hit £1 if and when the seller is out. Dont forget shares can exaggerate both to the upside and downside. I think this fall has been great as its emptied the stale holders from the IPO and instituations. Will recover fast now the big trades have been reported.

These are cash flow generative pay a great dividend and have a very bright future. Should be 100m mkp minimum in my opinion

[kirk 6] 13/2/2018 17:32

Tel - it could be a buy but either way fantastic news. If it's a sell then hopefully and surely based on 82m shares in issue that's the seller done and now we will really motor