Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 12/2/2018 09:19

I'm going for a 40% reduction versus last year at this stage. 7% yield at this price. 10%+ yield on 2018/19 numbers if you believe the recovery story. It will be interesting to hear what Paul Scott says. As to the Board's behaviour, I think that they have been fairly transparent. Just a lot of sour grapes.

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 08:52

I guess they will half the dividend as profits will half , if you average 60p then I reckon your yield is 4% which isn't bad , but high yield, negative growth companies are always ones to avoid. I'm sure Paul Scott will have an opinion on stockopaedia this afternoon ttfn

[quepassa] 12/2/2018 08:44

The FCA needs to investigate this IPO and in particular the Investor Prospectus in my view.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 08:44

I think me meant me , yes I missed the top but got out at 125p having bought at IPO at 160p And made it all back and more on VRS XLM, TAP and others. I made a note never to trust a new IPO , though I have made an exception for NFX but lost out on N4P

[topvest] 12/2/2018 08:42

No thanks. More than happy with this one.

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 08:39

Topvest - there might be a bounce back to 45p - I would get out at that price if I were u .There are many undervalued growth companies were u could make the losses back especially as they have dropped in price due to last weeks sell off. Two that come to mind are XLM and TAp who are looking to acquire companies in the short term.Good luck buddy

[topvest] 12/2/2018 08:24

I'm in at an average price of 60p (90p and now 41p) so quite comfortable with that on a 2/3 year view. I was too early, but I like profit warnings with the potential to recover. This definitely has strong recovery potential and a reasonably strong balance sheet. The story is one of long term growth. Investing shouldn't feel comfortable. A good long term value play in my book. By the time we have the year-end results the outlook should be bouncing back and they are already starting to give better signals for 2018/19. No doubt it will take a while for the share price to recover, but happy to wait and collect dividends in the meantime.

[muzmanoz] 12/2/2018 08:23

If you go into a B&M a lot of the electronic goods which I thought were supplied by Up brands now seem to be supplied by one brand Goodmans which is "exclusive to B&M" and owned by a company called Harvard International. UP seems to have lost the shelf space. Just what I've noticed may not be the case.

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 08:22

EPS will half to 5-6p which puts it on a PE of 6-8 @ 50p which is top heavy.Fair value has to be 30-40p based on two profit warnings in 6 months and the outlook

[topvest] 12/2/2018 08:20

Free cash flow has averaged 5.5p per share in the last 4 years. That's pretty good given the level of sales growth and capital expenditure on the new Oldham warehouse.

[topvest] 12/2/2018 08:17

You just have sour grapes from missing the top. I've added more at 41p. An absolute bargain in my view as I really like this company. Need to look to 2018/19 before the numbers will look good again. Happy to be patient.

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 08:16

topvest,

Scroll back and look at my comments regarding cash flow.

Any idiot can make sales, free cash flow is what matters.

This business us currently worth around 20 - 40 million, if they carry on as they are it will be bust in 3 years.

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 08:15

Topvest they will be lucky to hit 85m , revenue is H1 weighted

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 08:14

Revenue down by 30% , EBITDA the same , profits the same , and margins taking a hit again, it's all rosy in the garden, who is being naive!!

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 08:13

john,

are you up yet ?

I did try to warn you.

[mister md] 12/2/2018 08:07

seems "the market" was right about this one ... sadly

[topvest] 12/2/2018 08:07

They did £109m sales in 2017 and £79m in 2016, so maybe £85-95m sales this year. Hardly a disaster. I'm going to buy more if the price is right.

[nw99] 12/2/2018 08:02

Doesn't look good

[topvest] 12/2/2018 07:57

The Group maintains comfortable levels of funding headroom, with headroom at 31 January 2018 of £8.0m (31 July 2017: £6.2m). This is reasonably good given the dividend cash outflow.

[pugugly] 12/2/2018 07:54

News leaked to the 500K seller mentioned above - Looks as though someone had access to trading figures but the authorities will (imo) do sweet FA as usual.

[kirk 6] 12/2/2018 07:53

They are also committing to paying the high dividend policy aswell

[topvest] 12/2/2018 07:51

Think you are being a bit naive to be honest. They sold half the business and did an IPO when the business was having its best year. Why not? This year has been poor, but I'm not sure that you can necessarily criticise management too much as i'm sure they are not enjoying it or had predicted such a difficult time. For me its a pretty good update and better than most companies. They have given a very specific EBITDA outlook for the year at exactly the point that they should be updating the market. Tempted to double up myself as the longer term outlook is compelling.