Universal Coal Share Discussion Threads

[madmix] 03/1/2006 17:47

Hi,

Interesting to note that some large trades went through in BILL today (at 85p) without affecting the price. This can sometimes indicate the bottom following a dip in price.

However, I also note that some large protected/cross trades went through at 95p on 13th and 14th December - but this was before the offer was announced on the 15th.

In any case, I bought some today (cheers Martin) as I can't see much downside from here assuming that trading is okay, and that the acquisiton goes smoothly.

Cheers,

Chris

[doubleorquits] 30/12/2005 23:09

I hold both and I agree JS. FWIW with BILL on a PE of 7 at the arb rate the UCL option looks the best. I also think if BILL are serious about a speedy move to the Main Market then it would need to be done by about Feb 8th to qualify for the SMX in March. The next option would mean waiting until June. Whatever happens once the uncertainty is over these should re-rate, particularly with BILL. A SMX entry would lead to tracker buying (from almost nothing held as it is to the trackers buying enough stock to track a £250m or so company).

EVBG have a target of 145p (from memory) on BILL which at the current arb rate with UCL suggests they could double. Even then a PE of 14 looks reasonable value to me.

Just need to remove the uncertainty IMO.

[mach10] 30/12/2005 22:13

I think you're on the money there Jeff. And with today's fall that's a 14% arb I suppose at 103p.I guess the only downside is that markets hate uncertainty and the longer it drags out the greater the drag on the share price. FWIW I don't think I've seen in my 10 years of investing such a double whammy in both SP's after what was at the time of the announcement a nil premium merger. I hold BILL otherwise I would follow your advice and buy UCL.

[jeffsmith] 30/12/2005 19:59

At 105p (net) buying UCL with the conversion to BILL @ 1.385 means a buying price of BILL of 75.8p against a market quote of 86p. A 13% guaranteed increase if the current prices hold. This surely makes UCL a buy at these levels. With BILL's increased market presence and synergies with UCL they can't fall much further and might even rise. If the takeover falls through, UCL will, in my opinion, rise to more realistic levels. I think that there's an opportunity here.DYOR.

JS.

[nurdin] 22/12/2005 17:15

Fair point Wiganer but its early days yet.The company reported free cashflow of $4m+ at the interim stage without the benefit of the recent acquisitions.These should start generating cash in the coming year and no doubt the earnings will well cover the interest due on their borrowing.I feel that a pe of 7.5 for 06 more than discounts the risks associated with the current state of their balance sheet...

[wiganer] 22/12/2005 15:20

I am tempted, but am underwhelmed by BILL's fundies, especially the balance sheet which looks a bit flaky. The risk is to get locked into BILL as their share price continues its downwards drift, which is presumably what made that tute jump ship on UCL.

All-in-all a tempter, but not one to jump into lightly. Will mull over at christmas.

Talking of which- have a cool Yule y'all!

[hindsight] 22/12/2005 15:14

Well for what its worth I doubled up today, think whatever happens once the dust has settled todays price of UCL or be it BILL will look low

[nurdin] 22/12/2005 11:09

Spoke to the company regarding the share price retrenchment.Seems one Institutional holder (not a big holder) didnt want to be bothered with the all share offer and has been selling.Also advised their clients to sell.Hence the drop.Nothing serious imo.

[nurdin] 22/12/2005 10:18

I think this is a done deal.All the acceptances will come right at the end.

BILL seems to be growing rapidly,with EVBG forecasting eps of 5.3p for 05,doubling to 10.5p next year..and thats without the UCL contribution.
Interestingly buying UCL now at 108p is equivalent to buying BILL at 78p based on 1.385:1 ratio.On that basis you are buying into a fast growing company at a multiple of just 7.5...which looks dirt cheap.I havent calculated the dilutive effect of the new shares but dare say that will be compansated by the UCLs earnings.
Opportunities like these come rarely imo!

[boadicea] 20/12/2005 11:46

So what's going on this morning?
UCL appears to be following BILL (not particularly surprising) but there is no obvious reason for the drop in BILL.
Has there been a news leak?
No-one has asked for my shares yet to add to the 30.6% and until now it has not looked like they would get enough acceptances.
Is today's drop a manipulative attempt to make the BILL offer look a little less stingy?
Questions, questions!
Is it time to sell or time to buy???
When manipulation is rife it often pays to do the opposite of conventional wisdom, which is what the manipulation works on. So if it looks like a sell perhaps I should buy - but there is no way for the honest punter to know. Inside knowledge has the upper hand as always.
On balance, I think this is a shake to panic the pi, so be suspicious but do not take this as advice.... DYOR.

[rambutan2] 15/12/2005 22:28

confirmation of bid. fwiw, i won't be accepting...

Transaction Highlights

• Recommended all share offer to be made by Evolution Securities, on
behalf of BSG for all of the existing issued share capital of United
Clearing Plc.
• The Offer is being made on the basis of 1.385 New BSG Shares for each
United Clearing Share.
• The Offer values each United Clearing Share at approximately 131.6 pence
and all of the existing issued United Clearing Shares at approximately
£23.5m, on the basis of the Closing Price of 95 pence per BSG Share on 14
December 2005 (being the last business day prior to the publication of this
document). This represents a premium of 8.3 per cent. over the Closing
Price of United Clearing on 14 December 2005 (being the last business day prior to the announcement of this Offer) and a premium of 14.9 per cent. over the Closing Price of United Clearing on 11 October 2005 (being the last business day prior to the commencement of the offer period).
• As at the date of this announcement, BSG has received irrevocable
commitments to accept the Offer in respect of 5,467,609 United Clearing
Shares (representing approximately 30.6 per cent of the existing issued
share capital of United Clearing).

[boadicea] 12/12/2005 12:19

Due to its short public history, not helped by the format of its accounts (including accounting in US$), I find BILL very hard to evaluate.

[jeffsmith] 12/12/2005 10:32

I'm inclined to agree. The offer would seem to suggest that 132p is a minimum value and anyone selling at below this price is being a little premature. However, BILL would seem to be going along the same business track as UCL only on a larger scale and their shares might prove to be a good investment in the long term also.
JS

[boadicea] 12/12/2005 09:14

Too cheap?
That question is possibly unanswerable if it is a paper swap offer as it depends on the value being put on the BILL shares. I can only assume that the 132p suggestion is based on the current price of BILL shares and my own feeling is that this would be too cheap as I rate UCL a better prospect, at least in the near future.
All imho and dyor.

[jeffsmith] 12/12/2005 08:10

BILL are offering 132p for UCL, in share exchange equivalent, it would appear by today's announcement. Too cheap?
JS

[rambutan2] 11/12/2005 22:20

yes, also saw that. they say that could be as soon as this week. £25m = 150p.

[zimbi] 11/12/2005 14:56

According to the Telegraph

Billing Services Group, one of the largest companies on London's Alternative Investment Market, is to acquire United Clearing, its smaller rival, for £25m, in a prelude to moving into the main FTSE index.

[hindsight] 09/12/2005 16:41

Does todays lift indicate a bid offer will appear over the weekend ?

[shaft] 25/11/2005 11:40

NTV

Its gone very quiet round here since the mention of a possible bid approach, and/or a possible aquisition, could be a good sign, and a nice Christmas present.

[ntv] 24/11/2005 09:50

about time these went up again i think

[boadicea] 14/11/2005 13:33

hounddog/rambutan -
There is no definitive answer to the value of this stock until it is revealed in the effluction of time. In other words, its valuation is entirely dependent on what assumptions of the future you deem to be reasonable.
What we do know is that the business has relatively fixed overheads and that the drop-through to the bottom line of any change in gross revenue is very high.
On this basis, a forward projection based on recent growth rates roughly justifies the present price imho. If exponential growth were assumed (which would be super-optimistic imo) then the present valuation would look distinctly modest. We do not yet seem to be in a market saturation phase although this will arrive eventually.
It is the quasi-fixed overhead situation that makes consolidation in the industry so attractive and gives a takeover valuation potential above the intrinsic stand-alone value. This feature is enhanced as the saturation phase is approached and organic growth becomes more difficult. Buying out competion is also more profitable than squeezing it out with margin pressure and the consumer is therefore more likely to suffer than the investor. Getting agreement on regulatory anti-monopoly action is difficult in the international arena, so this type of business in general looks set for interesting and profitable progress in the foreseeable future.

I wouldn't pick UCL as the only payment processing/settlement stock to back, but given its current growth rate it deserves to be included in a selection of three or more.
All imho and dyor.

[rambutan2] 14/11/2005 12:31

thanks for the answer hounddog, believe it or not my only interest in ucl is via a v few shares. but whether a large or a small holding, i like to try and follow what's going on and keep on my toes - you never know what gem (positive or negative) you might come across.

over the years i have been on advfn i have learnt to take an interest when a poster like yourself appears. whatever your reasons for posting, your points of view are worth noting and i look forward to reading them. however, i will of course treat them with caution.

regards
rambutan

[hounddog1] 14/11/2005 10:52

I am glad that my thoughts are of so much interest to you rambutan! Seems to me that you have more than just money involved in this stock!!

Perhaps you could say that I am the voice of reason in what is a crazy stock and dangerously overvalued stock! Pointing out possible news & rumours I find as well as issues of concern for fellow contributors to use or ignore. I like puzzles and this stock is a little like a puzzle! The pieces are there but the picture keeps changing!

[rambutan2] 13/11/2005 00:37

hounddog, do you have an agenda? i am a great believer in using these threads as a means of sounding out views, both positive and negative, but perhaps you seem a bit more negative than necessary? your first post was...

hounddog1 - 28 Sep'05 - 09:22 - 187 of 248

Can anyone help?

Have heared a nasty rumour that UCL is being investigated for insider dealing. Large number of shares being bought and sold by the board?

It was worrying enough to see the CEO and MD sell a significant holding at a massive discount to the then market price!

Any thoughts anyone?


followed by you saying that you'd sold out...


hounddog1 - 29 Sep'05 - 02:19 - 191 of 248

Also concerned about recent share price slippage - another 2p today! Combined with market gossip re insider dealing, news being a little thin re major mobile phone operator contract wins 'framework agreement' do not count as deals in my line of business. So makes for cautious times. As a consequence sold all my holding on Tuesday.

ppowerscourt - what makes you confident on future prospects?

The company announced a while ago that it was looking at using some / all of its cash pile to make strategic acquisitions. Still no news on this front? Maybe it should use this to return some money to shareholders.

Year end report this Friday so should be interesting......


followed by a series of querying posts. now, that's not to say that you havent raised a worthwhile line of thought on the fx and lack of clarity on earnings, which i aim to follow up. but, what's you game?

regards
rambutan