United Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[mcpaulas] 08/3/2019 07:46

Ready to take advantage of the inevitable kicking.

[spangle93] 08/3/2019 07:43

Soulsauce - isn't that always the case, even though it appears from the lack of meaningful comments on any of the partners' ADVFN BB's this week, no-one really expected major success. As soon as you saw "Colter results" on a Friday morning, you knew what was coming.

Probably a little early to think rationally, but as far as I see it, nothing much has changed, except we're probably set back by a year to 18 months and £1MM. There's still a discovery south of Wytch Farm targeting 15 MMbbl or so, which will need appraisal before development. It's just not the same one as we started with.

Perhaps we'll get an addditional kicking cos despite the hot air from the CEO, there's not a whole lot of meaningful action on the published schedule for the next few months, if not 2019, so I could see folk taking what's left and from here and investing it ( and probably losing it - doh) somewhere else in the meantime

[soulsauce] 08/3/2019 07:33

Sidetrack a bust. Even though Colter south hasn't added us any value share price wise I am sure we will still get a kicking today 😕

[fbrj] 05/3/2019 20:44

bobby1904 - I don't think there is any big deal here - a valid point was raised whether new approvals were needed for the sidetrack, as the various RNSs were not 100% crystal clear. We now know - through helpful posts from Grannyboy and others - that permits are in place. So, point dealt with.

What we don't know is what is exactly "down there"! Hopefully, BL's infectious enthusiasm is justified and we will know soon enough and will be singing his praises (and congratulating ourselves on our "judgement/investment expertise"!)

Personally, at the moment, I continue to give BL and his team the benefit of the doubt but I think we are at quite an important juncture because although one could argue that the portfolio has been gradually derisked as various results have come in (and we probably all accept that the structure of the portfolio/assets spreads the overall risk) - nevertheless, the share price has done no more than basically sidetrack over the last 15 months.

PIs (and let's not kid ourselves, there are probably no institutional investors in UOG - in the accepted meaning of the word) are pretty fickle and can get easily bored and move on. We need a meaningful "something" to trigger some upward momentum, otherwise we will just continue to drift down (now at 4p bid). Many are "in" at higher prices and the danger is that if things continue to drift, for much longer, any subsequent upward rerating will merely get sold into.

Anyway, enough rambling - onwards and upwards! I've continued to add below 4.50p....hope I won't regret it!

[bobby1904] 05/3/2019 17:45

What actually is your point?? You refer to the permit applied for on 24th Feb. Of which there are 2 on the schedule & both have been approved & end date extended to 24th March!

[spangle93] 05/3/2019 15:04

Because in OGA-speak, a sidetrack is a completely separate capital entity.

The key in that table, that Grannyboy had referenced earlier, is the permit applied for on 24th Feb.

[snickerdog] 05/3/2019 14:51

Not sure why débating whether permits are there or not https://itportal.beis.gov.uk/eng/foxClick 2019 and scroll to around the bottom - one can see that the necessary drilling permits for Colter have been extended to end of March

[croasdalelfc] 05/3/2019 14:02

The Brian Larkin interview on Vox stated sidetrack to begin within 24 hours -

[grannyboy] 05/3/2019 12:53

If you go to the RBD thread and a post(3076) by steelwatch, go on the link and to the box where it says 'Select a year', it states that the permits for the sidetrack had been approved..you NEED to go right down to the bottom of the list.

[spangle93] 05/3/2019 12:14

Thanks fbrj - I was thinking more pragmatically that it's in no-ones interest but Ensco's if a rig on more than $100k/day is left sitting around while pen pushers approve a licence to drill a sidetrack, so I imagine it happens in parallel.

Given's wee Brian's exciteable performance on the video link, jumping up and down and clapping his hands with glee, it's surprising how quiet the ADVFN bulletin boards are, here and at BOIL.

You've got a reply, BTW

[fbrj] 05/3/2019 11:50

Corallian announced the spud of Coulter on 6 Feb, expected to take 3 weeks (with approval to complete by end Feb).

On 19th Feb environmental approval to extend drilling to end March was granted by the regulator OPRED (on the basis of "weather delays" at Wick and during the tow to Poole).

Corallain may/must have known before the application to extend was submitted that Ensco 72 was - as they put it on 25 Feb - "unexpectedly" on the southern side of Coulter. Mind you, I don't known when this extension application was actually submitted.

I don't know what other approvals might be required but I think if there are, the 25 Feb announcements could be considered to be highly misleading as there was no hint of other approvals being required and the whole tone was that approximately 2 weeks was needed to complete - ie around 11 March.

[spangle93] 05/3/2019 10:07

Can anyone help my confusion...

Has the Colter sidetrack started, or are we waiting for an announcement? What is meant by "preparations" in the RNS quote below.

The Colter RNS was written as future tense
"The joint venture has commenced preparations to side-track the 98/11a-6 well. The side-track will be drilled directionally... and will take approximately two weeks to complete"

The BOIL version is more current "We are now moving forward with the side-track..."

Operationally it would be more straightforward to just carry on with operations as per BOIL's announcement but I'm not sure if they need some approvals/dispensations from authorities.

[spangle93] 04/3/2019 08:26

Fbrj - yes, that was the standout oddball comment of the RNS. Like, "oops, how did that happen?".

No it doesn't happen often, but this part of the world has pretty warped geology thanks to the Alpine orogeny (oo-er). The document notes "The interpretation of the Top Sherwood event is challenging due to structural complexity and poor seismic signal below fast and steeply dipping chalk sediments at the surface". Also, from the 98/11-3 well to the mapped top of the structure is around 700m, and they were trying to hit the top, which is immediately adjacent to the fault, so any misplacement of the fault would have them down the wrong side.

In contrast, most E&A wells don't have to be so accurate, and aren't so "blessed" with complex overburden.

I'll send you a private thought through IM - check the red envelope box in the header.

Edit - I should also have said that ERCE, the CPR, did not create their own seismic model, but instead they validated that the work done by partners was sound. This is normal practice for CPRs, but I just wanted to point out that they didn't have an independent model

[fbrj] 03/3/2019 23:46

Spangle - thanks for your post and clear explanation re East West South and North and the other information you provided about Colter. I still find it a little strange about the 'mistake' location of first drill effort - or is that something that occurs quite often? Let's hope the current one goes where intended!

[spangle93] 02/3/2019 08:35

@fbrj ref 1166

Sorry for the delay in finding time to look at the AIM doc, ref Colter.

ERCE, the CPR, does not consider or mention the block that the current well appears to have intersected. What Brian calls Colter South is not assessed.

There is a historical comment "Well 98/11-1 was drilled in 1983 to test fault seal at Bridport and Sherwood sandstone horizons, and encountered what was considered at the time to be sub-economic oil in a rotated fault block down-thrown to the south of the Colter discovery..... Well 98/11-1, drilled in the small fault block to the south of Well 98/11-3, appears to exhibit similar good quality reservoir properties, but only minor hydrocarbon saturation. Good fluorescence is noted, with bleeding oil observed in core, but no gas shows were observed.... A DST performed on Well 98/11-1 flowed water only, again consistent with a minor/residual hydrocarbon accumulation in this fault block, despite similar reservoir quality to Well 98/11-3"

In other words, ERCE didn't waste much time on Colter South. The way that it's mapped (e.g fig 2.9 on page 157/261 also indicates they consider the block small.

Now, it's worth saying that the view of a CPR is no better or worse than the operator or partners. It's independent, yes, but unlike the partners who study it forensically every day, the CPR gets a short period to review the material cold. Also, it was issued while the well was being drilled. It's therefore not inconsistent with our CEO's gushings, which have the benefit of early results from the first bore. Though I think he was talking of a possibly big accumulation to the south of colter 6 months ago...

Moving on

Colter East and Colter West in the CPR together comprise what partners call Colter, or now, Colter North, i.e. what the sidetrack seeks to penetrate. Fig 2.9 illustrates the split. The fly in the ointment is what's shown as a significant fault that runs NW to SE up to the crest of the structure - it's not as big as the fault to the south that splits Colter south from Colter North, but the seismic resolution and lack of test in the Old Harry well to the west are not unambiguous enough to determine whether the East and West side of the fault are separate accumulations.

So, partners talk of Colter, or Colter North, but the CPR splits it into 2 (see fig 2.13 if you're interested).

- Colter East, containing the discovery well, with 4 MMbbl 2C contingent resources (no mean figure provided) and 75% probability of development

- Colter West, the Old harry side of the fault, with 15 MMbbl mean prospective resource (11 MMbbl 2C, so distribution is skewed to the downside) and 50% chance of success

Contrast this with, e.g. the BOIL October presentation, slide 6, where the same fault is not shown as extending to the top of Colter, in which case you could consider it as a single "Colter North" accumulation containing the discovery well, and therefore all classifiable as contingent resources.

I don't know whether the sidetrack is being drilled into the "east" or "west" side as defined by ERCE, but I hope it's away from that NW/SE fault they map so we get an unequivocal result. Ideally, since the larger and less certain resource are in "Colter West", I hope they'd go for that one, cos if they are separate, Colter East is barely economic on a standalone basis, and I can't see the overall Colter economics or the environmentalists supporting another rig appraisal campaign.

Does that add a little flavour?

[pauliewonder] 01/3/2019 12:34

Qualifies for no stamp duty and also iht free (if meeting certain conditions). Cheaper listing costs too I believe

[chinadog3] 01/3/2019 10:17

Take AIM, and dont think it is just for costs savings! Good step-in my view: bigger shop window fore a start

[bountyhunter] 01/3/2019 08:37

SQZ pulled off a huge deal last year and is AIM listed.

[danny baker] 01/3/2019 08:24

I would be interested to know more about these supposed significant cost and administrative savings from moving from a standard listing to AIM. RRE can pull off huge deals with a standard listing. Small listed companies even with a premium listing can live very frugally without the £40-50k plus annual expense of a nomad and broker. I understand that most speculative oil shares are on the AIM market and there is safety in numbers but using cost savings as a justification doesn't wash with me.

[bobby1904] 01/3/2019 07:33

Good morning AIM!

[soulsauce] 28/2/2019 18:50

Goodbye standard list, hello Aim.

Let's hope the tracking sideways for nearly a year is coming to an end.

[bountyhunter] 28/2/2019 17:58

Do I have a stalker lol?
Don't answer that one!

[fardels bear] 28/2/2019 15:58

Bloody hell, not you again.

[fbrj] 28/2/2019 09:45

An interesting twitter link (from share_talk on lse bb)

Scroll down to last couple of items (bbc south east and bournemouth echo)




Incidentally, why does CPR (Admission Document)refer to Colter East and West, whereas recent RNSs refer to Colter North and South?