Ukrproduct Share Discussion Threads

[freddie ferret] 13/8/2013 14:09

Building uptrend IMHO since September.

[aleman] 13/8/2013 11:37

Double post Editted.

It should be about 4 weeks to results. There seems to be a lot of activity in tiddlers ahead of the interim results season. The AIM indices have been flying recently.

[aleman] 13/8/2013 11:37

HHmmm... Price going up with each buy - including mine yesterday, which isn't showing. But only the offer going up so the spread's getting ridiculous. Looks like the MMs have no stock.

[aleman] 12/8/2013 13:21

I wouldn't worry too much about this year. H1 will be weak and H2 strong, which is better than the other way around. Earnings in total may be under 3p or not but should still be better than last year, with prospects for 2014 looking very good, with a fat dividend looking quite likely. The shares look undervalued for a company on the up.

[valhamos] 07/8/2013 21:20

Difficult to read from last week's trading update if we are still on for 3p eps this year. Anyone have any views?

EBITDA similar to last year, though dairy margins were affected by higher input prices until consumer prices could be increased in April; this was offset by greater volumes and continued growth in kvass. However profit will be lower because of higher interest charges.

But "management see more appropriate trading profitability restored" for the H2.

[mrphil] 15/7/2013 15:16

Aleman, as has been said here before, the spread is pretty wide although not quite as much as advfn suggests. Just checked with hl and it's 13.75p to buy and 12.01p to sell.

EDIT: Might need to top up to get myself a more meaningful amount in the SIPP ;-)

[aleman] 15/7/2013 13:01

THey've been forgotten. It sometimes takes a few lots of good news to get shares going again when they have fallen off the radar. I think we're due a trading update this week ahead of interims in 2 months. Forecasts are good so it could be a period when the shares pick up a touch.

[mrphil] 15/7/2013 11:12

Aleman, that report seemed to lead to just the tiniest hint of a rise in the share price Wonder what has to happen to really get it moving?

[aleman] 11/7/2013 14:40

I figured a big part of the reason this was so cheap was corporate governance fears, so this interesting:

On May 29, 2013 Concorde Capital investment company announced the results of the study 'Corporate Governance in Ukraine - 2013' and updated ratings of corporate governance practices in the Ukrainian listed companies.

The aim of the study was to provide investors with the tools to better understand the corporate governance practices in the Ukrainian companies in order to make sound investment decisions. The project covered 111 companies operating in Ukraine who, issued either shares, or bonds traded on the Ukrainian and international stock exchanges.

According to the study, Ukrproduct Group Ltd was listed among the five companies that received the highest score - 10.0 out of 10.0. The evaluation took place based on ten criteria: audited IFRS financial statements, the quality of reporting, corporate information, ownership structure, the presence of institutional investors, strategic risks, the representation of minority interests in the controlling bodies, management availability, the level of publicity and the quality of the website.



The full version of the report is available on the Company web-site www.ukrproduct.com.

[puku] 29/5/2013 13:01

if only the spread was reasonable !!!!

[aleman] 20/5/2013 16:40

The revised forecast since the results still looks pretty strong and now includes the expected dividends.
Actual
31-Dec-11 50.52 0.83 1.00p 12.4 n/a -63% n/a 0.0%
31-Dec-12 60.21 1.18 2.09p 4.8 0.0 +109% n/a 0.0%
Forecasted
31-Dec-13 61.60 1.70 3.00p 4.4 0.1 +44% 0.70p 5.3%
31-Dec-14 65.00 2.20 3.90p 3.4 0.1 +30% 1.00p 7.5%

[valhamos] 17/4/2013 13:07

Greedfear, Yes I agree - based on the first phase of the cost optimisation capex at the Starokostiantyniv Dairy Plant and expected growth in kvass I was thinking H2 would be a bit more and that the H1 weighting would reduce to that seen a couple of years ago.

Still firm progress and hopefully more to come - should resume dividends later this year when major capex work completed.

[greedfear] 17/4/2013 09:25

Okay numbers, not bad, but I did expect better.

[mrphil] 17/4/2013 08:34

Me too. Mine are down around 22% now, but they are only just under 1% of the SIPP value so will tuck them away for now.

[aleman] 17/4/2013 08:28

Not really. Cashflow looks weak superficially but they've been investing a lot more than depreciation on capex and receivables rose strongly again on higher turnover. It is cost savings from modernising equipment that is much of the reason for the strengthening forecasts. I suspect updated forecasts may help a bit in a day or two but I doubt we'll see a great deal of action here until we see the stronger H1 numbers for 2013 in September. The mix of rising turnover and cost savings could be quite potent but it's fair enough there will be doubts about markets and political risk given recent years and it may take a return of the dividend to see a rerating. I'll see what new forecasts say and then probably just forget about them until the interims.

[mrphil] 17/4/2013 08:16

Aleman, the fall doesn't make sense imho?

[greedfear] 28/2/2013 14:30

Starting to look really nice added 5k (no more funds...100% invested).

edit: not 100% in UKR ofcourse.

[valhamos] 28/2/2013 13:51

Seems to have firmly broken out. Good bowl on the chart.

[valhamos] 26/2/2013 19:31

Bought another 25k shares on Friday.

Good to see some strong buying this morning (with volume 7 times the 30 day average) - a sign of increased interest in this value share on a current year P/E of 4 and at less than a third of book value.

[greedfear] 15/2/2013 16:04

Valhamos- I agree and I did not know about that broker forecast. Maybe it's an old one? Because, like you say, it would not make sense taking the recent statement into account.

[valhamos] 15/2/2013 15:27

Greedfear

I did some work on this company this morning and decided to buy 40k.
A certain amount of country/political risk together with two directors owning 70% of the shares (to some extent assuaged by Jack Rowell being chairman), but I agree the financial numbers looked too appealing for me to pass over.

One thing I couldn't work out was why the broker forecast for full year 2012
is 1.6p when they did that in H1. Especially in the light of the recent statement.

[greedfear] 15/2/2013 15:01

Earnings per share for the first half year 2012 (30/6) was 1.6p.

As it looks like continuous improvements I'm thinking a 2012 eps of 4p.

So we're talking of P/E of only 3.

NAV is 48p (30/6) so it's trading at 25% of that.


It's a bargain.

[greedfear] 15/2/2013 14:57

It's coming to life and it should!

A truly great trading statement for the year ended 2012:

"The butter market (...) increase in gross profitability (...)

The market of processed cheese (...) Sales showed a material increase (...)the gross profit to show an even more significant increase (...)

hard cheese (...)market position and profitability are growing (...)

BEVERAGES - sales demonstrated a significant increase (...) an encouraging growth in gross profitability unhindered by the economic environment. (...)

FINANCIALLY an encouraging improvement year on year. The expected sales and margins will have a very positive affect on EBITDA. This trend will run through to Net Income level though after absorbing the higher interest charges induced by the EBRD loan.